'Liberated' Libya

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ArmChairCivvy
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'Liberated' Libya

Post by ArmChairCivvy »

The GNA has not responded publicly to the reports of the takeover of Sirte, which is roughly midway between Libyan rival armed forces and authorities based in the east and west of the country.
- LNA (Haftar), the one in the East (and latterly South) claims to have taken it
Ever-lasting truths: Multi-year budgets/ planning by necessity have to address the painful questions; more often than not the Either-Or prevails over Both-And.
If everyone is thinking the same, then someone is not thinking (attributed to Patton)

sea_eagle
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Re: 'Liberated' Libya

Post by sea_eagle »

ArmChairCivvy wrote:The GNA has not responded publicly to the reports of the takeover of Sirte, which is roughly midway between Libyan rival armed forces and authorities based in the east and west of the country.
- LNA (Haftar), the one in the East (and latterly South) claims to have taken it
The LNA is supported by Egypt & others while the GNA is recognised by the UN and that includes UK & US.
Turkey has announced plans to send troops to Libya in support of the GNA.
What is Turkey's motive for doing this at this time, the civil war has already been running for 5 years.

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ArmChairCivvy
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Re: 'Liberated' Libya

Post by ArmChairCivvy »

GNA is about to collapse and the opposing side is driven by Egypt (who have no oil).
- what was not mentioned is that LNA is also supported by Russian SF

How come Turkey will go and oppose their newest and best pals; the Ruskies?
- well: Turkey wants to be 'the' leading "modern" Sunni nation. Both Egypt and Turkey have a lot of people and strong armed forces. The Saudis have a lot of money - and may want to be modern (an aspiration)
- there is the love/hate triangle, who may or may not engage the Shia side across the divide in the ME/ Maghreb
- oil is so old fashioned; now it is all about the gas from the Dead Sea to a lot of the Eastern part of the Med
Ever-lasting truths: Multi-year budgets/ planning by necessity have to address the painful questions; more often than not the Either-Or prevails over Both-And.
If everyone is thinking the same, then someone is not thinking (attributed to Patton)

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ArmChairCivvy
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Re: 'Liberated' Libya

Post by ArmChairCivvy »

From Reuters
" Italy’s Foreign Minister Luigi Di Maio said on Tuesday following a meeting with his British, French and German counterparts.

“Libya at the moment poses a risk to Europe on migration and also on terrorism,” he told reporters as he left the meeting.

“This meeting was supposed to take place in Libya but the security situation there did not allow that, but the EU will upgrade its strategies on Libya from tomorrow,” Di Maio said

Ahem, from tomorrow; how many years have passed with 'benign neglect'?
Ever-lasting truths: Multi-year budgets/ planning by necessity have to address the painful questions; more often than not the Either-Or prevails over Both-And.
If everyone is thinking the same, then someone is not thinking (attributed to Patton)

abc123
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Re: 'Liberated' Libya

Post by abc123 »

This Turkish plans of intervention in Libya are deeply unsettling. Regrettably, EU countries have no balls ( as usual ) to counter them and stop the spread of radical islam. And stupid Russia thinks that they can make Erdogan an ally. :thumbdown:
Fortune favors brave sir, said Carrot cheerfully.
What's her position about heavily armed, well prepared and overmanned armies?
Oh, noone's ever heard of Fortune favoring them, sir.
According to General Tacticus, it's because they favor themselves…

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ArmChairCivvy
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Re: 'Liberated' Libya

Post by ArmChairCivvy »

I wonder if anything came out of the strive for a cease fire (Sunday was the deadline)?
Ever-lasting truths: Multi-year budgets/ planning by necessity have to address the painful questions; more often than not the Either-Or prevails over Both-And.
If everyone is thinking the same, then someone is not thinking (attributed to Patton)

Meriv9
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Re: 'Liberated' Libya

Post by Meriv9 »

No, Haftar didnt agree with ceasefire even in front if Putin.

The problem as people is writing on our Italian forum is that Libya is a tribal system, for the tribes / militias the civil war is an "investment" (8 years long one). Thus Haftar cannot go back to his supporters without a "ROI" , lets consider how hard is to confront the Sunken cost fallacy in the stock market and apply it to "human" cost in a system stuck at the tribal level.

But it is our fault (Italian state) our immobilism allowed the french to do the damage first, and to allow the situation to deteriorate to this point. Even though as soon as the french started the conflict we have been facing only loose/loose situations, to which not "choosing" is way too seducing.

We can still salvage the situation from Russian and Turkey hands if the EU gets together and choose to appoint Minniti https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Marco_Minniti
To solve the situation. He is the guy that curved the migrant flow by 90%, a strongman from the old left not the new one. From his wikipedia.
Due to his policies on immigration and security, Minniti has been often criticized by left-wing intellectuals and writers, like Roberto Saviano,[3] and labeled as a strongman.[4][5][6] He has been sometimes nicknamed "The Lord of the Spies",[7] due to his long-time experience in coordinating the secret services.
IMHO giving him a white check is the only option to save the EU side. Consider Libya is worth 50bln in reconstruction and just for Italy a trade flow of 5bln if im not wrong.

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ArmChairCivvy
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Re: 'Liberated' Libya

Post by ArmChairCivvy »

ArmChairCivvy wrote:GNA is about to collapse and the opposing side is driven by Egypt (who have no oil).
- what was not mentioned is that LNA is also supported by Russian SF

How come Turkey will go and oppose their newest and best pals; the Ruskies?
Well, there are only 35 Turks, but they have brought 2000 Syrian proxies with them (for the front line), as "Haftar didnt agree with ceasefire even in front if [of] Putin". The complex build-up (on both sides) and its timeline explained here https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/ ... ort-regime

This latest is in remarkable contrast to what was reported already in December (and may explain how the stalemate from April until then was broken): A UN panel of experts said in a 376-page report to the security council that" the presence of the Sudanese has become more marked in 2019" and by know the Guardian intelligence makes that 3000 (+600 Ruskies, who are claimed to be there under the Wagner umbrella... as in Syria and Venezuela).
- difficult to say who are the 'good guys' in this; but Haftar has the oil, so that will count for a lot
Ever-lasting truths: Multi-year budgets/ planning by necessity have to address the painful questions; more often than not the Either-Or prevails over Both-And.
If everyone is thinking the same, then someone is not thinking (attributed to Patton)

abc123
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Re: 'Liberated' Libya

Post by abc123 »

ArmChairCivvy wrote:
ArmChairCivvy wrote:GNA is about to collapse and the opposing side is driven by Egypt (who have no oil).
- what was not mentioned is that LNA is also supported by Russian SF

How come Turkey will go and oppose their newest and best pals; the Ruskies?

- difficult to say who are the 'good guys' in this; but Haftar has the oil, so that will count for a lot
Agreed.
I would say that would be the one that will stabilise that poor country finally, this way or another, and at the moment that seems to be Haftar.
Fortune favors brave sir, said Carrot cheerfully.
What's her position about heavily armed, well prepared and overmanned armies?
Oh, noone's ever heard of Fortune favoring them, sir.
According to General Tacticus, it's because they favor themselves…

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ArmChairCivvy
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Re: 'Liberated' Libya

Post by ArmChairCivvy »

Johnson from Johnson&Johnson could not care less, but our Johnson will be in Berlin on Sunday, a week and a day later than the Merkel/ Putin talks (that took place in Moscow) for talks about... the crisis in Libya.

German Chancellor Angela Merkel is hosting the gathering of world leaders.
- no doubt there will be a sideline about the arbitration with the Iran nuclear deal; the clock is ticking down from the 30 days

[According to MSN] The Prime Minister's official spokesman said: "The conflict in Libya has escalated in recent months and threatens to destabilise the wider region."
- good to wake up sooner, rather than when it is too late (another Syria in the making; with all the so-far not involved parties jumping in?)
Ever-lasting truths: Multi-year budgets/ planning by necessity have to address the painful questions; more often than not the Either-Or prevails over Both-And.
If everyone is thinking the same, then someone is not thinking (attributed to Patton)

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ArmChairCivvy
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Re: 'Liberated' Libya

Post by ArmChairCivvy »

The EU has a mighty chance to advance its reputation (in defence and security matters) as a talking shop, in its Berlin gettogether - as president Trump is not the only one who shoots first and (perhaps) talks then.

This is exactly what Turkey and Russia have done in Libya. But how did they end up on opposing sides? According to the Carnegie Institute the Turkish leadership had "no option but to choose the side of al-Sarraj, due to its long-held ties with the Muslim Brotherhood organization".
- sounds a bit shallow, though

Russia backs the secularist Haftar, who studied in the Soviet Union and speaks Russian.
- again, hardly the biggest driver (Haftar being an-CIA man from the "jeep wars" conducted to the South of Libya. There's hardly any bush, so the normal name does not apply)
- secularist being the key word. Working with Egypt (that, err, is the original home of the Muslim Brotherhood) and if both of them grab the oil, together, then preventing a new base for exporting Islamic fundamentalism from arising - of the Sunni kind which appeals more to the folks living in southern parts of Russia - can be a "self-financing project" ;)

Let's see what the EU after years of neglect of the whole issue (the bundle, as Libya is not a 'single' issue) can come up with. Those not invited have been busy with trying to produce a fait accompli... a bit like the Astana process was set up to compete with the (ineffectual) Geneva process
Ever-lasting truths: Multi-year budgets/ planning by necessity have to address the painful questions; more often than not the Either-Or prevails over Both-And.
If everyone is thinking the same, then someone is not thinking (attributed to Patton)

abc123
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Re: 'Liberated' Libya

Post by abc123 »

The EU will do exactly nothing except empty talk. As usual. OTOH, considering their stellar record from 2011 till today- it's maybe the best.
Fortune favors brave sir, said Carrot cheerfully.
What's her position about heavily armed, well prepared and overmanned armies?
Oh, noone's ever heard of Fortune favoring them, sir.
According to General Tacticus, it's because they favor themselves…

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ArmChairCivvy
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Re: 'Liberated' Libya

Post by ArmChairCivvy »

Sounds much like partitioning the country... could easily turn permanent. But on Sunday we will hear more:
" UN's Special Representative to Libya Ghassan Salame described the Berlin summit as an attempt "to salvage" what happened in Moscow.
In Berlin, the UN will add more details to the draft agreement and bring a larger group of countries on board to "support and consolidate the truce", through the appointment of a neutral monitoring mechanism, he told CNN."

On TD, at the time when the air in Libya was even thicker with bullets and HE, I proposed that "Green Helmets" should immediately be deployed, after the fighting, as a 'neutral monitoring mechanism' to keep the militias in their own areas
- at the time Turkey was among the possible contributors
- by now the only Muslim countries connected with the ME & Maghreb, with large enough militaries and NOT involved are at the extreme ends of that region: Morocco and Pakistan. Can't remember a UN mission so narrowly based (though the logistical difficulties with deploying to Namibia saw only a couple of countries fielding peacekeepers at the early stages of the resolution and pullback of involved combatants).
Ever-lasting truths: Multi-year budgets/ planning by necessity have to address the painful questions; more often than not the Either-Or prevails over Both-And.
If everyone is thinking the same, then someone is not thinking (attributed to Patton)

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Re: 'Liberated' Libya

Post by ArmChairCivvy »

Will be interesting to see how the Berlin outcomes will be assessed (as mainstream media has finally woken up to the wider topic).

Snubbing Tunisia (has taken most of the new refugees) and Morocco (about the only N. African country not involved and hence could send credible observers/ peacekeepers) was not a great start. I.e. they wanted to partake, but were not 'invited'.
Ever-lasting truths: Multi-year budgets/ planning by necessity have to address the painful questions; more often than not the Either-Or prevails over Both-And.
If everyone is thinking the same, then someone is not thinking (attributed to Patton)

abc123
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Re: 'Liberated' Libya

Post by abc123 »

Turkey should not be allowed to set foot there. They can only increase problems there.
Fortune favors brave sir, said Carrot cheerfully.
What's her position about heavily armed, well prepared and overmanned armies?
Oh, noone's ever heard of Fortune favoring them, sir.
According to General Tacticus, it's because they favor themselves…

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ArmChairCivvy
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Re: 'Liberated' Libya

Post by ArmChairCivvy »

Considering what Rwanda and FYRs gave rise to, though it took a fair bit of time (until 2005, to be formally adopted), this might be the first Responsibility to Protect action - though the previous Libya action was taken under such a UN Resolution.
- then again the League of Nations had an arms embargo in place for Spain... and the Civil War raged on, regardless

Of course, as with the League of Nations, non-action was (is?) the norm
Ever-lasting truths: Multi-year budgets/ planning by necessity have to address the painful questions; more often than not the Either-Or prevails over Both-And.
If everyone is thinking the same, then someone is not thinking (attributed to Patton)

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Re: 'Liberated' Libya

Post by ArmChairCivvy »

CNN has been digging deeper into what was exposed by the UN report on Libya arms embargo, and this particular web of deception stretching from Tehran to Edinburgh, a shuttle that did 30 trips before being destroyed on the ground in Libya:

"Less than a week before the plane was struck in Libya, Ukraine barred its carriers from flying to the country "due to the 'worsening security situation'," the UN experts noted. SkyAviaTrans and Volaris had obtained an exemption to the ban, claiming they were working for the Libyan Red Crescent, according to the UN panel. In its December 9 report, the panel said it was "not yet convinced of the veracity of the documentation supplied by SkyAviatrans to the Ukrainian authorities to obtain the exemption and continues to investigate."
A spokesperson for the Libyan Red Crescent told CNN that it had no connections with SkyAviaTrans or Volaris, nor with Malakhova. "We have no relationship with the subject of this report... the Libyan Red Crescent has nothing to do with this at all."["]
https://edition.cnn.com/2020/01/24/euro ... index.html
Ever-lasting truths: Multi-year budgets/ planning by necessity have to address the painful questions; more often than not the Either-Or prevails over Both-And.
If everyone is thinking the same, then someone is not thinking (attributed to Patton)

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Re: 'Liberated' Libya

Post by ArmChairCivvy »

Another little nugget on how well ;) the embargo is working:
https://www.janes.com/article/94148/lib ... d-vehicles
Ever-lasting truths: Multi-year budgets/ planning by necessity have to address the painful questions; more often than not the Either-Or prevails over Both-And.
If everyone is thinking the same, then someone is not thinking (attributed to Patton)

abc123
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Re: 'Liberated' Libya

Post by abc123 »

ArmChairCivvy wrote:Another little nugget on how well ;) the embargo is working:
https://www.janes.com/article/94148/lib ... d-vehicles
Considering that nobody has no reason to obey that embargo...
Fortune favors brave sir, said Carrot cheerfully.
What's her position about heavily armed, well prepared and overmanned armies?
Oh, noone's ever heard of Fortune favoring them, sir.
According to General Tacticus, it's because they favor themselves…

abc123
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Re: 'Liberated' Libya

Post by abc123 »

EU or better to say Italy will enforce UN arms embargo against Libya- Operation Irini:

https://www.navalnews.com/naval-news/20 ... 39W6ORzSIE
Fortune favors brave sir, said Carrot cheerfully.
What's her position about heavily armed, well prepared and overmanned armies?
Oh, noone's ever heard of Fortune favoring them, sir.
According to General Tacticus, it's because they favor themselves…

Phil Sayers
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Re: 'Liberated' Libya

Post by Phil Sayers »

The war seems to be swinging in favour of GNA forces following Turkey's intervention. Last week they captured several towns / cities to the west of Tripoli which reopened the coastal road to Tunisia and placed a key airbase under siege. If that airbase is captured or surrenders Turkey may well move to base F16s and Apaches there based on 'exercises' they have been recently conducting involving extensive AAR. Today GNA forces have started another offensive to push LNA forces back from the Southern approaches to Tripoli and are advancing.

Lord Jim
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Re: 'Liberated' Libya

Post by Lord Jim »

Will this result in Egypt etc. increasing their support for the LNA in the East of the country?

Phil Sayers
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Re: 'Liberated' Libya

Post by Phil Sayers »

Everyone interviewed in this article expects that:

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles ... ibya-s-war

MammaLiTurchi
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Re: 'Liberated' Libya

Post by MammaLiTurchi »

Al Watiya airbase, which is one of the biggest bases in Libya, is secured by GNA forces.

Around Tripoli, zones are swinging back and forth in the hands of opposing sides, but Haftars militia and mercenaries are dangerously protruding from their main supply route, which has less alternatives than it had a month ago.

SW1
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Re: 'Liberated' Libya

Post by SW1 »

The extent of Russian involvement in Libya


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