Brexit - The UK's EU Referendum & Withdrawal

[ArmChairCivvy]

What chances now I ask myself for corbyn team to be at number 10

According to The Times of today, they realise that the chances of bringing the Gvmnt down are quite low, so instead they will:
- propose a no confidence vote in Mrs. May's ability to be the PM
- one of the very few good ideas from Corbyn (if it was an idea hatched by him )

[ArmChairCivvy]

definition of Brexit open to debate, but if they thwart it totally it's game over for the Tories

Ms Rudd defined the corridor in which to bounce that ball (if the PM's motion loses on Tue) as:
- soft Norway+
- or People's vote (on what? No Brexit at all?)
... or anything in between
She had borrowed Emily Maitlis' stylist/ make-up artist for the (The Times) photo shoots... quite a good result
- the PM "aint gonna go anywhere"... but "I am starting my campaign, just in case"

The wording was "quite a bit of support" for the former (N+), and "some support" for the latter (PV).
- whether she was talking about Tory MPs or all of them, seemed to be more about the latter. Like "we are in a cul de sac, and I have an open mind as to get 'us all' out of it"

[Dave]

What chances now I ask myself for corbyn team to be at number 10 and putting his great military history and ambition on all our plans or discussion on various subjects on here after Tuesday vote ,just that one step closer I think

God, please no.

Don’t even think of it...

[Scimitar54]

Pigs might fly

[ArmChairCivvy]

Don’t even think of it...

Corby himself has given up... but there is a cunning plan (that many, after this Chinese water torture, might buy into)

[ArmChairCivvy]

On the other hand, these folks talk about the "will of the people", but cannot stop mentioning "taking their cheque books out" ... again
" Billionaire financier Peter Hargreaves said there would be "no Brexit" because politicians "are cowards".
Investment manager Jeremy Hosking, a major shareholder in Crystal Palace football club, said Mrs May's deal would put the UK "in a straitjacket".
Stuart Wheeler, founder of spreadbetting giant IG Index, said the UK had been reduced to "subservient begging".

What they told Sky News... is there.
Well, a Brexit party coming? Now that the previous edition has gone off the rails. Yep, there is time (to try and mend it)

[ArmChairCivvy]

Guardian's count of amendments, so far, makes it too easy for the Speaker. Only 5? When he can choose 6 (if there are more proposals than that).

"Benn’s amendment ['no to no deal'] was one of five submitted on Thursday, but appears to be the one most likely to cause serious difficulties for May. A Labour frontbench amendment rejecting May’s deal submitted by Jeremy Corbyn was announced earlier this week – but it is unlikely to attract any Conservative support.

Three backbenchers, the Conservatives Sir Edward Leigh and Giles Watling, plus independent former Labour MP Frank Field, also put down amendments that try to neutralise the Northern Irish backstop, amid concern that it could be used by the EU to trap the UK in an indefinite customs union."

Things done in isolation will have no bearing on an international treaty, and what makes Benn’s amendment of interest
- is that he is also the Chair of the x-party committee on these (Brexiting) matters
- and avoids the People's Vote (divisive in itself) topic completely.

[ArmChairCivvy]

Frankly, I see Benn amendment (proposed) as a "super" Grieve (adopted) and in that light these statements from Skynews (rolling edition) are interesting (and just go to show where one ends up by not doing proper analysis before starting to negotiate):

"Grieve[...] adds he's "not very interested in finding a new leader" because the process would be "disastrous" at such a pivotal time for the country.
10:26

Could the UK end up with a Norway-style deal?

Grieve tells Sky News there's very little appetite from Norway [comma] from the countries in the arrangement [closing comma] from letting the UK [in], for fear of us "treating it as a bed and breakfast".

[ArmChairCivvy]

The only thing that happened is that
"Against the euro, the pound was down 0.6% at 1.10 euro."
calculating your holiday money is now easy
... will be easier still when parity is reached

Like in 1973 the tabloids were screaming "The £ is going to H@ll... parity is close!"
- well, you can melt your currency if there are hidden strengths; we'll have to find them plenty quick

[ArmChairCivvy]

"Conservative MP Justine Greening says on discussion with the library, the requirement for a statement from the prime minister in the case of a no deal to be made by 21 January has been superseded because of her statement today.

She says in this view "the latest we could have the meaningful vote would be 28 March".

Errr...
Brexit day has changed? or not
- ability to call a GE... or whatever "remedy"

Henry... add some roman v...iii...

[Pseudo]

Given the ECJ judgement yesterday parliament can legislate to give the government the power to unilaterally withdraw its Article 50 notification in order to re-submit it and either spend the next two years negotiating a better deal or spend it preparing for hard-Brexit.

The problem with the former is that if the government started talking in those terms the EU would almost certainly immediately take the deal May has negotiated off the table and make it clear that it won't be prepared to negotiate any other deal.

The problem with the latter is that the parliamentary math for legislation giving the government the power to revoke Article 50 probably won't look a lot different to the Withdrawal Agreement vote. May will almost certainly gain the support of the ERG and DUP members, but she'd likely lose support at the other end from members who were voting for the Withdrawal Agreement because they don't want to risk No Deal.

[SKB]

We already have a deal. Its called WTO and we've been using it since 1 January 1995. And guess who else is a WTO member? The EU.

[Pseudo]

We already have a deal. Its called WTO and we've been using it since 1 January 1995 to trade with non EU countries.

The UK doesn't have vast integrated supply chains reliant on common regulatory and customs rules with non-EU countries.

[SKB]

We used to. We can restore or make them again on WTO rules.

[Pseudo]

We used to. We can restore or make them again on WTO rules.

No. Prior to the UK's membership of the EU no UK manufacturer had supply chains anywhere near as integrated as the ones that many manufacturers have now. I don't even think that Just-in-Time manufacturing had spread outside of Japan when the UK joined the EU.

[ArmChairCivvy]

SKB wrote:
We already have a deal. Its called WTO

We can restore [the just-in-time supply chains] or make them again on WTO rules.

Are you sure?
- I wonder what makes you say that

don't even think that Just-in-Time manufacturing had spread outside of Japan when the UK joined the EU.

- but those same manufacturers have sure come here since... I wonder why

[SKB]

One example, we built Concorde before joining the EEC/EU, Concorde was a joint Anglo-French project that was built in a time with hard national borders.

[SKB]

Another example, we exported 156,000 Allied servicemen to the beaches of Normandy on the morning of 6 June 1944, and maintained supply lines for months and years afterwards

[ArmChairCivvy]

Sorry to butt in with the Conservative view from the Continent (Spiegel/ Springer):

A circus:
Verschobene Brexit-Abstimmung...kick the can down the road
Die Zirkusnummer... what a circus
Not for the Brussels folks, just for the May euro-elections

[SKB]

Remoaners: "We need to live, work and trade in Europe. Brexit denies us that!"

So we never lived or worked or had holidays in Europe before the 1992 Maastricht Treaty?!

It must be a mystery to Remoaners how a Frenchman managed to get across the English Channel in an age before EU Free Movement to visit the English village of Much Wenlock in the 19th century to watch its long held annual Olympian Games event which inspired him to return to France to create the International Olympic Commitee.

Or how the British set up a prestigious international film festival in the bright and sunny south of France. Pioneering British film makers had made Caan popular because of its bright sunny Mediterannean weather which was perfect for making early moving films in. (Also how Hollywood began, incidently)

Or how the Cresta Run bobsled races in St. Moritz, were invented by Britons holidaying in Switzerland in an age before the EU gave Britons "free access" to Europe.

[Pseudo]

One example, we built Concorde before joining the EEC/EU, Concorde was an Anglo-French project built in a time with hard national borders.

Concorde isn't an example of an integrated supply chain, entered service six years later than originally projected, had a unit cost six times more than originally projected, wasn't purchased by anyone other than the national carriers of the participating countries, and at £1.3bn the programme cost £1.23bn more than originally projected.

While the introduction of customs requirements might cause logistical issues in the shorter term, I think that the real issue for maintaining integrated production lines in the longer term is the added cost of customs requirements and tariffs. If a UK company currently makes a widget for a product made in France but the costs added by reverting to WTO rules make it cheaper for the French company to buy a Chinese widget or relocate the widget factory to another EU member state, then why would they continue to buy their widgets from the UK company?

Remainers: "We need to live and work in Europe"

So we never lived or worked or had holidays in Europe before the 1992 Maastricht Treaty?!

We didn't have a legal right to, no.

[SKB]

So you attempt to pick apart my Concorde example by highlighting its negatives? Typical remoaner negativity.

It was built, it was flown, and had a very low accident rate until the Paris crash and it was profitable until the 9/11 downturn. Who cares that other countries didn't buy them? Their loss.

[Pseudo]

So you attempt to pick apart my Concorde example by highlighting its negatives?

Yes, that's how debate works. Your Concorde argument isn't an argument because it is factually incorrect. You can't just talk rubbish and expect not to get called out on it, you're not Boris Johnson.

Typical remoaner

Are you sure that you want to assert that it's typical of "remoaners" to have a command of the facts? I've no argument if you do, but it's not really going to be helpful to your argument.

negativity.

Facts aren't positive or negative, they're just facts.

It was built, it was flown, it was profitable and had a very low accident rate until the Paris crash and the 9/11 downturn.

That as maybe, but that wasn't what you were arguing. You argued that Concorde represented a pre-EU membership integrated supply chain and that it was delivered on time, neither of which are true. It's also worth remembering that the development of Concorde required the negotiation of a bilateral international treaty between the French and British governments.

[ArmChairCivvy]

argument isn't an argument because it is factually incorrect. You can't just talk rubbish and expect not to get called out on it

... but a lot of folks try; and the next thing they say (to the counter-argument) that you are 'flat' wrong

Facts aren't positive or negative, they're just facts.

What a surprise... often facts are substantiated by quotes... and if he quotes are from the entity whose practices you are arguing about (as those practices, and their adherance to them them that they have to proclaim) prove you right ... then the other party to the argument
... carries on as if nothing had happened

[downsizer]

Another example, we exported 156,000 Allied servicemen to the beaches of Normandy on the morning of 6 June 1944, and maintained supply lines for months and years afterwards

What a stupid and crass statement.