SSN-AUKUS Future Astute Replacement (2030s) (RN) [News Only]

[Poiuytrewq]

I did think that an increase in tempo was coming when they announced a new assembly building at Barrow & started recruiting. It was also stated that the current building can handle more concurrent builds than it currently is.

Will the increase in tempo reduce build time or just have more boats under construction at any one time? IMO it needs to achieve both.

The average time from cutting steel to commissioning for an Astute is over 10 years. I know they are complicated builds but this needs to reduce down to 6 or 7 years max.

[Poiuytrewq]

Construction to start at Barrow in 2027/2028.

[Jensy]

Construction to start at Barrow in 2027/2028.

A crucial detail missed by many commentators is that the RAN plan to acquire 8 SSNs includes these 3 Virginia-class boats so a maximum of 5 new SSN-AUKUS will be built in Australia.

I've seen this point raised here and else where.

Whilst that might certainly be proved correct I don't understand how it squares with:

The RAN plans to run these [Virginia Class] submarines well into the 2050s

According to the timeline graphic there's about a decade between the first AUKUS entering RAN service and 2050. If the Aussies deliver one every three years (average of our 2-4 year Astute drumbeat) by 2055 then there's going to be additional AUKUS boats in build, or:

- The RAN will be down to five SSNs
- The Virginias will have to be life extended/swapped/replaced with SSN(X)

[SouthernOne]

Construction to start at Barrow in 2027/2028.

A crucial detail missed by many commentators is that the RAN plan to acquire 8 SSNs includes these 3 Virginia-class boats so a maximum of 5 new SSN-AUKUS will be built in Australia.

I've seen this point raised here and else where.

Whilst that might certainly be proved correct I don't understand how it squares with:

The RAN plans to run these [Virginia Class] submarines well into the 2050s

According to the timeline graphic there's about a decade between the first AUKUS entering RAN service and 2050. If the Aussies deliver one every three years (average of our 2-4 year Astute drumbeat) by 2055 then there's going to be additional AUKUS boats in build, or:

- The RAN will be down to five SSNs
- The Virginias will have to be life extended/swapped/replaced with SSN(X)

Agreed. A reasonable interpretation of the Aus gov announcement is that the ADF will operate a fleet of 8 SSNs, and that the number of Virginias and SSN-AUKUS in the fleet will change over time. One potential twist is that if the latter program experiences long delays or cost overruns for whatever reason, the options for additional Virginias may be taken up.

[shark bait]

Forward deploying to Perth sounds good, but spreading a small fleet even thinner.

There's a lot of value pushing the drone sub development to try and pad out the small submarine fleet the Navy will have in the North Atlantic.

[Poiuytrewq]

Forward deploying to Perth sounds good, but spreading a small fleet even thinner.

There's a lot of value pushing the drone sub development to try and pad out the small submarine fleet the Navy will have in the North Atlantic.

And if that is XLUUV or even XXLUUV will these be operated by LRG(S) or a separate RN MCM/ASW grouping?

A LHD/LSD combo operating ASW equipped MALE drones and multiple XLUUV could be a game changer in the region for a very modest cost.

[wargame_insomniac]

Forward deploying to Perth sounds good, but spreading a small fleet even thinner.

There's a lot of value pushing the drone sub development to try and pad out the small submarine fleet the Navy will have in the North Atlantic.

IIRC we currently have five Astutes and the last Trafalgar commisioned - not sure how many of those are actually available for service. When we have all 7 Astutes in servic (assuming we have sufficient crew!!) then we should have more boats at sea. So by then sparing one RN SSN to be advance deployed in rotation to Perth should be less of a strain.

I think th USN might be struggling with their basing 3 SSNs at Perth, unless they can sort out the backlog of parts affecting boats in refit or even those being constructed. US shipyards should be able to build two SSN a year and they are currently averaging 1.2.

[Ian Hall]

[xav]

At DSEI, BAE Systems was showcasing a new model dubbed "new generation submarine"... unfortunately they could not get "clearance for media engagement" but they did brief a MP when I was near the model.

If I understand right (but needs confirmation) this model shows work already conducted for SSN-R which BAE hopes to bring over to SSN AUKUS. As said in the video, this model should be shown at the show in Australia in two months and I'll try to find out more there and then



Day 3 at DSEI 2023 in London, UK.

In this video, Naval News focus on underwater systems:
01:02 - BAE Systems Herne XLUUV
03:19 - BAE Systems New Generation Submarine (SSN-AUKUS ?)
03:59 - JFD Shadow Seal special forces submersible
06:21 - RT SYS SonaBlow mine warfare system

[SW1]

https://ukdefencejournal.org.uk/bae-awa ... e-project/

The Ministry of Defence has awarded £3.95 billion of funding to BAE Systems for the next phase of the UK’s next-generation nuclear-powered attack submarine programme, known as SSN-AUKUS.

SSN-AUKUS will be the largest, most powerful and most advanced attack submarine the Royal Navy has ever operated and will eventually replace the Astute class, which BAE Systems builds at its site in Barrow-in-Furness, Cumbria.

[new guy]

https://ukdefencejournal.org.uk/bae-awa ... e-project/

The Ministry of Defence has awarded £3.95 billion of funding to BAE Systems for the next phase of the UK’s next-generation nuclear-powered attack submarine programme, known as SSN-AUKUS.

SSN-AUKUS will be the largest, most powerful and most advanced attack submarine the Royal Navy has ever operated and will eventually replace the Astute class, which BAE Systems builds at its site in Barrow-in-Furness, Cumbria.

first boat starting 2028

[Poiuytrewq]

first boat starting 2028

So unless Barrow speed up the drumbeat SSN numbers will not increase before the mid to late 2040’s unless Astute extends the OSD beyond 2035.

Otherwise it will be decades before AUKUS starts making a material difference for RN.

[new guy]

https://ukdefencejournal.org.uk/babcock ... ubmarines/

[SW1]

first boat starting 2028

So unless Barrow speed up the drumbeat SSN numbers will not increase before the mid to late 2040’s unless Astute extends the OSD beyond 2035.

Otherwise it will be decades before AUKUS starts making a material difference for RN.

If you wanted to increase the submarine fleet to say 16 eg 4 ssbn and 12 ssn then you would need to go to an 18 month drumbeat as reactors have a 25 year life and won’t be refuelled.

You need to make a long term decision to prioritise submarines above all else’s to make it so. Would help if they also prioritised switching the grid to nuclear power as well and widen the people and skills base with it.

[mrclark303]

first boat starting 2028

So unless Barrow speed up the drumbeat SSN numbers will not increase before the mid to late 2040’s unless Astute extends the OSD beyond 2035.

Otherwise it will be decades before AUKUS starts making a material difference for RN.

If you wanted to increase the submarine fleet to say 16 eg 4 ssbn and 12 ssn then you would need to go to an 18 month drumbeat as reactors have a 25 year life and won’t be refuelled.

You need to make a long term decision to prioritise submarines above all else’s to make it so. Would help if they also prioritised switching the grid to nuclear power as well and widen the people and skills base with it.

The only way the RN will get back to 12 SSN's, is first off, a sustained increase in the defence budget and initially running on the Astutes, so SSNR boat 8 replaces HMS Astute....

Obviously that won't happen, so we will have to run on the later Astutes, boats 4 to 7 and so the first three SSNR boats will replace the the first three Astutes, like for like.

I would love to see a fleet of 12 SSN's, but building back that mass and indeed retaining it, will be an enormously expensive undertaking.

To retain an active fleet of 12 (plus 4 bombers) in the next 40 years, you will need to be able to concurrently design replacements for both the AUKUS SSN and Dreadnought Class and slot both builds in together!!

That's assuming you can build up the Submarine Service back to the point you can man 8 active SSN'S and two active SSBN's, that itself will be extremely difficult, unless you offer far higher levels of pay and an excellent pension, based on shorter service...

The whole undertaking will be 'exquisitely' expensive !!!

[SW1]

first boat starting 2028

So unless Barrow speed up the drumbeat SSN numbers will not increase before the mid to late 2040’s unless Astute extends the OSD beyond 2035.

Otherwise it will be decades before AUKUS starts making a material difference for RN.

If you wanted to increase the submarine fleet to say 16 eg 4 ssbn and 12 ssn then you would need to go to an 18 month drumbeat as reactors have a 25 year life and won’t be refuelled.

You need to make a long term decision to prioritise submarines above all else’s to make it so. Would help if they also prioritised switching the grid to nuclear power as well and widen the people and skills base with it.

The only way the RN will get back to 12 SSN's, is first off, a sustained increase in the defence budget and initially running on the Astutes, so SSNR boat 8 replaces HMS Astute....

Obviously that won't happen, so we will have to run on the later Astutes, boats 4 to 7 and so the first three SSNR boats will replace the the first three Astutes, like for like.

I would love to see a fleet of 12 SSN's, but building back that mass and indeed retaining it, will be an enormously expensive undertaking.

To retain an active fleet of 12 (plus 4 bombers) in the next 40 years, you will need to be able to concurrently design replacements for both the AUKUS SSN and Dreadnought Class and slot both builds in together!!

That's assuming you can build up the Submarine Service back to the point you can man 8 active SSN'S and two active SSBN's, that itself will be extremely difficult, unless you offer far higher levels of pay and an excellent pension, based on shorter service...

The whole undertaking will be 'exquisitely' expensive !!!

The way to do it is to make a long term decision to prioritise submarines above all else’s to make it so. The current defence budget is sufficient.

They are starting the detailed design of Aukus and the first dreadnaught boat is in build. You would start dreadnaught replacement as they get to the later half of Aukus.

[xav]

For those who missed our DSEI video coverage, here is a picture of the "Next Generation SSN" showcased (and unveiled) by BAE at DSEI. Unfortunately, they couldn't share anything with me:

[SD67]

first boat starting 2028

So unless Barrow speed up the drumbeat SSN numbers will not increase before the mid to late 2040’s unless Astute extends the OSD beyond 2035.

Otherwise it will be decades before AUKUS starts making a material difference for RN.

If you wanted to increase the submarine fleet to say 16 eg 4 ssbn and 12 ssn then you would need to go to an 18 month drumbeat as reactors have a 25 year life and won’t be refuelled.

You need to make a long term decision to prioritise submarines above all else’s to make it so. Would help if they also prioritised switching the grid to nuclear power as well and widen the people and skills base with it.

The only way the RN will get back to 12 SSN's, is first off, a sustained increase in the defence budget and initially running on the Astutes, so SSNR boat 8 replaces HMS Astute....

Obviously that won't happen, so we will have to run on the later Astutes, boats 4 to 7 and so the first three SSNR boats will replace the the first three Astutes, like for like.

I would love to see a fleet of 12 SSN's, but building back that mass and indeed retaining it, will be an enormously expensive undertaking.

To retain an active fleet of 12 (plus 4 bombers) in the next 40 years, you will need to be able to concurrently design replacements for both the AUKUS SSN and Dreadnought Class and slot both builds in together!!

That's assuming you can build up the Submarine Service back to the point you can man 8 active SSN'S and two active SSBN's, that itself will be extremely difficult, unless you offer far higher levels of pay and an excellent pension, based on shorter service...

The whole undertaking will be 'exquisitely' expensive !!!

I don't get this idea that AUKUS costs money. In reality it saves money.

The build time of the Astute class was far longer than it needed to be due to the need to rebuild and retrain the Barrow workforce at the time, the enterprise-wide conversion to CAD and problems with PWR2. The first boat was effectively built twice. There has been massive improvement in facilities and systems since then, I wouldn't be surprised if we get 8-9 SSN-AUKUS-UK for the inflation adjusted cost of 7 Astute

[serge750]

It does look like a steady drumbeat of building to retain skills does work ! who knew

[Poiuytrewq]

It does look like a steady drumbeat of building to retain skills does work ! who knew

Completely agree but RN won’t receive an increase in SSN numbers for decades unless Astute pushes back the OSD.

If that can be pushed back by a decade then RN could have 10x SSN by 2040.

Building SSNs is never rapid!

[serge750]

extending the OSD seems to the norm lately ! so with the AUKUS deal high on the list im confident a extra boat will be on the list (preferably 2) of needs...

[SW1]

Hard to push back out of service dates when reactor life’s are finite and they won’t be refuelled.

[Scimitar54]

Each boat would only need to be pushed back by about 2 years (c.27 years Service) to increase the number of boats in the (UK) SSN Flotilla.
With eight, from commissioning of the first new (UK) boat, nine ought to be possible before 2040, reaching Ten by 2045 and the possibility of having Twelve by 2056.
All subject of course, to provision of adequate funding and crewing.

I would also point out that the last three Vanguard SSBN are not now expected to have their PWR2 reactors refuelled and yet all three of them are likely to have been in service for c.30 years.

[Poiuytrewq]

Each boat would only need to be pushed back by about 2 years….

We also can’t quantify at this point how much more efficient the production process will be after the investment in infrastructure has been completed.

An increase in construction efficiency of 20%-30% would make a big difference over the course of the program.

[shark bait]

Hard to push back out of service dates when reactor life’s are finite and they won’t be refuelled.

Spending more time in port means the fuel lasts longer, so the Navy can extend the life if they wish.