UK Defence Forum

I remember the Siege (actually the seizure) of Mecca by the self-proclaimed Mahdi and his followers. The Saudi armed forces were quite heroic in the recapture, on one occasion, assaulting the central sanctuary armed only with knives, as they had not yet been given permission to carry firearms by the religious authorities (most of whom were hostages inside the sanctuary). They took very heavy casualties.

I'm sure the fact that the sanctuary was being refurbished by the Bin Laden group had nothing to do with what happened. The attackers clearly walked though all the security with AK47s, grenades and rocket launchers. I'm sure they didn't arrive via other routes

I also remember an earlier incident - sitting in my parents house in Riyadh (must have been 1974 or thereabouts), listening to the English language radio service, as a hijacked aircraft circled Riyadh, with the hijackers throwing passengers out of a door every hour or so. Probably no connection to the later Mecca incident. Or maybe not.

An interesting few months in my life that included assisting in locating and rescuing an abducted UK bride and her son and, in the process, sharing a whisky or two with a Saudi princess in a public park in Jeddah. Oh! And sharing a bottle of champagne with a man who had been a mercenary for more than 50 years!

Looking back, my early life was quite weird at times!

Caribbean wrote: ↑16 Jul 2022, 23:18 permission to carry firearms by the religious authorities (most of whom were hostages inside the sanctuary). They took very heavy casualties.

In the end the storming was co-operated by the French SF (from outside of Mecca, of course). The British also offered, but the French were preferred (why; don't know).
- some interesting non-firearm options were used: some quarters were flooded with enough water to conduct electricity... not quite the classic 'smoking them out'

ArmChairCivvy wrote: ↑30 May 2022, 06:07 The Madrid summit and with it a new concept (political) to be the cornerstone for military planning over the coming 4 years...

The new concept to be backed up by raising the quick-response force to be 300k strong. Have I seen any comments on these on these pages? May have been under my sombrero in this heat - and not paying attention

You don’t need to go to the South China Sea to confront china!

As I have long forseen and have warned for some time, if we are not prepared’ to confront them in the Indo-Pacific, THEY will grow, to a point where they confront us here in the N. Atlantic!

Scimitar54 wrote: ↑28 Jul 2022, 14:04 As I have long forseen and have warned for some time, if we are not prepared’ to confront them in the Indo-Pacific, THEY will grow, to a point where they confront us here in the N. Atlantic!

Agreed. But we are not yet in a position to do it by ourselves. We need to do that working with local countries like Singapore / Malaysia / Australia / New Zealand as well as allies such as Dutch and French, and start building relationships with the likes of Indonesia and Phillipines.

Thus if Spey and Tamar can help build new foundations for the T31's to benefit from when they are commissioned into service, then they will have achieved their mission.

Penny dropped?? prosperity has been based on supposedly cheap and stable Russian gas and cheap Chinese labour!



Full speech

https://www.eeas.europa.eu/eeas/eu-amba ... borrell_en

SW1 wrote: ↑11 Oct 2022, 12:32 Penny dropped?? prosperity has been based on supposedly cheap and stable Russian gas and cheap Chinese labour!



Full speech

https://www.eeas.europa.eu/eeas/eu-amba ... borrell_en

Hope so, but note no credit or acknowledgement of the UK for correct intelligence on the imminent invasion or the the mission to train and arm Ukraine. Until the EU can acknowledge the UKs strengths and attempt a genuine reconciliation (re Brexit, NIP etc) the continent will be a weaker, less secure, less prosperous place

It is a bit scary how much screwball Russia causes while China lurks in the background.

The “war” against China is not sending forces to the pacific it is industrial. In that western powers must over the next decade isolate its supply chains from Chinese control any sudden sanctions against China upon its aggression to say Taiwan at this time and until we do would wipe out most western economies long before western miltary forces ever engage.

Actually, it is ……….. “Both”.

dmereifield wrote: ↑11 Oct 2022, 17:32 Hope so, but note no credit or acknowledgement of the UK for correct intelligence on the imminent invasion or the the mission to train and arm Ukraine. Until the EU can acknowledge the UKs strengths and attempt a genuine reconciliation (re Brexit, NIP etc) the continent will be a weaker, less secure, less prosperous place

Yeah well, They (The Brussels political class, who run that shower of shit) now regard us rivals rather than allies. Individual countries can and still do work with us behind the scenes, but the EU as an organisation...that's a lost cause, too full of time serving, bitter and twisted petty little bureaucrats who will never forgive the UK for weakening the EU on the World stage.

It is truly embarrassing the number of people in the UK who still want to suck up to these wasters.

Some will never learn…

https://www.reuters.com/business/german ... 022-10-21/

Another lively year in geopolitics has just started.

That said, may it be a happy one for our 'circle' on these pages! - Sure does not (likely) look like that when you 'zoom out'...

The West owes Ukraine a debt that can't be repaid. They single handily flipped the narrative against the autocratic momentum.

In my life time I do believe we'll see a global world government and it will be in large part thanks to Ukraine.

I have read sufficient dystopian visions of the future under a World Government to say "Be careful what you might wish for"

Caribbean wrote: ↑06 Jan 2023, 08:45 I have read sufficient dystopian visions of the future under a World Government to say "Be careful what you might wish for"

Not many people are interested in a happy future of World Government in books though eh?

Anyways, this year is probably going to suck economically.

sunstersun wrote: ↑06 Jan 2023, 20:09 Not many people are interested in a happy future of World Government in books though eh?

I suspect you are thinking of novels. Not all books are novels.

Caribbean wrote: ↑06 Jan 2023, 22:28

sunstersun wrote: ↑06 Jan 2023, 20:09 Not many people are interested in a happy future of World Government in books though eh?

I suspect you are thinking of novels. Not all books are novels.

Correct. Maybe it's not bad. I'll take it those odds over where we lose to Russia/China/Iran/NK.

This feels 1938 times to me with how many conflict zones there are. Pakistan/India Iran/Israel, China/ Taiwan/US.

Except the one difference is the long term out scaler for economic resources isn't clear. Neither is the military advantage. I don't underestimate China.

Interesting development

https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/ ... e-00078771

America in Decline? World Thinks Again.

All depends on 2024 I guess.

We may need to reappraise our relationship with Saudi Arabia.

https://www.cnbc.com/2023/03/29/saudi-a ... gthen.html

Saudi Arabia’s cabinet approved a decision to join a China-led security bloc, strengthening Riyadh’s eastern ties in a further step away from U.S. interests.

The state-owned Saudi Press Agency said that, in a session presided by King Salman bin Abdulaziz, the Saudi cabinet on Tuesday approved a memorandum awarding Riyadh the status of dialogue partner in the Shanghai Cooperation Organization — a political, security and trade alliance that lists China, Russia, India, Pakistan and four other central Asian nations as full members.

Saudi interests have long been intertwined with those of leading SCO members China and Russia. Beijing is Riyadh’s largest trading partner, with bilateral trade worth $87.3 billion in 2021, according to Reuters.

China is a major consumer of hydrocarbon-reliant Saudi Arabia’s oil exports, with the two countries making significant inroads in each other’s petrochemical sectors — including the recent announcement by Saudi state-controlled oil giant Aramco of a joint venture that will build a refinery and petrochemical complex in Panjin in northeast China, alongside partners Norinco and the Panjin Xincheng Industrial Group.

Pain in the Middle East is the price of focusing on the Pacific. It's not pleasant, but it's necessary and affordable.

The key thing now is to decarbonize the energy grid asap.

https://substack.com/notes/post/p-114248250

2022 was a great year for the West geopolitically and a terrible year for China/Russia.

2023 is going to be a bit of a comeback.

jedibeeftrix wrote: ↑01 May 2023, 09:40

SW1 wrote: ↑30 Apr 2023, 16:50

jedibeeftrix wrote: ↑30 Apr 2023, 16:25 Global Britain may well be a slogan, and it may well be a slogan designed to cover a lack of (political) substance (within the government).

But it was not merely a slogan.

Global Britain is a recognition that that the centre of economic/political gravity has moved from europe to asia, and that europe is now a relatively smaller actor in disputes between other people. That we left the EU is almost incidental, other than the fact that it entailed recognising we would have to take responsibility for responding to this economic/political change.

Whose economic/political gravity has moved?

You mean apart from that dispute that has seen the largest invasion in Europe since the Second World War.

A snap shot but an interesting one from 2018 of uk trade

https://media.rs-online.com/image/uploa ... l-size.png

Our economic outlook has always been “global”

The worlds.

Economically:
https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10. ... 10.00066.x

And geopolitically:
https://asia.nikkei.com/Politics/Intern ... dian-Ocean

It's not complicated: The Ukraine war is small regional conflict where a poor medium sized neighbour(!) has completely absorbed the potential, material, and capacity of what purported to be the major security threat to NATO europe. Besides the utter absense of a 20thC world war standoff, Europe itself has shrunk in economic importance from ~25% of world GDP to ~20% at the turn of the century, and onward down to about 15% by the end of this decade. "Global Britain" is recognition that the world has moved east.

This seems more appropriate over here

More than 50% of the world gdp resides in Europe and North America not Asia so while Asia and its importance has risen it is not yet the worlds centre of importance it is open to question how long it will take to be.

With China being allowed into the WTO at the turn of century it gave the excuse of most in the west and in this I include america not just Europe to outsource our manufacture to China which has contributed to chinas share of gdp rising and as such Asias. After the last few years the realisation of China as an aggressive competitor may start the long process of revising that trend. We may see a further shifting of percentages based on a renewed desire for energy independence.

The india ocean has in itself been an important arena for trade for centuries and with india the world’s largest country like to remain so, it remains to be seen in these large population centres if the political governance is there to explore there potential. As an example Venezuela has the largest known oil reserves in the world it should be more wealthy than any country but due to political incompetence it is almost a failed state.


It’s the largest and most expensive armed conflict currently underway in the world and for those countries bordering Europe it is of vital strategic importance. There is no point worrying about a tiger two forests away when the bear is at the bottom of the tree your in.