zanahoria wrote: ↑27 Nov 2021, 21:33
R686 wrote: ↑27 Nov 2021, 18:54
Its supposedly a response to covid that supply chains are having problems, but I tend to think its a bit of both covid and setting up the new protocols from within EU, its not like that they have actually moved away from the current standards yet I dont see a real big problem with it
If the UK keeps postponing the checks of EU goods, doesn’t the WTO get involved at some stage to demand the same treatment for all other exporters to the UK?
I imagine that there would be a litmus test, but with the pandemic and all nations impacted the EU is getting a free ride in this regard, hence why I am skeptical on the EU response to ant invocation to A16 of the NIP from the EU at trade will be impacted both ways
zanahoria wrote: ↑27 Nov 2021, 21:33R686 wrote: ↑27 Nov 2021, 18:43
in the years to come I expect the UK economy to diversify and continue once covid problems recede
How many years would be reasonable? Rees Mogg mentioned something like 50 - not quite how Brexit was sold to the masses in 2016. Diversify how?
You are being a little bit dishonest with that comment, he actually said the overwhelming opportunity for Brexit is over the next 50 years, which is correct after all is was a little over 10 years from joining the EU that UK manufacturing really declined
nothing more attests to this than the October 2013 government report “Future of Manufacturing”1951 and 1973 metals output rose 3% a year. Since joining the EEC/EU it has declined by more than 6% Between 1951 and 1973 food and drink output rose by 5.6% per year. Since joining the EEC/EU it has fallen by 1% a year. Between 1951 and 1973 textiles output expanded at 2.6% a year. Since joining the EEC/EU it has fallen by more than 6% a year.
It wasn't all Beer and skittles when we joined the EEC, NZ is a good show case for diversify trade than relying on the EU after all the shock to its economy when the UK joined the EEC
zanahoria wrote: ↑27 Nov 2021, 21:33
Do you mean less services and a rebalancing back to long departed heavy industry? Or still mainly services but greater emphasis on the fintech and AI? The former won’t happen and I think the latter will struggle to make up for the less efficient trading relationship the UK now has with the EU. I read the articles you linked (thank you for posting them) and I was hoping there would be a bit more detail about how the UK could become a significant economic threat to the EU. All the industries mentioned are less attractive/more constrained outside the EU.
I agree heavy industry wont go back to the halcyon days of the past, but the UK can be smarter in ensuring what remains by having a vibrant future giving precedent to home grown manufacturing instead of EU public tendering rules in which every member nation can bid, would the UK economy exceed all expectations and become larger overall than the EU combined, no can the UK still hold its place within the top economies around the world, yes I think it can
zanahoria wrote: ↑27 Nov 2021, 21:33
Take education: no ERASMUS so no free flowing academic exchanges with the highly educated population on the UK’s doorstep. UK students I suppose have the Turing exchange program, but that favours students from wealthier backgrounds who can afford to travel to the US or Australia. Financial services are also diminished. Of course London is still important, but tax receipts will have been reduced when some operations move to Dublin, Frankfurt, Amsterdam and Paris.
it appears ERASMUS is not all its cracked up to be
https://www.facts4eu.org/news/2021_aug_ ... ths_busted#
zanahoria wrote: ↑27 Nov 2021, 21:33
When Politic describes a closer relationship with the US in terms of “subjugation”:
“Even subjugation brings the benefits of proximity, relevance and inclusion in Washington’s wider geopolitical strategies.”
That’s not exactly sovereignty is it? At least the UK had a veto in the EU.
Maybe Brexit will be deemed a success in 50 years. Personally I can’t help thinking that it’s more about lining the pockets of billionaires, protecting tax havens, denying oversight over money laundering & tax avoidance than actually benefitting the majority of the people that live there.
What you conflict subjugation and sovereignty mean that the UK can either freely enter into it or not,
Under the EU veto rules are not really understood depending on what level of government we are talking about, some might need a majority to side with it to veto a proposal.
When a veto is not a veto
https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/6023507/w ... y-council/
https://billothewisp.blogspot.com/2016/ ... -used.html