UK Defence Forum

The war with the near-by Eritrea went on for ever, WW1 style... what is going to come out of this? Some stats picked up from Reuters:
The federal forces comprise around 140,000 personnel and are battle-hardened from fighting Somali militants, rebels in border regions and Eritrea in the past. But many senior officers were Tigrayan, much powerful weaponry is there, and the TPLF has seized the powerful Northern Command’s headquarters in Mekelle.

The TPLF itself is a formidable rival also with a proud history: it spearheaded the rebel march to Addis Ababa that ousted a Marxist dictatorship in 1991 and bore the brunt of the 1998-2000 war with Eritrea that killed hundreds of thousands.

What is worrying about this conflict is that the Tigrayans have a strong national identity within a loose federal state - just like the Igbos in Nigeria had when Biafra ' happened'
... and once it happened, it took quite a long time to resolve. Wiki says (though all figures are controversial)
"During the two and half years of the war, there were about 100,000 overall military casualties, while between 500,000 and 2 million Biafran civilians died of starvation."

Nigerian Civil War - Wikipedia
en.wikipedia.org

ArmChairCivvy wrote:just like the Igbos in Nigeria

I'm sure it's just a typo, but that's "Ibo", not "Igbo". I was there (as a child) at independence (quite literally, sat in stand number 1 at the Lagos racecourse, as Princess Alice read out the Independence Proclamation and the Union Flag was hauled down).

It seems like the national government forces have taken the Tigray capital. Are there any good sources reporting on the battles on the ground?

Caribbean wrote:

ArmChairCivvy wrote:just like the Igbos in Nigeria

I'm sure it's just a typo, but that's "Ibo", not "Igbo".

I fully agree with you, and had much fun figuring out where the 'g' came from. As we know what the English pronounciation for 'i' is the g has been added to make it more/closer to the phonetical 'i' which is how the Nigerians say it.
"
A Guide to the Indigenous People of Nigeria - Culture Trip
theculturetrip.com › Nigeria › Guides & Tips
Oct 4, 2018 — These tribes, Yoruba, Hausa and Igbo, are the three major tribes in Nigeria. However, there exists a large number of other tribes"

Now, to prove that I have been to Nigeria, too, the then leader of Biafra had his name pronounced as Ozumekwu Ozjukhwu
... needless to say that all those reporting on the Biafra war 'failed'

ArmChairCivvy wrote:

Caribbean wrote:

ArmChairCivvy wrote:just like the Igbos in Nigeria

I'm sure it's just a typo, but that's "Ibo", not "Igbo".

I fully agree with you, and had much fun figuring out where the 'g' came from. As we know what the English pronounciation for 'i' is the g has been added to make it more/closer to the phonetical 'i' which is how the Nigerians say it.
"
A Guide to the Indigenous People of Nigeria - Culture Trip
theculturetrip.com › Nigeria › Guides & Tips
Oct 4, 2018 — These tribes, Yoruba, Hausa and Igbo, are the three major tribes in Nigeria. However, there exists a large number of other tribes"

Now, to prove that I have been to Nigeria, too, the then leader of Biafra had his name pronounced as Ozumekwu Ozjukhwu
... needless to say that all those reporting on the Biafra war 'failed'

It's pronounced ee-bou, though, so I'm not sure how the "g" would emphasise the correct pronunciation. There is also a separate ethnic group (aka "tribe") called the Ebu - so maybe the "g" was introduced to clarify that I(g)bo is not a simple misspelling of Ebu (or vice versa, since the Ibo are far more numerous). Odd things creep in with anglicisation of non-english names and places - it has some odd spelling/ pronunciation rules, to say the least.

An item appearing https://www.reuters.com/video/watch/cre ... n=8gwsyvzx
on itself not a surprise.

But Eritrea is rumoured to have agreed to host a PLAN base. So if the Addis Abeba gvmnt is oriented to the West, will there be some fine tuning at the Eritrea end?

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-55476831 by Alex De Waal
Africa analyst, going by the credit at the end of the article (credit to the same person) is not(? - double hatting is allowed, especially if it helps to bring in depth analysis) a BBC story, but a hat tip for publishing it under news. Among other things, explains the little (territorial) bung that was behind the previous (the post above) development, reported by Reuters.

However, the BBC piece also (in a short format) reveals why the small cogs started slipping... as the big wheel started turning:
"In October 2019, Mr Abiy [of Ethiopia] flew to the Russia-Africa summit at Sochi. On the side-lines he met Egyptian President Abdul Fattah al-Sisi.

In a single meeting, with no foreign ministry officials present, Mr Abiy upended Ethiopia's Nile waters strategy.

He agreed to Mr Sisi's proposal that the US treasury should mediate the dispute on the Gerd [ a mega dam, controlling the flow]. The US leaned towards Egypt.

If the young Ethiopian leader, who [was thursting for more laurels as he] had just won the Nobel Peace Prize for ending tensions with Eritrea, thought he could also secure a deal with Egypt, he was wrong. The opposite happened: the 44-year-old cornered himself.

Sudan was the third country invited to negotiate in Washington DC. Vulnerable to US pressure because it desperately needed America to lift financial sanctions imposed when it was designated a "state sponsor of terrorism" in 1993, Sudan fell in with the Egyptian position."

A little bit of icing on this cake (which is still baking):
"Ethiopian public opinion turned against the American proposals and Mr Abiy was forced to reject them, after which the US suspended some aid to Ethiopia. [+ ] US President Donald Trump warned that Egypt might "blow up" the dam, and
[...] Ethiopia declared a no-fly zone over the region where the dam is located."

Which one is Putin and which one the finely-balanced & extremely stable, genius POTUS in this story?

looks like it will soon be the time to change the thread title as Ethiopia is increasingly looking like heading down the "ex-Yugoslavia way".

A small snippet from a wide-ranging article in Foreign Affair, by
NIC CHEESEMAN, a Professor of Democracy at the University of Birmingham.
&
YOHANNES WOLDEMARIAM, teaches International Relations at the University of Colorado.


"Abiy’s latest offensive was designed to push the Tigrayan forces out of the Amhara and Afar regions and cut off their supply lines so that they could no longer provide for the Tigrayan people. Instead, Ethiopian troops not only failed to win back territory but lost control of the cities of Dessie and Kombolcha in Amhara, likely giving the rebels access to an airport and thwarting Abiy’s efforts to block access to the region. Even more troubling for Abiy’s government, Tigrayan forces have begun coordinating with the Oromo Liberation Army (OLA), which has intensified a long-running insurgency and is closing in on the capital from the southwest. Recent press reports suggest that both rebel movements may join together with other opposition groups to forge an anti-Abiy alliance under the banner of the United Front of Ethiopian Federalist Forces."