If Biden wins

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ArmChairCivvy
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Re: If Biden wins

Post by ArmChairCivvy »

eEconomist has a good feature
"Forecasting the US elections
The Economist is analysing..." polls, stats and all the rest.

March 14 was the last day (polling data) when Trump reached 270
- so he will say China sent the virus because they don't like him

Either part of the sentence may be true, but putting them together with the "bcz" would be a bit rich
Ever-lasting truths: Multi-year budgets/ planning by necessity have to address the painful questions; more often than not the Either-Or prevails over Both-And.
If everyone is thinking the same, then someone is not thinking (attributed to Patton)

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ArmChairCivvy
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Re: If Biden wins

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We can also try to observe if the Nixonian realisation that from the three superpowers one facing the two alone is not sustainable
- well he sent Kissinger... not that it wouldn't have been his idea

Just that the three economic superpowers are the US, the EU and China (militarily it does not quite work that way, but that's detail. The sums still come up the same)
- Putin has made sure that he has a close relationship with Xi (especially as Russia is a regional power now, though 'punching above its weight' from the military perspective)
- so he can't be pulled off that orbit without a v high reward

So what form of Atlanticism will Biden's team adopt (so that the Obama-Trump pivot to the Pacific can be kept going)
while supporting Europe in keeping Russia in check?
Ever-lasting truths: Multi-year budgets/ planning by necessity have to address the painful questions; more often than not the Either-Or prevails over Both-And.
If everyone is thinking the same, then someone is not thinking (attributed to Patton)

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Pseudo
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Re: If Biden wins

Post by Pseudo »

ArmChairCivvy wrote:We can also try to observe if the Nixonian realisation that from the three superpowers one facing the two alone is not sustainable
- well he sent Kissinger... not that it wouldn't have been his idea

Just that the three economic superpowers are the US, the EU and China (militarily it does not quite work that way, but that's detail. The sums still come up the same)
- Putin has made sure that he has a close relationship with Xi (especially as Russia is a regional power now, though 'punching above its weight' from the military perspective)
- so he can't be pulled off that orbit without a v high reward

So what form of Atlanticism will Biden's team adopt (so that the Obama-Trump pivot to the Pacific can be kept going)
while supporting Europe in keeping Russia in check?
You mean a massive sigh of relief from the EU leadership? :D

Biden seems reasonably keen on greater regulation of major internet companies, so that's probably something that they can come together on. Though I think that the EU will probably want to go a lot further than a Biden administration would.

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ArmChairCivvy
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Re: If Biden wins

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This drama around counting votes has left out of the limelight the fact that control of the Senate gets voted on just two weeks before the Inauguration, as per NYT:
"Senate Majority in Balance as Perdue Re-election Race Goes to Runoff in Georgia

Mr. Perdue, a first-term Republican, narrowly failed to clear 50 percent of the vote, sending the race to a January runoff that, along with another runoff contest, will probably determine which party controls the Senate."

50/50 is not a gridlock... as the VP has a casting vote in there
... but if that does not happen, getting people confirmed for key gvmnt posts might become a drawn-out affair
Ever-lasting truths: Multi-year budgets/ planning by necessity have to address the painful questions; more often than not the Either-Or prevails over Both-And.
If everyone is thinking the same, then someone is not thinking (attributed to Patton)

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Pseudo
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Re: If Biden wins

Post by Pseudo »

ArmChairCivvy wrote:This drama around counting votes has left out of the limelight the fact that control of the Senate gets voted on just two weeks before the Inauguration, as per NYT:
"Senate Majority in Balance as Perdue Re-election Race Goes to Runoff in Georgia

Mr. Perdue, a first-term Republican, narrowly failed to clear 50 percent of the vote, sending the race to a January runoff that, along with another runoff contest, will probably determine which party controls the Senate."

50/50 is not a gridlock... as the VP has a casting vote in there
... but if that does not happen, getting people confirmed for key gvmnt posts might become a drawn-out affair
It hadn't escaped my attention. I think that there's at least half a chance that Stacy Abrams turnout machine combined with Kelly Loeffler being quite heavily disliked could be enough to push the special election seat for the Democrats. I'm not so confident that it'll be enough for Ossoff to beat Perdue. Having said that, there definitely appears to have been a Trump personal vote on Tuesday that probably won't be turning out in January, so I'm not completely writing off the possibility of it ending up a 50/50 split.

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SKB
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Re: If Biden wins

Post by SKB »

Image
Republican Congress + Republican Senate = Lame Duck Democrat President.
Biden won't accomplish anything, meaning a Republican landslide election in 2024. :mrgreen:

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ArmChairCivvy
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Re: If Biden wins

Post by ArmChairCivvy »

SKB wrote:Republican Congress + Republican Senate =
If you clean up the LHS of the equation, then there is some hope that the RHS will come out as per what the terms on the LHS say 8-)
Ever-lasting truths: Multi-year budgets/ planning by necessity have to address the painful questions; more often than not the Either-Or prevails over Both-And.
If everyone is thinking the same, then someone is not thinking (attributed to Patton)

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ArmChairCivvy
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Re: If Biden wins

Post by ArmChairCivvy »

A wild guess about whom we'll see on the transition team on foreign policy and national security:

"Rebecca Lissner is an Assistant Professor in the Strategic and Operational Research Department at the U.S. Naval War College and a Non-Resident Scholar at Georgetown University's Center for Security Studies. She also [has] served as Special Advisor to the Deputy Secretary at the U.S. Department of Energy and, during the 2016 election cycle, advised the Hillary Clinton campaign and transition team on foreign policy."
And one can have a sneak preview of what the policy statements will say:
"Dr. Lissner’s research and writing focuses on U.S. national security strategy and the future of international order. She is the co-author of An Open World: How America Can Win the Contest for Twenty-First-Century Order (Yale University Press, 2020) and is working on a second book examining the effects of military interventions on American grand strategy" AKA 'forever wars'
Ever-lasting truths: Multi-year budgets/ planning by necessity have to address the painful questions; more often than not the Either-Or prevails over Both-And.
If everyone is thinking the same, then someone is not thinking (attributed to Patton)

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Pseudo
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Re: If Biden wins

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SKB wrote:Republican Congress + Republican Senate = Lame Duck Democrat President.
Biden won't accomplish anything, meaning a Republican landslide election in 2024. :mrgreen:
I wouldn't be so sure. There's no chance of the House going Republican but even in the likely event that the Democrats don't pick up the Georgia seats in the January runoffs the 2022 midterm map doesn't look good for the senate Republicans.

Also, I'm not entirely sure what the GOP will look like moving forward. The Republican establishment will obviously move on as quickly as they can, but I think that there's going to be a bit of a fight over the Trumpster loyalists.

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ArmChairCivvy
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Re: If Biden wins

Post by ArmChairCivvy »

Pseudo wrote: not entirely sure what the GOP will look like moving forward
Back to the 60s: political scientists were saying that you couldn't tell the two main parties apart, and hence the voters would lose interest
- well, for now, problem solved!
Ever-lasting truths: Multi-year budgets/ planning by necessity have to address the painful questions; more often than not the Either-Or prevails over Both-And.
If everyone is thinking the same, then someone is not thinking (attributed to Patton)

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Pseudo
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Re: If Biden wins

Post by Pseudo »

ArmChairCivvy wrote:
Pseudo wrote: not entirely sure what the GOP will look like moving forward
Back to the 60s: political scientists were saying that you couldn't tell the two main parties apart, and hence the voters would lose interest
- well, for now, problem solved!
I'm just not sure if someone like Ted Cruz will be able to gain supremacy with the Trumpsters and carry them in to the outskirts of the Republican establishment vote or whether it'll be someone more closely connected to Trump or even Trump himself, in which case there's a not entirely unlikely possibility that whoever it is (Don Jr/Ron DeSantis?) loses the primaries and potentially runs as an independent handing 2024 to the Democrats.

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Re: If Biden wins

Post by Caribbean »

SKB wrote:Republican Congress + Republican Senate = Lame Duck Democrat President.
I thought that Congress is pretty definite for the Democrats (by around 4 seats) and that there is a strong possibility of a 50:50 Senate (giving the VP the casting vote), as one of the Republican "winners" failed to get 50% of the vote, meaning a re-run in 2 weeks time (where Trump's "personal vote" may not turn out)
The pessimist sees difficulty in every opportunity. The optimist sees the opportunity in every difficulty.
Winston Churchill

BlueD954
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Re: If Biden wins

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BlueD954
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Re: If Biden wins

Post by BlueD954 »

Also


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ArmChairCivvy
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Re: If Biden wins

Post by ArmChairCivvy »

I don't want to be pedantic (never :o ) but
the United States Congress or U.S. Congress is a bicameral legislature and consists of two chambers:
- the House of Representatives, and
- the Senate.

Unlike here, the upper 'house' cannot be ignored, which is of course the crux of the matter that we are discussing.
Ever-lasting truths: Multi-year budgets/ planning by necessity have to address the painful questions; more often than not the Either-Or prevails over Both-And.
If everyone is thinking the same, then someone is not thinking (attributed to Patton)

BlueD954
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Re: If Biden wins

Post by BlueD954 »

ArmChairCivvy wrote:I don't want to be pedantic (never :o ) but
the United States Congress or U.S. Congress is a bicameral legislature and consists of two chambers:
- the House of Representatives, and
- the Senate.

Unlike here, the upper 'house' cannot be ignored, which is of course the crux of the matter that we are discussing.
Ok fine. Biden will face a big challenge getting nominations through the Senate. Biden will also face a challenge getting appropriations met since the House of Representatives is Democrat-dominated while the Senate is Republican dominated. Facts of US politics.

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ArmChairCivvy
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Re: If Biden wins

Post by ArmChairCivvy »

BlueD954 wrote: Facts of US politics.
Indeed. Just wanted the terms of 'the discourse' to be clear, i.e. right.

The Congress is not a plural, as for the 'Houses' here... but both are a game of two parts, when the cogs easily start to be 'not meshing' (bicameral for int'l comparisons).
Ever-lasting truths: Multi-year budgets/ planning by necessity have to address the painful questions; more often than not the Either-Or prevails over Both-And.
If everyone is thinking the same, then someone is not thinking (attributed to Patton)

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ArmChairCivvy
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Re: If Biden wins

Post by ArmChairCivvy »

Trade wars: from @ 3mins

out to @5 and a half
... can't cut the tail off (of the vid, with other topics)
Ever-lasting truths: Multi-year budgets/ planning by necessity have to address the painful questions; more often than not the Either-Or prevails over Both-And.
If everyone is thinking the same, then someone is not thinking (attributed to Patton)

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RichardIC
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Re: If Biden wins

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If Trump's multiple litigations are to stand any chance of success he is going to have to assemble the most formidable legal team ever seen.

Image

... Just saying.

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ArmChairCivvy
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Re: If Biden wins

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From 2016
... may be it has sunk in:

Not all young journos of course start from those blocks; but ready -set go with ideology; nothing wrong with that, either
... if there is an employer that not only pays you; but :idea:
- and here's the rub - also gets paid 'from above'
Ever-lasting truths: Multi-year budgets/ planning by necessity have to address the painful questions; more often than not the Either-Or prevails over Both-And.
If everyone is thinking the same, then someone is not thinking (attributed to Patton)

BlueD954
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Re: If Biden wins

Post by BlueD954 »

ArmChairCivvy wrote:
BlueD954 wrote: Facts of US politics.
Indeed. Just wanted the terms of 'the discourse' to be clear, i.e. right.

The Congress is not a plural, as for the 'Houses' here... but both are a game of two parts, when the cogs easily start to be 'not meshing' (bicameral for int'l comparisons).
Very well. Lots of people make that mistake even Congressmen/women.

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Re: If Biden wins

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Biased lefty American media reported the UK was celebrating Biden's win with fireworks on 5th November.
Apparently they'd never heard of Bonfire Night.... :lol: :mrgreen:

https://www.politifact.com/factchecks/2 ... brating-j/

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Re: If Biden wins

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SKB wrote:Biased lefty American media reports the UK was celebrating Biden's win with fireworks. Apparently they've never heard of Bonfire Night.... :mrgreen:
We used to call it cracker night in oz, one of my favourite times of the year when I was a young lad. Sadly the government ban it many many years ago

https://www.smh.com.au/lifestyle/rewind ... wj9fj.html

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RichardIC
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Re: If Biden wins

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SKB wrote:Biased lefty American media reported the UK was celebrating Biden's win with fireworks on 5th November.
Apparently they'd never heard of Bonfire Night...
You have just actually said "biased lefty American media". Yeah, they've never heard of Bonfire Night and why should they?

So this is the same problem you seem to have with the BBC. People who report facts that don't tally with you're world view are labelled as "biased" and "lefty" although I'll accept the fireworks bit was a mistake.

So can I ask where you get your news from? It seems to be a mixture of alt-right Twitter and you appear to spend a lot of time on YouTube. Are you on Parler yet? Whatever it is you've caught a galloping case of confirmation bias.

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Re: If Biden wins

Post by Blackstone »

SKB wrote:Biased lefty American media reported the UK was celebrating Biden's win with fireworks on 5th November.
Apparently they'd never heard of Bonfire Night.... :lol: :mrgreen:
When did Bonfire Night move from November 5th to November 7th?

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