SSN-AUKUS Future Astute Replacement (2030s) (RN) [News Only]

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wargame_insomniac
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Re: SSN-AUKUS Future Astute Replacement (2030s) (RN) [News Only]

Post by wargame_insomniac »

new guy wrote: 11 Jun 2023, 19:09
Tempest414 wrote: 11 Jun 2023, 18:23 What happens after 2050 if the second hand boats arrive in 2032 with 20 years on the clock then by 2052 they run out of life so if the UK design goes ahead in 2040 then they could want /need 7 boats to keep to 8 boats add that to say 10 UK boats and we have 17 or 18

Now do Canada want in on this if so How many boats do they want
I don't think that Canada will join in. More viable units for them, definitely.
Yes, it is thought that the Australians want to have 8 SSN(R) , with them gaining some Virgina class as interim. It is thought that there is meant to be 20 in total, so 12 for the UK. The RN is going to have to get their act together for that to happen though. £24-36-48bn is a lot of money.
That was precisely the point of that article on Warzone I linked above, which I have assumed you have read?
There is NOT likely to be 20 Aukus Class subs.

The 8 subs for RAN includes a minimum iof one brand new US Virginia Class SSN, possibly another two optional purchases, and with it being unclear what happens as to the eventual replacements for the two initial second hand US Virginia Class SSN.

Where have you heard that RN would order 12 Aukus Class SSN? If we are lucky the RN will increase their number of SSNs from the pitifully low 7*Astutes.

So if we are lucky RN might order 8 or 9, and the RAN might order 3 to 5.

After that news from Australian parliamentary budget questions, anyone who thinks we are going to get total of 20 Aukus Class SSN is being naively optimistic or indulging in fantasy fleets with no connection to the likely realities.

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Re: SSN-AUKUS Future Astute Replacement (2030s) (RN) [News Only]

Post by JohnM »

By the time the RAN receives its 5th AUKUS boat the two used Virginias will have spent their 20 years of reactor life, so there’s a good chance the Aussies end up with at least 7 AUKUS boats.

As to the RN, even though the aspirations is 12 boats, I think it’s more likely the final number will be in the 9–10 range… a total run of 16-17 AUKUS boats would allow for a nice 1 1/2 year drumbeat per boat… that’s a realistic goal.
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Re: SSN-AUKUS Future Astute Replacement (2030s) (RN) [News Only]

Post by Scimitar54 »

A greater number of boats is possible, even working on a more comfortable 2 year drumbeat. It seems to be forgotten that the AUKUS boats will be built a two different locations, with two different construction teams. Perhaps some people did not read the terms of the agreement, but that is no excuse for them posting errata. The information is out there for those who can be bothered! 8-)

Yes the programme is long, but it is also vitally important. I shall not speculate on final numbers as the end of the “twin” programme(s) is 30+ years hence.

Against the current worsening global security situation, I would not expect that the final number of AUKUS boats would be less than 20. Do not forget that work on the (possible) RN Dreadnought (SSBN) Replacement would need to be started during the 2050’s, or are some people suggesting that we would want to go through “the last 20 year debacle” all over again, losing skills (and people) from both the Barrow (and RR) workforces. :idea:

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Re: SSN-AUKUS Future Astute Replacement (2030s) (RN) [News Only]

Post by Tempest414 »

new guy wrote: 11 Jun 2023, 19:09
Tempest414 wrote: 11 Jun 2023, 18:23 What happens after 2050 if the second hand boats arrive in 2032 with 20 years on the clock then by 2052 they run out of life so if the UK design goes ahead in 2040 then they could want /need 7 boats to keep to 8 boats add that to say 10 UK boats and we have 17 or 18

Now do Canada want in on this if so How many boats do they want
I don't think that Canada will join in. More viable units for them, definitely.
Yes, it is thought that the Australians want to have 8 SSN(R) , with them gaining some Virgina class as interim. It is thought that there is meant to be 20 in total, so 12 for the UK. The RN is going to have to get their act together for that to happen though. £24-36-48bn is a lot of money.
Dreadnought is a 31 billion pound program following on will be needed or we go back to the start

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Re: SSN-AUKUS Future Astute Replacement (2030s) (RN) [News Only]

Post by SW1 »

Tempest414 wrote: 12 Jun 2023, 08:46
new guy wrote: 11 Jun 2023, 19:09
Tempest414 wrote: 11 Jun 2023, 18:23 What happens after 2050 if the second hand boats arrive in 2032 with 20 years on the clock then by 2052 they run out of life so if the UK design goes ahead in 2040 then they could want /need 7 boats to keep to 8 boats add that to say 10 UK boats and we have 17 or 18

Now do Canada want in on this if so How many boats do they want
I don't think that Canada will join in. More viable units for them, definitely.
Yes, it is thought that the Australians want to have 8 SSN(R) , with them gaining some Virgina class as interim. It is thought that there is meant to be 20 in total, so 12 for the UK. The RN is going to have to get their act together for that to happen though. £24-36-48bn is a lot of money.
Dreadnought is a 31 billion pound program following on will be needed or we go back to the start
I could see the next ssbn after dreadnought be a continuation of the ssnr especially if the vertical launch system is using new very high speed missiles
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Re: SSN-AUKUS Future Astute Replacement (2030s) (RN) [News Only]

Post by tomuk »

Timmymagic wrote: 11 Jun 2023, 18:10
Astute was always a little too short and tubby so a modest extension for SSNR\AUKUS behind the sail for a couple Vigina Payload VLS for cruise missiles as has already been postulated many times would be a welcome addition.

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Re: SSN-AUKUS Future Astute Replacement (2030s) (RN) [News Only]

Post by Jake1992 »

tomuk wrote: 12 Jun 2023, 14:44
Timmymagic wrote: 11 Jun 2023, 18:10
Astute was always a little too short and tubby so a modest extension for SSNR\AUKUS behind the sail for a couple Vigina Payload VLS for cruise missiles as has already been postulated many times would be a welcome addition.
I think the Vigina payload system would be a mistake and it’d be better to go for the Dreadnought silos since they can deploy unmanned systems anti ship/ land strike or even nukes giving far better flexiblity in to the future.

Just imagine the headache it’d give the likes of Russia and China with them then known any AUKUS subs along with the SSBNs could be carrying nukes.
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Re: SSN-AUKUS Future Astute Replacement (2030s) (RN) [News Only]

Post by tomuk »

Jake1992 wrote: 12 Jun 2023, 17:37
tomuk wrote: 12 Jun 2023, 14:44
Timmymagic wrote: 11 Jun 2023, 18:10
Astute was always a little too short and tubby so a modest extension for SSNR\AUKUS behind the sail for a couple Vigina Payload VLS for cruise missiles as has already been postulated many times would be a welcome addition.
I think the Vigina payload system would be a mistake and it’d be better to go for the Dreadnought silos since they can deploy unmanned systems anti ship/ land strike or even nukes giving far better flexiblity in to the future.

Just imagine the headache it’d give the likes of Russia and China with them then known any AUKUS subs along with the SSBNs could be carrying nukes.
No that is completely the wrong posture to take if the Russians and China can't tell whether we are going nuclear then there is even less stopping them from going hot too. Nuclear war is not something to be trifled with, if it were to occur in Europe UK would cease to exists in minutes.
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Re: SSN-AUKUS Future Astute Replacement (2030s) (RN) [News Only]

Post by Jake1992 »

tomuk wrote: 12 Jun 2023, 19:48
Jake1992 wrote: 12 Jun 2023, 17:37
tomuk wrote: 12 Jun 2023, 14:44
Timmymagic wrote: 11 Jun 2023, 18:10
Astute was always a little too short and tubby so a modest extension for SSNR\AUKUS behind the sail for a couple Vigina Payload VLS for cruise missiles as has already been postulated many times would be a welcome addition.
I think the Vigina payload system would be a mistake and it’d be better to go for the Dreadnought silos since they can deploy unmanned systems anti ship/ land strike or even nukes giving far better flexiblity in to the future.

Just imagine the headache it’d give the likes of Russia and China with them then known any AUKUS subs along with the SSBNs could be carrying nukes.
No that is completely the wrong posture to take if the Russians and China can't tell whether we are going nuclear then there is even less stopping them from going hot too. Nuclear war is not something to be trifled with, if it were to occur in Europe UK would cease to exists in minutes.
We’ve seen with Ukrain what going the opersit way and getting rid of nukes can lead to, I am not saying we go around waving nukes in their faces but it being an unknown to them has them having to sit back and think more carefully.

But the nuke side of things in the silo regards is secondary to me, the main reason for choosing the Dreadnought silo over the Vigina silo set up is the over all flexiblity it gives you especially in the unmanned option.

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Re: SSN-AUKUS Future Astute Replacement (2030s) (RN) [News Only]

Post by tomuk »

Jake1992 wrote: 12 Jun 2023, 20:28
tomuk wrote: 12 Jun 2023, 19:48
Jake1992 wrote: 12 Jun 2023, 17:37
tomuk wrote: 12 Jun 2023, 14:44
Timmymagic wrote: 11 Jun 2023, 18:10
Astute was always a little too short and tubby so a modest extension for SSNR\AUKUS behind the sail for a couple Vigina Payload VLS for cruise missiles as has already been postulated many times would be a welcome addition.
I think the Vigina payload system would be a mistake and it’d be better to go for the Dreadnought silos since they can deploy unmanned systems anti ship/ land strike or even nukes giving far better flexiblity in to the future.

Just imagine the headache it’d give the likes of Russia and China with them then known any AUKUS subs along with the SSBNs could be carrying nukes.
No that is completely the wrong posture to take if the Russians and China can't tell whether we are going nuclear then there is even less stopping them from going hot too. Nuclear war is not something to be trifled with, if it were to occur in Europe UK would cease to exists in minutes.
We’ve seen with Ukrain what going the opersit way and getting rid of nukes can lead to, I am not saying we go around waving nukes in their faces but it being an unknown to them has them having to sit back and think more carefully.

But the nuke side of things in the silo regards is secondary to me, the main reason for choosing the Dreadnought silo over the Vigina silo set up is the over all flexiblity it gives you especially in the unmanned option.
Where did I say get rid of nukes? I just warned the opening that literal Pandora's box should be consider very seriously and carefully.

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Re: SSN-AUKUS Future Astute Replacement (2030s) (RN) [News Only]

Post by SD67 »

I was under he impression that the RN specifically does not want that crossover to ensure that a future government doesn't just cancel CASD and say "well the tubes on the SSNs are nuclear capable in a pinch"

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Re: SSN-AUKUS Future Astute Replacement (2030s) (RN) [News Only]

Post by SW1 »

I think Pandora’s box is already well and truly open in that regard


In other news

https://www.rolls-royce.com/media/our-s ... derby.aspx

Rolls-Royce today announced it plans to almost double the size of its Raynesway site, creating hundreds of new jobs in Derby. Funded by the MoD, the site development is required to meet the growth in demand from the Royal Navy and as a result of the recent AUKUS announcement.
In March 2023 it was confirmed that Rolls-Royce Submarines would provide all the nuclear reactor plants that will power new attack submarines as part of the tri-lateral agreement between Australia, the UK and US.

This increase in demand will see new manufacturing and office facilities being built on recently acquired land surrounding the existing Raynesway site. It will also create 1,170 skilled roles within Rolls-Royce across a range of disciplines, including manufacturing and engineering.
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Re: SSN-AUKUS Future Astute Replacement (2030s) (RN) [News Only]

Post by Zeno »

Submarines of many different types are and will in the future be using whatever is the best technology to project power ,I am not aware of any calls from the operators of such to come up with an international agreement limiting the abilities of their submarines ,the RAN will acquire some Virginia class with the AUKUS submarines and operate conventional missiles from them as to which time will tell , certainly flexibility in this aids the R.N just as much

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Re: SSN-AUKUS Future Astute Replacement (2030s) (RN) [News Only]

Post by Digger22 »

Not sure how this is part justified by 'increased demand from RN'. I know the reactor is bigger than earlier types, but that is different from Increased demand. That implies more reactors. Rewind to the seventies and eighties, we had far greater demand for reactors then. If the Increase in plant size was just down to Aus reactors, then surely the Australians would be footing the bill?

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Re: SSN-AUKUS Future Astute Replacement (2030s) (RN) [News Only]

Post by Caribbean »

Will this plant also be capable of building reactors for the planned 10 SMRs?
The pessimist sees difficulty in every opportunity. The optimist sees the opportunity in every difficulty.
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Re: SSN-AUKUS Future Astute Replacement (2030s) (RN) [News Only]

Post by dmereifield »

More than 7 SSN for UK????

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Re: SSN-AUKUS Future Astute Replacement (2030s) (RN) [News Only]

Post by dmereifield »

Caribbean wrote: 14 Jun 2023, 11:44 Will this plant also be capable of building reactors for the planned 10 SMRs?
That would be nice, but HMG seem intent on not seizing the initiative on SMRs...
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Re: SSN-AUKUS Future Astute Replacement (2030s) (RN) [News Only]

Post by tomuk »

dmereifield wrote: 14 Jun 2023, 13:58
Caribbean wrote: 14 Jun 2023, 11:44 Will this plant also be capable of building reactors for the planned 10 SMRs?
That would be nice, but HMG seem intent on not seizing the initiative on SMRs...
Rolls seem to be keeping the SMR separate from the sub reactors they announced the shortlist for the first SMR factory last year
The International Advanced Manufacturing Park (IAMP), Sunderland
Teesworks, Teesside
Gateway, Deeside
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Re: SSN-AUKUS Future Astute Replacement (2030s) (RN) [News Only]

Post by new guy »

Build of boat 1 starting in 2028

https://t.co/ZJgdAJDCdz
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Re: SSN-AUKUS Future Astute Replacement (2030s) (RN) [News Only]

Post by shark bait »

That is surprisingly soon. The T26 took 2 decades to get to steel cutting!

Let's all hope the political support remains.
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Re: SSN-AUKUS Future Astute Replacement (2030s) (RN) [News Only]

Post by R686 »

new guy wrote: 28 Jun 2023, 20:24 Build of boat 1 starting in 2028

https://t.co/ZJgdAJDCdz

That seems to be implying that boat 1 is being built in the UK, as far as i am of the understanding is that being built in Osbourne South Australia still.

Or is he just referring to the nuclear reactor module which I suspect is the case?

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Re: SSN-AUKUS Future Astute Replacement (2030s) (RN) [News Only]

Post by tomuk »

R686 wrote: 29 Jun 2023, 01:53
new guy wrote: 28 Jun 2023, 20:24 Build of boat 1 starting in 2028

https://t.co/ZJgdAJDCdz

That seems to be implying that boat 1 is being built in the UK, as far as i am of the understanding is that being built in Osbourne South Australia still.

Or is he just referring to the nuclear reactor module which I suspect is the case?
He talking about the first boat for the RN not the RAN.

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Re: SSN-AUKUS Future Astute Replacement (2030s) (RN) [News Only]

Post by R686 »

tomuk wrote: 29 Jun 2023, 02:02
R686 wrote: 29 Jun 2023, 01:53
new guy wrote: 28 Jun 2023, 20:24 Build of boat 1 starting in 2028

https://t.co/ZJgdAJDCdz

That seems to be implying that boat 1 is being built in the UK, as far as i am of the understanding is that being built in Osbourne South Australia still.

Or is he just referring to the nuclear reactor module which I suspect is the case?
He talking about the first boat for the RN not the RAN.
Ah I keep thinking of dreadnought construction when talking of submarine boat building in UK

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Re: SSN-AUKUS Future Astute Replacement (2030s) (RN) [News Only]

Post by Caribbean »

I did think that an increase in tempo was coming when they announced a new assembly building at Barrow & started recruiting. It was also stated that the current building can handle more concurrent builds than it currently is.
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Re: SSN-AUKUS Future Astute Replacement (2030s) (RN) [News Only]

Post by serge750 »

Perhaps now under the AUSUK agreement the have decided to keep up a steady drumbeat of work after realising the costs of extending the life of ships & boats is a false econamy.. as said many times - all this putting of decisions costs..... so hopefully no dilly dallying :thumbup:

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