UK Defence Forum

Jdam wrote: ↑06 Jun 2023, 21:51 I don't know how this really effects anything as I don't believe Ukraine was planning on a Dnipro River crossing as part of the counter offensive. I guess Russia could move more troops further up the river.

It might cause a delay to an offensive SE, as many predict an armoured drive to the coast, turning Crimea into a pocket, then turning south, routing the Russians from Crimea.

If ( big if) this does end in some sort of 'settlement', the Ukrainians will prioritise the recapture of the Crimean peninsula, I am sure.

I hear the Germans ( huge surprise) have refused to supply Taurus AGM's to Ukraine, can someone remind me who's side the Germans are on this time round??

Jdam wrote: ↑06 Jun 2023, 21:51 I don't know how this really effects anything as I don't believe Ukraine was planning on a Dnipro River crossing as part of the counter offensive. I guess Russia could move more troops further up the river.

One effect of draining the reservoir is that it will no longer form an effective barrier. There are opportunities for Ukraine to effect crossings once the reservoir floor has dried out sufficiently (which may take a while, to be fair)

NickC wrote: ↑07 Jun 2023, 11:06 Night of 6th June Ukrainian Air Force claims to have destroyed 35 out of 35 of the Kh-101/Kh-555 sub-sonic missiles (Russian equivalent of a Tomahawk) launched from Tu-95 bombers from the Caspian Sea.

https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2023/06/6/7405478/

BZ ukrainian air force.

A tweet surfaced which appears to show a Russian Lancet UAV taking out the IRIS-T SLM Hensoldt TRML-4D radar, if true a major success for the Russians as the first IRIS-T SLM system reported to have been very effective in taking out the Russian cruise missiles and the second system has only just del'd, end of May.

June 9th another additional $2.1 billion US weapons package, what surprised me was the 8 inch /203mm rounds presume for the M110 howitzer which have seen no mention of.
• Additional munitions for Patriot air defense systems;
• HAWK air defense systems and missiles;
• 105mm and 203mm artillery rounds;
• Puma Unmanned Aerial Systems;
• Laser-guided rocket system munitions;
• Support for training, maintenance, and sustainment activities.

https://insidedefense.com/insider/uk-me ... ustainment

Forbes reporting Ukraine taking losses in current offensive as it has lost half (5) of its specialised Leopard 2R 69t breaching tanks in clearing path through the Russian minefields

https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidaxe/2 ... -vehicles/

There is a lot of doubt as to whether the footage of the mine plough losses are genuine. Various analysts have been running photoshop and AI detection software over the images and all are coming up with a high chance of them being fake.

Some of the more obvious signs are mine plough track ending abruptly in the middle of a field, with no evidence that the vehicle either turned or reversed out.

Yes a lot of fake stuff out there at the moment

Like it or not losses were always going to happen.

https://www.politico.com/news/2023/06/1 ... 63?cid=apn

Did wonder if the re-start of Starstreak production result of the Russian attack helicopters now equipped with effective DIRCM to defeat the IR MANPADS, but Intelligence Update saying its due to long range missiles, surprised Russians have that capability to target them so accurately on individual tanks.

Detailed article on the pros and cons of Australia transferring their recently retired fleet of A/B model Hornets to Ukraine. Personally, I think they would be a good fit and in many respects superior to early model Falcons:

https://www.popularmechanics.com/milita ... rnet-jets/

Russians cannot shoot down the Storm Shadow's with their Pansir S1's - Epic fail ...

The latest $800 million US military aid package installment includes the controversial DPICM cluster munition 155 mm shells, total US military assistance to Ukraine hits $41.3 billion

• Additional munitions for Patriot air defense systems;
• AIM-7 missiles for air defense;
• Stinger anti-aircraft systems;
• Additional ammunition for High Mobility Artillery Rocket Systems (HIMARS);
• 31 155mm Howitzers;
• 155mm artillery rounds, including DPICM, and 105mm artillery rounds;
• 32 Bradley Infantry Fighting Vehicles;
• 32 Stryker Armored Personnel Carriers;
• Mine clearing equipment;
• Tube-Launched, Optically-Tracked, Wire-Guided (TOW) missiles;
• Javelin and other anti-armor systems and rockets;
• Precision aerial munitions;
• Penguin Unmanned Aerial Systems;
• 27 tactical vehicles to recover equipment;
• 10 tactical vehicles to tow and haul equipment;
• Demolitions munitions and systems for obstacle clearing;
• Small arms and over 28 million rounds of small arms ammunition and grenades;
• Spare parts and other field equipment.

https://insidedefense.com/insider/us-in ... ns-package

Interesting given the much vaunted A2AD one hears so much about.


https://news.sky.com/video/share-12930598

This should put a serious dent in Russian logistics - I'm no engineer but I doubt there is a quick fix:

A interesting post from Naval News on Russian supply ships entering the black sea with for the conflict initially escorted by Russian warships is this a loophole to the ban on warships?
https://www.navalnews.com/naval-news/20 ... black-sea/

The CNN report on this incident. Of note the 'n ship doesn't appear to react, no manoeuvring nor defensive fire seen. Also check out the location of Novorossiysk on and map, and just how far it is away from Ukrainian held territory.

....and the BBC report of the attack on a 'n tanker.

BBC News - Russia says tanker hit in Ukrainian attack near Crimea

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-66412842

Times reporting UK supplying Ukraine with ASRAAM's, (older Block 4's? Block 6 now in production/operational) to use as ad hoc SAM's, two launches fitted to the rear bed of Supacat 6x6, guessing the guidance by equivalent of the optical helmet mounted sight as it appears no radar, understand ASRAAM can be fired by relying just on its autonomous infrared search seeker.

Think the urgent operational requirement is the frontline need to protect its tanks etc from attacks by drones and Russian's relatively new 14.5 km range LMUR missiles used by latest Mi-28NM and Ka-52M, which outrange the MANPADS, Starstreak etc used by Ukraine.

NickC wrote: ↑05 Aug 2023, 12:36 Times reporting UK supplying Ukraine with ASRAAM's, (older Block 4's? Block 6 now in production/operational) to use as ad hoc SAM's, two launches fitted to the rear bed of Supacat 6x6, guessing the guidance by equivalent of the optical helmet mounted sight as it appears no radar, understand ASRAAM can be fired by relying just on its autonomous infrared search seeker.

Think the urgent operational requirement is the frontline need to protect its tanks etc from attacks by drones and Russian's relatively new 14.5 km range LMUR missiles used by latest Mi-28NM and Ka-52M, which outrange the MANPADS, Starstreak etc used by Ukraine.

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If you are wondering what that sensor mast on the Supacat ASRAAM launcher is, look up Thales ROTAS and Chess Dynamics