2019 UK General Election

For discussions on politics and current events.

Who will win the 2019 UK General Election?

Conservatives
19
53%
Labour
0
No votes
Liberal Democrats
0
No votes
The Brexit Party
0
No votes
Other
0
No votes
No majority winner, Hung Parliament.
17
47%
 
Total votes: 36

T-Force
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Re: 2019 UK General Election

Post by T-Force »

Pseudo wrote:
T-Force wrote:59 is the number of Scottish seats
There are, I mentioned a much in the post that you're quoting.
... UK court cannot over rule Scottish court
A UK court wouldn't need to overrule a Scottish court because as I said in the post that you're quoting, in the unlikely event that the Scottish Court didn't dismiss the case out of hand they would rule against the Scottish government because granting permission to hold a referendum on Scottish independence is a reserved power.
the fact is part of the vow which won the referendum in 2014 for the no side part of the vow was the transfer of powers to legislate referendas from Holyrood
No, it didn't. AFAIK there's nothing in the Scotland Act 2016 relating to referendums are you sure you're not getting confused with the provisions for allowing alterations to the Scottish electoral system? The question you should probably ask yourself is, if the Scottish parliament had the power to legislate a referendum without the agreement of the UK parliament then why didn't Sturgeon exercise it in March 2017 instead of gaining the approval of the Scottish Parliament to request a Section 30 order?
you obviously haven't a clue how Scottish courts work our judicial system is separate from the UK's it always has been ... SNP wins the election in Scotland again 2nd mandate to hold a independence referendum the constitutional courts will sign the section 30 thus Boris Johnson will have to back down and this is the route Scottish government proposes to go down if Boris Johnson refuses it.

the 2016 act was a heavily watered down version of the Vow that won the referendum for the NO side ... The electoral commission is demanding a change in the question compared to the last time from YES and NO to REMAIN and LEAVE because no is no longer in front and REMAIN and LEAVE confuses the voters from the Brexit vote ... they've been told to sling their hook ... the UK knows Indyref2 is coming and they can't stop it

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SKB
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Re: 2019 UK General Election

Post by SKB »

T-Force wrote:
you obviously haven't a clue how Scottish courts work our judicial system is separate from the UK's it always has been
You obviously deny or acknowledge that Scotland is IN the UK.
Scottish Law is different to English Law. That's all and the SUPREME COURT is the highest court in the UK.

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Caribbean
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Re: 2019 UK General Election

Post by Caribbean »

T-Force wrote:the constitutional courts will sign the section 30
A section 30 order, transferring power for the independence issue temporarily to the Scottish Parliament is not a power within the gift of the Courts (and in Civil matters, the Scottish Courts are subordinate to the United Kingdom Supreme Court (and before that, the Law Lords), just as the English Courts are) it is only something that can be exercised by the UK Government, with the agreement of Parliament (and Scotland is limited to 60 seats, out of 640, within the UK Parliament, by the Act of Union, so will not be able to command a majority based purely on partisan lines).
The pessimist sees difficulty in every opportunity. The optimist sees the opportunity in every difficulty.
Winston Churchill

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ArmChairCivvy
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Re: 2019 UK General Election

Post by ArmChairCivvy »

There are these "finer points" of the constitutional arrangements... and then there are the wider 'points' about Putinista activities
... the helicopter view of which can be found here: viewtopic.php?f=35&t=594&p=99503#p99503
Ever-lasting truths: Multi-year budgets/ planning by necessity have to address the painful questions; more often than not the Either-Or prevails over Both-And.
If everyone is thinking the same, then someone is not thinking (attributed to Patton)

T-Force
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Re: 2019 UK General Election

Post by T-Force »

SKB wrote:
T-Force wrote:
you obviously haven't a clue how Scottish courts work our judicial system is separate from the UK's it always has been
You obviously deny or acknowledge that Scotland is IN the UK.
Scottish Law is different to English Law. That's all and the SUPREME COURT is the highest court in the UK.
we shall see if the supreme courts over rules the Scottish constitutional courts it's basically ending the UK there and then

R686
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Australia

Re: 2019 UK General Election

Post by R686 »

I’m not sure if this topic being discussed is in the right thread, but yes from past it does seem that the UK has the power, but this article seems to suggest that there is a sliver of hope that the Scottish do hold the power, I guess the only way to find out for T-Force is for Nicola to test the idea what she got to lose just more taxpayers coin to the Barristers certainly would be interesting as I thought Boris would win his prorogue case.

https://www.google.com.au/amp/s/www.sco ... 038901/amp

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Pseudo
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Tuvalu

Re: 2019 UK General Election

Post by Pseudo »

T-Force wrote:you obviously haven't a clue how Scottish courts work our judicial system is separate from the UK's it always has been ... SNP wins the election in Scotland again 2nd mandate to hold a independence referendum the constitutional courts will sign the section 30 thus Boris Johnson will have to back down and this is the route Scottish government proposes to go down if Boris Johnson refuses it.
I am very aware of the Scottish court system, but it's irrelevant to the issue because section 30 provides no authority to force the UK government to accede to the request for a referendum by the Scottish government. You obviously have no clue how law actually works.
the 2016 act was a heavily watered down version of the Vow that won the referendum for the NO side ... The electoral commission is demanding a change in the question compared to the last time from YES and NO to REMAIN and LEAVE because no is no longer in front and REMAIN and LEAVE confuses the voters from the Brexit vote ... they've been told to sling their hook ... the UK knows Indyref2 is coming and they can't stop it
The electoral commission can't demand change in the question prior to the question being proposed in the legislation enacting a referendum. It's only then that the electoral commission can assess the question and recommend any changes. You really should try to get out of your Cybernat bubble and in to reality once in a while.
T-Force wrote:we shall see if the supreme courts over rules the Scottish constitutional courts it's basically ending the UK there and then
To you everything is basically ending the UK there and then. It's a pretty tired delusion and one that in this case is based on ignorance of the subject matter on which you're opining.

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ArmChairCivvy
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Re: 2019 UK General Election

Post by ArmChairCivvy »

Pseudo wrote: It's a pretty tired delusion and one that in this case is based on ignorance of the subject matter on which you're opining.
There are alternative explanations
... a pity that our "Mueller report" is stuck... somewhere
Ever-lasting truths: Multi-year budgets/ planning by necessity have to address the painful questions; more often than not the Either-Or prevails over Both-And.
If everyone is thinking the same, then someone is not thinking (attributed to Patton)

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Pseudo
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Re: 2019 UK General Election

Post by Pseudo »

ArmChairCivvy wrote:
Pseudo wrote: It's a pretty tired delusion and one that in this case is based on ignorance of the subject matter on which you're opining.
There are alternative explanations
... a pity that our "Mueller report" is stuck... somewhere
While I'm sure that the Russian government would very much welcome the instability in the UK that Scottish independence would bring and are likely doing as much as they can to encourage it, I tend to think that nationalists on our esteemed fellow poster's level are most likely bubble-boys with a very narrow pro-nationalist "news" and opinion media intake.

seaspear
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Re: 2019 UK General Election

Post by seaspear »

Just coming in on this but any trade deal with the the U.S relies on getting it through the dmocrat controlled senate that will block any deal creating a hard border in Ireland and may just want to play hard with Trump anyway so overtures to the democrats on Brexit may be important of course Im on the other side of the world so you would have a better understanding than me ,thought it was all a mess when I was over there lol

inch
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Re: 2019 UK General Election

Post by inch »

My own view is I think Boris and farage have screwed there election chance's up by there aragance between them and I think Corbyn is going to slip thru and claim the top job , laughing at boris and farage . Whichever way you want it to go that's up to you but that's just my opinion ,time will tell if I'm right I quess

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RichardIC
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Re: 2019 UK General Election

Post by RichardIC »

Boris may regret calling an election in December now that the NHS is quickly sliding into what is likely to be the biggest winter crisis in history.

May knock Brexit off top spot as a campaigning issue. Boris has already shown how ham-fisted he is in a crisis in Yorkshire.

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Pseudo
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Re: 2019 UK General Election

Post by Pseudo »

seaspear wrote:Just coming in on this but any trade deal with the the U.S relies on getting it through the dmocrat controlled senate that will block any deal creating a hard border in Ireland and may just want to play hard with Trump anyway so overtures to the democrats on Brexit may be important of course Im on the other side of the world so you would have a better understanding than me ,thought it was all a mess when I was over there lol
I'd question whether for the UK a trade deal with the US is worthwhile. The UK currently enjoys a relatively significant trade surplus with the US and the goal of the US when negotiating a trade agreement with the UK would be to eradicate or reverse that surplus.

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ArmChairCivvy
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Re: 2019 UK General Election

Post by ArmChairCivvy »

Pseudo wrote:The UK currently enjoys a relatively significant trade surplus with the US and the goal of the US when negotiating a trade agreement with the UK would be to eradicate or reverse that surplus.
You are absolutely right about what would happen next. However the funny thing is that both sides are recording a surplus... there's a joint investigation into 'how come could that be'.
Ever-lasting truths: Multi-year budgets/ planning by necessity have to address the painful questions; more often than not the Either-Or prevails over Both-And.
If everyone is thinking the same, then someone is not thinking (attributed to Patton)

inch
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Re: 2019 UK General Election

Post by inch »

Wow the money all the parties are promising is the going to be any money left for defence after we pay the loan bill ? V scary indeed

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ArmChairCivvy
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Re: 2019 UK General Election

Post by ArmChairCivvy »

inch wrote:Wow the money all the parties are promising is the going to be any money left for defence after we pay the loan bill ? V scary indeed
Funnily enough, it is the Brexit high priest prof. Mintford who provides the answer (when he is trying to elaborate, which type of model would be best for measuring Brexit impact):
" Another key one, that GTAP does not have, is that trade itself raises productivity via mechanisms such as foreign direct investment that it encourages.

Hence the GTAP model itself is controversial; its very structure increases the influence of UK-EU trade relative to UK-non-EU trade."
- there is no need to consider what GTAP model is (relative to others in use)
- simply take the assessment that leaving the customs union and single market implies, according to the NIESR, that UK-EU goods trade would be “lower by 40%, and UK-EU service trade [IN WHICH FIELD WE HOLD A RELATIVE ADVANTAGE]… lower by 60%”. This alone would be devastating as the UK economy is not the Singapore on Thames (even though the City in isolation might bear a high resemblance).

But back from NIESR to Mintford who , quite correctly, states that direct investment induced by trade raises productivity... BUT does not consider the reverse: that by destroying our "bridge head to Europe" positioning...trade flow into that market down by 40% [than otherwise, the normal modeling assumption], we will also give away those associated productivity gains.
- A trend already observed "in slow motion" as the Brexit horror story has been unfolding.

Back to the starting quote and the election campaign in which both major parties, as the Guardian puts it, are promising largesse on an unprecedented scale
- the NIESR estimates that, as a result of Johnson’s great “deal”, “government revenue would be lower by around 2.5% in the long run, or £26bn a year at 2016 prices”. They go on: “The shortfall relative to a closer economic relationship with the EU would have to be met by raising tax rates, increased public borrowing or reduced public spending, or a combination of all these options.”
- translation: nothing left for defence :shock: :oops:
Ever-lasting truths: Multi-year budgets/ planning by necessity have to address the painful questions; more often than not the Either-Or prevails over Both-And.
If everyone is thinking the same, then someone is not thinking (attributed to Patton)

inch
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Re: 2019 UK General Election

Post by inch »

But after all that I was just thinking about how much the different parties has promised to spend brexit or no Brexit ,they still going to put the country in hoc even if in or out , nothing to do with which side of Brexit you stand on

sea_eagle
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Re: 2019 UK General Election

Post by sea_eagle »

inch wrote:Wow the money all the parties are promising is the going to be any money left for defence after we pay the loan bill ? V scary indeed
Agreed, don't know where this undiscovered money forest is located. Since the Govt is still borrowing money each year then additional spending can only come from (much) higher taxes or more borrowing.
I have not heard any party even mention defence, it just is not important to the general public. :cry:

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Pseudo
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Re: 2019 UK General Election

Post by Pseudo »

inch wrote:But after all that I was just thinking about how much the different parties has promised to spend brexit or no Brexit ,they still going to put the country in hoc even if in or out , nothing to do with which side of Brexit you stand on
As I understand it ten year gilt rates are below the rate of inflation, so as long as that situation continues any public borrowing at those rates will decrease in real-term value over the next decade.

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Caribbean
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Re: 2019 UK General Election

Post by Caribbean »

Pseudo wrote:As I understand it ten year gilt rates are below the rate of inflation, so as long as that situation continues any public borrowing at those rates will decrease in real-term value over the next decade.
That is true. What remains to be seen is whether rates will stay that low if the UK Govt embarks on a massive borrowing program. A point will come when those left with money to lend to the government will only do so in return for real returns, rather than just to mitigate the effects of inflation as best they can.
The pessimist sees difficulty in every opportunity. The optimist sees the opportunity in every difficulty.
Winston Churchill

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Pseudo
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Re: 2019 UK General Election

Post by Pseudo »

Caribbean wrote:
Pseudo wrote:As I understand it ten year gilt rates are below the rate of inflation, so as long as that situation continues any public borrowing at those rates will decrease in real-term value over the next decade.
That is true. What remains to be seen is whether rates will stay that low if the UK Govt embarks on a massive borrowing program. A point will come when those left with money to lend to the government will only do so in return for real returns, rather than just to mitigate the effects of inflation as best they can.
That's a possibility, but then the last nine years of Conservative-led government has increased the national debt by more than the entire thirty-three years of Labour government combined. It also tends to be the case that in the UK certain nationalised areas have been less costly in relative terms to taxpayers than the subsidies provided to their private sector successors. Let's not forget that the reason publicly-owned British Rail went to shit is because the profits from it were used to fund things like defence spending and tax cuts rather than improvements in its infrastructure and rolling stock.

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ArmChairCivvy
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Re: 2019 UK General Election

Post by ArmChairCivvy »

Caribbean wrote: A point will come when those left with money to lend to the government will only do so in return for real returns
Not before bank regulation is changed as "it" dictates that one needs to hold riskless assets in certain relation to risky ones (like mortgage takers and businesses) in order to be able to lend to the latter, at all (more than your capital, that is)
... and even a Corbyn gvmnt is "riskless" :D
Ever-lasting truths: Multi-year budgets/ planning by necessity have to address the painful questions; more often than not the Either-Or prevails over Both-And.
If everyone is thinking the same, then someone is not thinking (attributed to Patton)

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Zero Gravitas
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Re: 2019 UK General Election

Post by Zero Gravitas »

:think:

It's gonna be an embarrassingly large Tory majority.

100+

Maybe 150+

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SKB
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Re: 2019 UK General Election

Post by SKB »

There's going to be a lot more Tory Blue on that election night map....

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ArmChairCivvy
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Re: 2019 UK General Election

Post by ArmChairCivvy »

A snippet from Gordon Brown's speech tonight - no, I wasn't there :)
"The debasement of our public discourse has been aggravated by the systematic and sustained spraying of untruths, often by foreign state actors – and not in the expectation that their lies will be believed. Success for them is everyone starting to doubt that anything is true: and 44% of remain voters and 51% of leave voters now consider politicians and the media to be habitual liars. We do yet know the full scale of the foreign penetration into our social media and politics, not least because the parliamentary intelligence committee report on Russian interference in the 2016 referendum has deliberately been withheld. But clearly, more than ever before, our politics is being infected and enmities inflamed by dark money and dirty tricks.

Central to the new politics of division and hate across the UK is the displacement of an outward looking patriotism by narrow, adversarial nationalisms which need – and invent – enemies, and make it almost impossible to unite the country around any common purpose or shared direction."
Ever-lasting truths: Multi-year budgets/ planning by necessity have to address the painful questions; more often than not the Either-Or prevails over Both-And.
If everyone is thinking the same, then someone is not thinking (attributed to Patton)

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