'Liberated' Libya

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ArmChairCivvy
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Re: 'Liberated' Libya

Post by ArmChairCivvy »

We were talking about extensions to territorial waters...

I've enjoyed my time in Izmir (Smyrna, previously) but as for "Now tables turned after 100 years.." you sure smoked the Greeks out of the mainland, as per Wiki:
" the fire began on 13 September 1922[3] and lasted until it was largely extinguished on 22 September. It began four days after the Turkish military captured the city on 9 September.... Estimated Greek and Armenian deaths resulting from the fire range from 10,000[4][5][6] to 100,000.[7]"

- but let's go back to Libya, and what each involved party - while making a mockery out of the UN embargo - is trying to achieve.
Ever-lasting truths: Multi-year budgets/ planning by necessity have to address the painful questions; more often than not the Either-Or prevails over Both-And.
If everyone is thinking the same, then someone is not thinking (attributed to Patton)

MammaLiTurchi
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Re: 'Liberated' Libya

Post by MammaLiTurchi »

ArmChairCivvy wrote:We were talking about extensions to territorial waters...

I've enjoyed my time in Izmir (Smyrna, previously) but as for "Now tables turned after 100 years.." you sure smoked the Greeks out of the mainland, as per Wiki:
" the fire began on 13 September 1922[3] and lasted until it was largely extinguished on 22 September. It began four days after the Turkish military captured the city on 9 September.... Estimated Greek and Armenian deaths resulting from the fire range from 10,000[4][5][6] to 100,000.[7]"
The collapse of a multinational empire always happens with humanity tragedies. Greeks, Armenians and others contributed to Turkish culture many things. As Turks contribute to them also.

Ottomans fell pretty hard. Millions of Balkan Muslims deported back to Anatolia after Balkan Wars and previous rebellions. Some got killed. Greeks, Bulgarians and Serbs saw this collapse as revenge against Turks for their conquests in 14th-16th century era. Only Bosnians and some Kosovars with little Turks left in Balkans from this purge.

Turkish Republicans were mainly from these deported migrant families, and after victory, history repeated itself, again, unfortunately.

If Turks lost the war in 1922, there would be a little Turkish community left in İzmir, like Balkans.

I do not want to start a whataboutism but turbulent times those times were. Same applied for Europe. Entire Prussia is gone, deleted after 1945. Russians erased historical Polish lands from Polish map. These are deep fault lines.
ArmChairCivvy wrote:We were talking about extensions to territorial waters...

- but let's go back to Libya, and what each involved party - while making a mockery out of the UN embargo - is trying to achieve.
GNA side has clear intentions. But LNA side with Haftar has backing from multiple countries. Russia profits from weapons sales, UAE wants Turkish influence thwarted away and Egypt recognizes a Turkish aligned Libya as threat to their dictatorship under Sisi ( "elected" with %97)

France wants, I dont know. They are active but always meddle in stir shit and got out in Middle East.

Greece wants, pretty much what I have pointed out in previous posts.

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ArmChairCivvy
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Re: 'Liberated' Libya

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As for Egypt in the above, the biggest 'find' further East in the Med (the Zohr field) happens to be in the Egyptian zone, whereto Turkey has been rushing (with naval escorts). Evidenced in Feb, this year, when
"Egypt’s Foreign Ministry spokesman Ahmed Abu Zeid warned [on Wednesday] against any attempt to contest the 2013 accord and said it had been deposited with the United Nations.

“Abu Zeid warned against any attempt to infringe or diminish Egypt’s rights in that area,” the statement said, adding that any such attempt “was rejected and would be confronted”.
- the 2018 accord added Greece (2013 had been between Egypt and Cyprus...in-between, I suspect there has been a side protocol with Israel, too)
Ever-lasting truths: Multi-year budgets/ planning by necessity have to address the painful questions; more often than not the Either-Or prevails over Both-And.
If everyone is thinking the same, then someone is not thinking (attributed to Patton)

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Re: 'Liberated' Libya

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Well, it is now on a knife's edge whether it will be a truce, or more parties diving into the melee:

From Bloomberg, via MSN
"It wasn’t immediately clear if the Tripoli-based Government of National Accord would agree to the cease-fire, which Sisi said would begin Monday. Its forces reached the outskirts of the central coastal city of Sirte on Saturday, and have said they plan on retaking Haftar’s Juffra base in central Libya. But the GNA has also said it’s committed to United Nations-sponsored cease-fire talks."

heh-heh, as there are no such talks; therefore
"Talks between the sides are unlikely until the GNA’s front lines have stabilized, and “that is only likely to happen if there is a strong deterrent against further advances, in the form of airstrikes by Russia, Egypt or the UAE,” according to Wolfram Lacher, a Libya expert at the German SWP think tank."
- just been added to the same source
Ever-lasting truths: Multi-year budgets/ planning by necessity have to address the painful questions; more often than not the Either-Or prevails over Both-And.
If everyone is thinking the same, then someone is not thinking (attributed to Patton)

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Re: 'Liberated' Libya

Post by ArmChairCivvy »

According to the MENA news agency, the Wagner retreat was mainly carried out to the far South of Libya (out of harm's way) by specially arranged transport planes (= a state actor behind such major move)
... which also points to other types of action being in the offing, should the Sisi proposal, announced Saturday at a ceremony in Cairo attended by Haftar, Egyptian President Abdel Fattah El-Sisi and Libyan parliament speaker Aguileh Saleh, not take root.
Ever-lasting truths: Multi-year budgets/ planning by necessity have to address the painful questions; more often than not the Either-Or prevails over Both-And.
If everyone is thinking the same, then someone is not thinking (attributed to Patton)

MammaLiTurchi
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Re: 'Liberated' Libya

Post by MammaLiTurchi »

What I wonder is the stance of NATO. US does not want Russia to dominate EastMed but also does not want to leave the area for Turkey. An USAF C17A flight with Ramstein-Tripoli-Ankara route is interesting.

Turkey is a NATO member after all. And US is far far far away while Russia is next door. If Russia goes hot, US and Turkey will get closer again.

As for S400, I think it was just a message from Turkey to Western countries to be treated as equals. Turkey is a credible country among Islamic populations, so from now on what Turkey wants is like 1853 Crimean War style alliance. Not like 1950s "good boy" Turkey.

And there is a general perception in the world that this is because Erdogan. I will tell you, Erdogan is not that potent to develop such complicated policies. This policies are taking their roots since 1970s and state bureaucracy had been implementing those plans through different governments. So, "secular Kemalists" and "conservative nationalists" are pretty much in the same scheme.

To give an example, latest Libyan-Turkish deal was a product of a Kemalist Admiral, all the diplomatic and technical preparations were made by same Kemalist Republican officers. Political implementation was done by Conservative Nationalists.

Erdogan may be "single man in charge" and just because of that he screws up in various fields but when it comes to strategic issues he is not and can not be single.

In my opinion, US will realize this fact and if mediation with Israel happens (in fact Turkish Israeli trade had never been damaged) focus can turn into China again as this beast occupies everywhere in Asia with unstoppable speed.

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Re: 'Liberated' Libya

Post by ArmChairCivvy »

An USAF C17A flight with Ramstein-Tripoli-Ankara route is interesting.

Indeed, as was Larov in Moscow saying, after meeting with the GNA n:o 2 on Wednesday that we want our imprisoned men home from Tripoli (so what are they giving in return?)
- clearly the US and Russia have decided that this show has the potential to get out of hand, and are working in the background to de-escalate
- an indication is that AFRICOM has not released any images of the Antonovs, flying to the S of Libya, unlike what happened when the 'quarterbacks' were flown into Libya, via Syria
Ever-lasting truths: Multi-year budgets/ planning by necessity have to address the painful questions; more often than not the Either-Or prevails over Both-And.
If everyone is thinking the same, then someone is not thinking (attributed to Patton)

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Re: 'Liberated' Libya

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MammaLiTurchi wrote:An USAF C17A flight with Ramstein-Tripoli-Ankara route is interesting.
I'm going from memory here, but wasn't that the route being flown regularly by a Scottish registered "airfreight company", whose aircraft was destroyed on the ground in Libya, and whose CEO was killed when the Iranians "accidentally" shot down that civilian flight in Iran, not so long ago? I seem to remember that they were suspected of some form of sanctions busting on behalf of the Emiratees
The pessimist sees difficulty in every opportunity. The optimist sees the opportunity in every difficulty.
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Re: 'Liberated' Libya

Post by ArmChairCivvy »

Yes, the CEO was a woman from Ukraine, but surely Ramstein (USAF, and even more so the HQ for AFRICOM) was not part of their routing.

As for "Larov in Moscow saying, after meeting with the GNA n:o 2 on Wednesday" that number two was carrying the title of PM but Libyan (constitutional?) court has now ruled his nomination unlawful and the previous encumbant continues in the post
- and contrary to what has been said on this thread, the initial pushing trough of his nomination was done with the strength of the Muslim Brotherhood MPs

Making the Unity Gvmnt more broadly based is the key to solving this mess
- no guesses offered for how long that might take

When this was going on (in 2016) in support of GNA, the CIA estimated that there were between 5 and 8 thousand ISIS fighters in Libya (so the strikes were not against LNA)... where have they all gone? To the South (the border there has always been purely theoretical)?
"As of Monday, there have been 324 airstrikes in Libya, a majority from drones and others from U.S. Marine Corps jets and attack helicopters stationed aboard a US Navy warship off the Libyan coast.

There were 161 US airstrikes against ISIS in Libya on September 21, according to the U.S. Africa Command. There were more airstrikes in Libya on Oct. 14 than there were in Iraq and Syria combined, according to U.S. military strike reports.

The U.S. military has been carrying out airstrikes in Libya since August 1, in support of the UN-backed Government of National Accord, or GNA based in Tripoli."
- the extreme South of Libya had US drone strikes still in 2018
Ever-lasting truths: Multi-year budgets/ planning by necessity have to address the painful questions; more often than not the Either-Or prevails over Both-And.
If everyone is thinking the same, then someone is not thinking (attributed to Patton)

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Re: 'Liberated' Libya

Post by Caribbean »

ArmChairCivvy wrote:Yes, the CEO was a woman from Ukraine, but surely Ramstein (USAF, and even more so the HQ for AFRICOM) was not part of their routing.
Might not have been Ramstein, but a US Air Base was part of the round trip. Unfortunately I can't track down the article at the moment
The pessimist sees difficulty in every opportunity. The optimist sees the opportunity in every difficulty.
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Re: 'Liberated' Libya

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What was she doing in Iran (before the missile hit on the plane she was on)? A new Contra affair
... this has the makings of a film :D
Ever-lasting truths: Multi-year budgets/ planning by necessity have to address the painful questions; more often than not the Either-Or prevails over Both-And.
If everyone is thinking the same, then someone is not thinking (attributed to Patton)

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Re: 'Liberated' Libya

Post by ArmChairCivvy »

Looks like peace is not coming anytime soon, as AlJazeera says that 'Forces' loyal to Libya's UN-recognised government said they launched an offensive on Saturday to seize the strategic city of Sirte.

Namely, Sirte forms the tripwire as beyond it "lies the prize of Libya's main oil export ports, Haftar's most important strategic asset".
- so if there is a strike to stop the advance, this would be the likely place
- as soon after (in the absence of any such intervention) the Haftar regime might not be self-sustaining anymore.

The United States said it is "watching with interest" the political voices in east Libya.
- did they perhaps give a lift (and safe passage) for someone from the other side, to meet with "any such voices"?
Ever-lasting truths: Multi-year budgets/ planning by necessity have to address the painful questions; more often than not the Either-Or prevails over Both-And.
If everyone is thinking the same, then someone is not thinking (attributed to Patton)

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Re: 'Liberated' Libya

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ArmChairCivvy wrote:Turkey wants maritime borders and deals with Libya
... yes, but they can't have a border deal, as any such would be cutting across what was agreed in 2018 by nations having their EEZs in-between (see a couple of posts up, on this thread)
Incidentally the agreement came at the same time as this announcement "Greece, Italy, and Cyprus have reached an agreement with Israel to lay a pipeline connecting the Jewish state’s gas reserves to the three countries, in a major project estimated at costing over $7 billion that will supply gas from the eastern Mediterranean to Europe"
- with Turkey's latest 'moves' some of the waters for the pipeline to cross became 'contested' - in their minds
- a bit like Nordstream2 got delayed... because Russia and Germany forgot to ask for permission from Denmark, about the waters around Bornholm (= an island, well East of Denmark)
Ever-lasting truths: Multi-year budgets/ planning by necessity have to address the painful questions; more often than not the Either-Or prevails over Both-And.
If everyone is thinking the same, then someone is not thinking (attributed to Patton)

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Re: 'Liberated' Libya

Post by ArmChairCivvy »

Funny thing: Haftar has been ordering his own dinaars from Moskwu
... but they have been interdicted on the way, in La Valletta. Containers stacked full.

Hitler also had perfect plates for £s
... but could not spare the bombers to get them "to the other side"of the line, to create havoc
Ever-lasting truths: Multi-year budgets/ planning by necessity have to address the painful questions; more often than not the Either-Or prevails over Both-And.
If everyone is thinking the same, then someone is not thinking (attributed to Patton)

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Re: 'Liberated' Libya

Post by ArmChairCivvy »

Oh well, the NYT writes about
"war as a political activity, but [it] in Libya it’s becoming a commercial one. You have these for-profit warriors of every stripe going in"

And before we move on, just from upthread: this plane that, while on the ground, was destroyed from the air:
"Libya’s chaotic war is so freewheeling that some profiteers have even managed to work both sides of the front line. But it can be risky. :)

On Aug. 5, a drone operated by Mr. Hi[a]fter’s forces bombed a cargo plane on the runway at Misurata, in government-held [as in GNA] territory. It was the same SkyAviaTrans cargo plane that had delivered a helicopter to Mr. Hi[a]fter a month earlier. :lol: "
Ever-lasting truths: Multi-year budgets/ planning by necessity have to address the painful questions; more often than not the Either-Or prevails over Both-And.
If everyone is thinking the same, then someone is not thinking (attributed to Patton)

Caribbean
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Re: 'Liberated' Libya

Post by Caribbean »

ArmChairCivvy wrote:On Aug. 5, a drone operated by Mr. Hi[a]fter’s forces bombed a cargo plane on the runway at Misurata, in government-held [as in GNA] territory. It was the same SkyAviaTrans cargo plane that had delivered a helicopter to Mr. Hi[a]fter a month earlier. :lol: "
SkyAviaTrans - that was the name of the airline! Thanks @ACC :thumbup:
Olena Malakhova, director of #SkyAviaTrans which played key role in illegal weapon smuggling from #Turkey to #Libya is among victims of Flight #PS752 shot-down! She was in #Iran to discuss about one of her businessjets in use as an Air Taxi in #Tehran
Pretty risky meeting, considering they had also been flying direct flights from the Emirates with cargos for forces fighting Iran's proxies in a number of places. Apparently using the classic "boxes marked "Machine Tools" and "Humanitarian Aid" ploy"
The pessimist sees difficulty in every opportunity. The optimist sees the opportunity in every difficulty.
Winston Churchill

Lord Jim
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Re: 'Liberated' Libya

Post by Lord Jim »

Don't forget that large number of boxes labelled "Acme Industries".

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Re: 'Liberated' Libya

Post by ArmChairCivvy »

Stalemate as General Haftar after having lost the battle for Tripoli last week sent his militia forces to shut down Libya's two largest oil fields this week.

Only the geopolitical pressure mounting on both sides will bring a solution. The side that does not have the oil will not be looking forward to much development (though ten years back Italian interests had lined up big tourist developments; that was then).
Ever-lasting truths: Multi-year budgets/ planning by necessity have to address the painful questions; more often than not the Either-Or prevails over Both-And.
If everyone is thinking the same, then someone is not thinking (attributed to Patton)

MammaLiTurchi
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Re: 'Liberated' Libya

Post by MammaLiTurchi »

Not noticed, but TuAF was on aerial military exercise yesterday which lasted 8 hours, participants were;

- 1 E7 AEW&C Aircraft
- 2 C130 "simulated" precious cargo
- 2 KC-135R Stratotankers
- 12 F16C with full A/A load
- ? F4 or F16 with A/G ? load

Considering already at-site 3 Oliver Hazard Perry's, it was a serious exercise.

Last week same exercise done with more planes and tankers.

Turkey now amassing GNA troops near Sirte and not letting them attack with meaningless loser-arab style tactics. Planes and cargo aircraft literally formed a transport lane between Istanbul and Tripoli.

When the right time comes, I believe Sirte and Jufra will be taken and TuAF will make sure Egypt or Russia won't be able to stop this blitzkrieg.

Also, yesterday, a Greek helicopter took off from a Greek frigate attempted to search a tanker ship coming from Istanbul going to Misrata as to "investigate" if it carries weapons to Libya. Nearby Turkish frigate made an announcement "This ship is under protection of Republic of Turkey". Italian commander of IRINI operation ordered Greek helicopter to halt its attempt and come back. Ship made its way to Misrata safe&well.

After this incident, Greek authorities, which wants weapons to flow Hafter while tries to intercept Turkish supplies to GNA, demanded that they want the command of operation IRINI. Now a Greek admiral in charge of operation. Let us see if this Greek admiral will make a stand.

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Re: 'Liberated' Libya

Post by ArmChairCivvy »

Starting to sound like WW2 (note: not 3) with Sirte, then Benghazi, then Crete... all in flames?
"believe Sirte and Jufra will be taken and TuAF will make sure Egypt or Russia won't be able to stop this"

Int'l newspieces were not specific about which two oilfields in the South Haftar grabbed, but as per
https://149354316.v2.pressablecdn.com/w ... ya_Map.jpg
there would only seem to be such complexes along the pipeline - not the other, westernmost from Wafa.
Ever-lasting truths: Multi-year budgets/ planning by necessity have to address the painful questions; more often than not the Either-Or prevails over Both-And.
If everyone is thinking the same, then someone is not thinking (attributed to Patton)

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Re: 'Liberated' Libya

Post by ArmChairCivvy »

Jufra... designed by the Finns, built by :!: the Turkish, the roads to there (a long way) built by Koreans
OK - it is all about oil.

So, spotted these two articles (haven't even read them yet, but as things in Libya move - at times - fast, thought I better post them for further thoughts):

A wide one, almost a backgrounder: https://carnegieendowment.org/2019/07/0 ... oifQ%3D%3D

And more to what / who applies to Libya (add in Russian AF... in Jufra. That's why I started there. The airfield has had Libyan planes, stationary, since the early 90s:
https://carnegieendowment.org/2020/06/0 ... oifQ%3D%3D
Ever-lasting truths: Multi-year budgets/ planning by necessity have to address the painful questions; more often than not the Either-Or prevails over Both-And.
If everyone is thinking the same, then someone is not thinking (attributed to Patton)

MammaLiTurchi
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Re: 'Liberated' Libya

Post by MammaLiTurchi »



Turkish frigates illuminated French Navy via their radars. French uttered their uncomfort with Turkish arms supply to Libya, which they think will put Haftar in further trouble.

I always thought, that France is the Russia s geopolitical ally since why not

NATO should understand that stopping Sino-Russian aggression requires Turkey wherever Russia can show flag, with its other allies

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Re: 'Liberated' Libya

Post by Phil Sayers »

Some kind of limited Egyptian military intervention seems to be imminent based on comments made by Sisi today:


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ArmChairCivvy
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Re: 'Liberated' Libya

Post by ArmChairCivvy »

A nice graph from the BBC
https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/800/cpspr ... 640-nc.png
which shows how Turkey has been careful to stay away from the area of Egyptian claim, but not so as far as Greece/ Cyprus are concerned
- the post above was about the line drawn in the sand

Souda Bay is missing (from Crete). Why would that matter? ... as the US ForeignSec just went to see if the base from Turkey could be relocated there (to the existing naval base*) as there is 'no end in sight' for the funny games by Turkey's president

* ---
Currently not a "proper base" The United States Naval Support Activity (NSA) Souda Bay is located on the Hellenic Air Force Base by the village of Mouzouras 17 Kilometers (approximately 10 miles) east of the city of Hania. NSA occupies an area of approximately 110 acres on the North side of the air base
Ever-lasting truths: Multi-year budgets/ planning by necessity have to address the painful questions; more often than not the Either-Or prevails over Both-And.
If everyone is thinking the same, then someone is not thinking (attributed to Patton)

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Re: 'Liberated' Libya

Post by ArmChairCivvy »

MammaLiTurchi wrote:What I wonder is the stance of NATO. US does not want Russia to dominate EastMed but also does not want to leave the area for Turkey.
A strange dichotomy; I would have thought that NATO wants neither?

NATO is a security and defence alliance and recognises that there will always be conflicting economic interests - be they members or not.

However, with any boycott/ embargo ideas Erdogan is playing with fire with the EU. Suffice to say that in 2019 Turkey was the EU’s 5th largest trading partner, export market and provider of imports.
- The EU is by far Turkey’s number one import and export partner, as well as source of investments.

After several years of rapid growth in the EU-Turkey bilateral trade in goods, it was curbed by Turkey’s economic difficulties in 2018 and in 2019 trade continued to show a mixed picture, bringing Turkey’s overall trade deficit to a ten-year low of €26.3 billion.

... fairly quiet in Libya, btw?
Ever-lasting truths: Multi-year budgets/ planning by necessity have to address the painful questions; more often than not the Either-Or prevails over Both-And.
If everyone is thinking the same, then someone is not thinking (attributed to Patton)

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