Brexit - The UK's EU Referendum & Withdrawal

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Should the UK now withdraw from the Eurovision Song Contest ?!

:wave: Yes!
30
61%
:evil: No!
19
39%
 
Total votes: 49

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ArmChairCivvy
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Re: Brexit - The UK's EU Referendum & Withdrawal

Post by ArmChairCivvy »

dmereifield wrote:Thus, rendering the backstop unnecessary
I do note multiple question marks two lines further down

The deal (WTO) must be extraordinarily good [??? ;) ] when we have chosen to do - in total - 57% of our exports and 66% of our imports with countries thatwe have a better trade agreement with, as part of the EU or riding on their wing (40 more countries, to add to those who are in EU/ EEA).
- if we get rid of that Ireland backstop, let's start calling WTO terms ' a backstop' :lol:
Ever-lasting truths: Multi-year budgets/ planning by necessity have to address the painful questions; more often than not the Either-Or prevails over Both-And.
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Halidon
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Re: Brexit - The UK's EU Referendum & Withdrawal

Post by Halidon »

SKB wrote:"No Deal" is a misnomer, there is already a deal that the EU and UK both already have. It's called the WTO.
Coming 2020, Nigel Farange and BoJo Reunion tour: "Get the UK out of the WTO!"

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Re: Brexit - The UK's EU Referendum & Withdrawal

Post by dmereifield »

Halidon wrote:
SKB wrote:"No Deal" is a misnomer, there is already a deal that the EU and UK both already have. It's called the WTO.
Coming 2020, Nigel Farange and BoJo Reunion tour: "Get the UK out of the WTO!"
If May's deal goes through future campaigns will be fought, again, on manifestos pledging to leave the SM+CU (I.e. backstop)

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Re: Brexit - The UK's EU Referendum & Withdrawal

Post by R686 »

Appears to me that if the UK can get the mutual recognition agreement adopted by the UK and NZ with other 3rd countries maybe the only one having to trade under WTO rules will be the EU, since you export more to 3rd countries than EU the UK should at least have not too many worries going forward without a WA

https://www.tvnz.co.nz/one-news/world/n ... ant=tb_v_1

its the GFA becomes the hard part

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Re: Brexit - The UK's EU Referendum & Withdrawal

Post by dmereifield »

R686 wrote:Appears to me that if the UK can get the mutual recognition agreement adopted by the UK and NZ with other 3rd countries maybe the only one having to trade under WTO rules will be the EU, since you export more to 3rd countries than EU the UK should at least have not too many worries going forward without a WA

https://www.tvnz.co.nz/one-news/world/n ... ant=tb_v_1

its the GFA becomes the hard part
Sorry to disappoint, Parliamnet won't let us leave without a deal, therefore we will end up in a backstop with SM+CU, we won't be able to sign FTAs with NZ, or anyone else

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Re: Brexit - The UK's EU Referendum & Withdrawal

Post by ArmChairCivvy »

dmereifield wrote:be able to sign FTAs with NZ, or anyone else
2 done (Swiss template also agreed), 39 to go :D

Preparation, preparation, preparation... is 80% of the job. Where are we at with it? I think someone in the Parliament did ask ;)
Ever-lasting truths: Multi-year budgets/ planning by necessity have to address the painful questions; more often than not the Either-Or prevails over Both-And.
If everyone is thinking the same, then someone is not thinking (attributed to Patton)

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Re: Brexit - The UK's EU Referendum & Withdrawal

Post by ArmChairCivvy »

Sky News has, from amongst the 15, chosen
"key amendments:

:: Mr Benn is calling for a series of votes on Mrs May's deal, a re-negotiated deal, no-deal and a second referendum.

:: Sir Graham wants the backstop replaced with alternative arrangements, which while popular with Tory MPs is likely to be rejected by Brussels.

:: And Labour's Yvette Cooper wants time in parliament for a law to postpone Brexit if the Commons hasn't approved a deal by 26 February."
but has not offered analysis as to which can be mutually compatible.

The Speaker will have "his word" in about 24 hrs' time
- in the meanwhile I have put an order in with Amazon for a pair of flip-flops, to be delivered to BoJo's address in time for Tuesday... as he is at it :), again
Ever-lasting truths: Multi-year budgets/ planning by necessity have to address the painful questions; more often than not the Either-Or prevails over Both-And.
If everyone is thinking the same, then someone is not thinking (attributed to Patton)

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Re: Brexit - The UK's EU Referendum & Withdrawal

Post by ArmChairCivvy »

Rab was close to the end, before the start of voting:
""I want to send the prime minister back to Brussels with a strong and clear sense of what we..."

I guess a lot will still need to happen before that becomes "Timbuktoo"
Ever-lasting truths: Multi-year budgets/ planning by necessity have to address the painful questions; more often than not the Either-Or prevails over Both-And.
If everyone is thinking the same, then someone is not thinking (attributed to Patton)

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Re: Brexit - The UK's EU Referendum & Withdrawal

Post by SKB »

ArmChairCivvy wrote::: Mr Benn
:mrgreen:

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Re: Brexit - The UK's EU Referendum & Withdrawal

Post by SKB »

EU Withdrawal Amendment Vote Results:
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-47050665

Jeremy Corbyn (LAB) Amendment N - Defeated 327 to 296 :clap:

Ian Blackford (SNP) Amendment O - Defeated 327 to 39 :clap:

Dominic Grieve (CON) Amendment G - Defeated 321 to 301 :clap:

Yvette Cooper (LAB) Amendment B (Article 50 Extension) - Defeated 321 to 298 :clap: :thumbup:

Rachel Reeves (LAB) Amendment J - Defeated 322 to 290 :clap:

Dame Caroline Spelman (CON) Amendment I ("No Deal" advisory, no legislative power) - Passed 318 to 310 :thumbdown:

Sir Graham Brady (CON) Amendment N (Replace N.I. Backstop) - Passed 317 to 301 :clap: :thumbup:

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Re: Brexit - The UK's EU Referendum & Withdrawal

Post by ArmChairCivvy »

Rejecting no deal, accepting a delay and trading in 'vain wishes'. As for the last one
Votes in favour: 317
Votes against: 301
The amendment, which calls for the Irish border backstop to be "replaced with alternative arrangements"

And, as the below makes it obvious, we are nowhere near the chalk lines:
"“The EU27 and the commission have already prepared a reaction in case the Brady amendment passes this evening saying they will not renegotiate the withdrawal agreement,” an official told Bloomberg.

An EU official confirmed to the Guardian that such a response could be expected."

I wonder if Corbyn will talk Norway+ when he and the PM will now meet?
Ever-lasting truths: Multi-year budgets/ planning by necessity have to address the painful questions; more often than not the Either-Or prevails over Both-And.
If everyone is thinking the same, then someone is not thinking (attributed to Patton)

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Re: Brexit - The UK's EU Referendum & Withdrawal

Post by ArmChairCivvy »

Mrs May (concluding) telling MPs that there was now a majority for a deal which included a change to the backstop (good luck with that!), a strengthened role for parliament (a travesty to have been excluded - to begin with), and better protections for workers' rights (we opted out when in and are opting in when leaving??).

The Spectator luckily didn't leave the Visitors' Gallery straight after the vote results, so we got an account of 'divide & conquer' in action:
" There were angry scenes in the House of Commons after the result, with SNP Westminster leader Ian Blackford arguing MPs had torn up the Good Friday Agreement, and DUP leader Nigel Dodds attacking him for making the suggestion."
Ever-lasting truths: Multi-year budgets/ planning by necessity have to address the painful questions; more often than not the Either-Or prevails over Both-And.
If everyone is thinking the same, then someone is not thinking (attributed to Patton)

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Re: Brexit - The UK's EU Referendum & Withdrawal

Post by ArmChairCivvy »

And (again The Spectator) reports that "when Olly Robbins travels to Brussels to negotiate on Theresa May’s behalf, he now meets Martin Selmayr" (the Secretary-General of the European Commission).

What can be read from that?
- the negotiation has gone political (technicalities over)
- the Commission has concluded that "this" won't get sorted before it is the time for "change of guard" ie. a new Commission after the Europarliament elections
Ever-lasting truths: Multi-year budgets/ planning by necessity have to address the painful questions; more often than not the Either-Or prevails over Both-And.
If everyone is thinking the same, then someone is not thinking (attributed to Patton)

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Re: Brexit - The UK's EU Referendum & Withdrawal

Post by ArmChairCivvy »

This is just a trickle (and the courts are only involved as client funds are being transferred)
"no-deal Brexit plans to shift assets worth £166bn (€190bn) to its Irish division as it "cannot wait any longer" amid continuing political uncertainty, a High Court judgment has revealed.

The plans were drawn up by the bank in case of a no-deal scenario which would see UK financial services firms losing "passporting" rights ." reported by Sky News

But trickles can turn into torrents. And this is about Barclays, for heavens sake! Which bank can be more British?
Ever-lasting truths: Multi-year budgets/ planning by necessity have to address the painful questions; more often than not the Either-Or prevails over Both-And.
If everyone is thinking the same, then someone is not thinking (attributed to Patton)

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Re: Brexit - The UK's EU Referendum & Withdrawal

Post by ArmChairCivvy »

Home Office has, again, done a mint job:

" Let me be clear. This policy does not apply to those here before exit day, whose rights to live and work will be protected by the EU Settlement Scheme. We want them to stay and value them hugely.

The information set out today also confirms that if there is no deal:"
... and all that was said in the preceding paragraph flies out of the window??

At least the Reuters editor in Bengaluru had picked it up that way from https://www.gov.uk/government/news/gove ... u-citizens
Ever-lasting truths: Multi-year budgets/ planning by necessity have to address the painful questions; more often than not the Either-Or prevails over Both-And.
If everyone is thinking the same, then someone is not thinking (attributed to Patton)

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Re: Brexit - The UK's EU Referendum & Withdrawal

Post by ArmChairCivvy »

The MoD seems to be marching ahead in a slightly more orderly way, as detailed in https://news.sky.com/story/no-deal-war- ... y-11623004

Perhaps they should call in assistance from other JEF participants ;) "On the military front, the bulk of troops earmarked for Operational Yellowhammer look set to come from 3rd (United Kingdom) Division, with officers saying if that is the case then the most likely impact will be that some of these units may already be on a raised level of readiness as part of a new UK-led initiative called the Joint Expeditionary Force (JEF).

This is a high-readiness force of more than 10,000 military personnel from a total of nine countries - also including the Baltic states, Norway, the Netherlands, Denmark, Finland and Sweden - set up to respond to military crises, environmental disasters or any other sort of emergency situation anywhere in the world." as that last bit would seem to cover the situation arising in the UK
- thought the PM/ SNP exchanges of yesterday were pointing to a hard border between England and Scotland. Never mind the customs, Hadrian's Wall will need a LEP plenty quick
Ever-lasting truths: Multi-year budgets/ planning by necessity have to address the painful questions; more often than not the Either-Or prevails over Both-And.
If everyone is thinking the same, then someone is not thinking (attributed to Patton)

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Re: Brexit - The UK's EU Referendum & Withdrawal

Post by SKB »

Italy has now officially gone into a recession...
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-47068401

...so expect the EU to reopen deal talks with UK soon?! ;)

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Re: Brexit - The UK's EU Referendum & Withdrawal

Post by ArmChairCivvy »

Sky News have picked up on the views of a previous Cabinet Office minister (while the current one has been put onto the Brux negotiating team: a whiff of Norway-enough during the X years of transition to bring Labour onboard? An extension to be asked for 8 days before the Brexit Day as it can't be asked for without the indicator on, as to which way we are going to turn :) next. Mrs May erratically driving while switching between "left&right" has not endeared her to the other side - who until now have seen it as a priority to keep her in office so as to have 'someone' to talk with!

... but onto the remarks made by the former cabinet minister Sir Oliver Letwin on the implications of a no-deal Brexit for the government and picked up by Sky:

["]"It will be the first time that we have consciously taken a risk on behalf of our nation, and terrible things will happen to real people in our nation because of that risk, and we will not be able to argue that it was someone else's fault."

- The culture war that Brexit has unleashed cannot be undone. It will run on and on. But politicians should pause and consider this; the basic role of a government is to look after its citizens and not impose unnecessary difficulties on them.

- Theresa May won't rule out no deal. Removing that card from her hand leaves her without jeopardy in the negotiations. But don't mistake public complacency as a licence to play poker with their everyday lives. Chaotic Brexit will cost the Conservative government dear.["]

That bolding to Beth Rigby's take has been added; and the complacency is all about having been confused by the infowars :( The EU side has seen it all as nebulae, but in reality it is about plenty of fabula ('little porkies' in the eyes of whoever is delivering them, for whatever purpose. But it all adds up).
Ever-lasting truths: Multi-year budgets/ planning by necessity have to address the painful questions; more often than not the Either-Or prevails over Both-And.
If everyone is thinking the same, then someone is not thinking (attributed to Patton)

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Re: Brexit - The UK's EU Referendum & Withdrawal

Post by ArmChairCivvy »

Uncharted waters?

Just one UK broadsheet's take on what that entails:
More Stories
German anger builds over dangerous handling of Brexit by EU ideologues
Could the EU force Britain to pay the £39bn Brexit bill after no deal? And would it cost even more?
ECJ will block lawsuits against Britain for not paying Brexit bill after no deal
As long as Brexiteers hold their nerve, game theory proves that no-deal is now inevitable

But, we will enjoy it while it lasts "The EU-Japan Economic Partnership Agreement (EPA) comes into force today - just eight weeks before the UK is due to leave the European Union on 29 March" when the benefit to UK alone has been estimated at £3 bn over a longer period
The article https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-47082922 claims only ( the v recent FTA with) Israel as a counterweight
- they seem to be forgetting Switzerland, NZ and Chile?
- 10% done, 90% to go just to stay even with where we are now, forgetting the half(+) of the trade that is with the EU (and all 8 weeks for it ;) )
Ever-lasting truths: Multi-year budgets/ planning by necessity have to address the painful questions; more often than not the Either-Or prevails over Both-And.
If everyone is thinking the same, then someone is not thinking (attributed to Patton)

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Re: Brexit - The UK's EU Referendum & Withdrawal

Post by ArmChairCivvy »

Someone in the "pro-business" party seems to have got an advance copy of the IoD survey of biz relocation plans - or simply just is not as disconnected as most in the Westminster bubble - as HuffPost of today quotes
" Sajid Javid has told colleagues he too expects a delay. [and] Intriguingly, Javid is said to have questioned the wisdom of Theresa May’s strategy of repeatedly saying we will be out of the EU next month."
- no plan of such magnitude can be executed in 8 weeks by a business (most of them, anyway)
- so those companies that don't already span Europe with various offices (affording a smoother "glide" and also some "reverse-ability) have now set their plan in motion, or have some negotiated contracts at the other end that are just awaiting for the "trigger to be pulled"
Ever-lasting truths: Multi-year budgets/ planning by necessity have to address the painful questions; more often than not the Either-Or prevails over Both-And.
If everyone is thinking the same, then someone is not thinking (attributed to Patton)

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Re: Brexit - The UK's EU Referendum & Withdrawal

Post by Halidon »

Mr. Dunt pulls no punches.
The British government is actively sabotaging the work it has spent the past two years completing and then doing a victory dance.
There was a weird, and very un-British, quasi-religious undercurrent to all this — a sense that things would work if you just believed in them hard enough, a hatred of practical judgment and a bubbling tide of chest-beating jingoistic nationalism. Brexit was a political project based on the idea that identity politics could answer technocratic questions. If the technocratic question keeps proving problematic, you just need to have more faith in your identity. It was like trying to unlock a door with a slice of bread.
It was a very strange and pointless amendment. It said, in a not legally binding manner, that Parliament would back the Brexit deal if “alternative arrangements” were found for the backstop. What were these alternative arrangements? How do you promise to keep a border open while simultaneously not promising to keep a border open? Brady couldn’t say. Neither could the prime minister or any other member of her government. They had no idea what they were doing. They just needed some words, any words, that could win majority support in the Commons. The fact that the specific words they chose made no sense was an advantage. If the amendment had made sense, someone would have taken offense at its implications. This is the logic of fairy tale politics. The most common idea among Brexiteers is that they will use “high-tech solutions” to remove the need for checks at the border. But the technology they are wishing for does not exist anywhere on Earth. It is science fiction.

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Re: Brexit - The UK's EU Referendum & Withdrawal

Post by Dave »

Halidon wrote:Mr. Dunt pulls no punches.
It was a very strange and pointless amendment. It said, in a not legally binding manner, that Parliament would back the Brexit deal if “alternative arrangements” were found for the backstop. What were these alternative arrangements? How do you promise to keep a border open while simultaneously not promising to keep a border open? Brady couldn’t say.
He couldn’t say because the Tory plan of policing the border using Leprechauns on unicorns is still classified ;) .

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Re: Brexit - The UK's EU Referendum & Withdrawal

Post by dmereifield »

More mini-deals emerging almost on a daily basis, just 2 examples from today:

"The European Union's markets watchdog said it has approved an agreement on supervisory cooperation with Britain after Brexit to avoid disruption to cross-border financial services like asset management"

https://uk.mobile.reuters.com/article/a ... ssion=true

"EU offers Britons visa-free travel for short trips, if UK reciprocates"

https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.cnn.co ... index.html

And, Liam Fox seems to be in a roll, the latest trade agreement is with the Eastern and Southern Africa common market

https://www.gov.uk/government/news/uk-s ... -agreement

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Re: Brexit - The UK's EU Referendum & Withdrawal

Post by ArmChairCivvy »

dmereifield wrote:mini-deals emerging
Research project and university exchange funding to continue IF the UK carries on paying its budget share
dmereifield wrote: visa-free travel for short trips, if UK reciprocates
another IF there, and quite a step down from the level where we are at

That Africa deal is good for the UK (one could take the percentage of our trade going in that direction, but why bother, as the principle is a good one). The other side is covered to a good degree by GSP, which exempts WTO member countries from MFN for the purpose of lowering tariffs for the least developed countries, without also lowering tariffs for rich countries. Out of this group of countries that we have preliminary signed with only perhaps S. Africa (RSA) would not qualify into the so called "beneficiary countries" of that exemption that has been available since 1971.
- so why would they sign for something that is tilted in our favour?
- cash for mining communities -type of side deal (as in: the £ 17 bn aid budget) first comes to mind ;) . OK, we are not talking fresh money (like the mere 1 bn for buying DUP's favour), but rather a diversion of cash - our cash - that would be spent anyway
Ever-lasting truths: Multi-year budgets/ planning by necessity have to address the painful questions; more often than not the Either-Or prevails over Both-And.
If everyone is thinking the same, then someone is not thinking (attributed to Patton)

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Re: Brexit - The UK's EU Referendum & Withdrawal

Post by ArmChairCivvy »

Just a general observation about mini-deals with EU appearing: they may have analysed the situation in the same terms as Washington post - will have to quote Halidon here as WP tried to sell a subscription instead of allowing access to the full article - and the mini-deals on offer so far have been time-limited with damage limitation in mind, having come to believe that 'rationality' seems to have left from the overall process.
Halidon wrote:a weird, and very un-British, quasi-religious undercurrent to all this — a sense that things would work if you just believed in them hard enough, a hatred of practical judgment and a bubbling tide of chest-beating jingoistic nationalism. Brexit was a political project based on the idea that identity politics could answer technocratic questions. If the technocratic question [no one had thought through how to implement, hence the past tense in the previous sentence] keeps proving problematic, you just need to have more faith in your identity. It was like trying to unlock a door with a slice of bread.
The concluding note is a good description for the new trade deals (actually, continuation deals. Any of them have added any new, better terms?) and they equate to the funding for a start-up (AKA rebuild the Empire from scratch), who typically go to ' friends and family' first
- then you have the real VCs coming in that are willing to take risk (hard to find as there are not many)
- next round will be with people offering mezzanine funding: much bigger wads of cash (often letting the VCs cash in their profits), but with strings attached. Those strings actually bringing all the upside from growth (in this case in trade) to them, as the other party (=us) have no alternatives in the negotiation, other than allow trade to shrink

I am truly NOT envious of the job that Dr. Fox has been given.
Ever-lasting truths: Multi-year budgets/ planning by necessity have to address the painful questions; more often than not the Either-Or prevails over Both-And.
If everyone is thinking the same, then someone is not thinking (attributed to Patton)

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