SW1 wrote: ↑28 Aug 2022, 09:11
Why would Australia want the b21? Can only see this making sense if it was heading down the air launched nuclear role similar to some nato countries.
Zeno wrote: ↑28 Aug 2022, 23:35
Would a number of long range bombers make up for the time taken for the introduction of nuclear submarines?, its hard of course comparing apples with oranges but there would be a deterrent factor ,I would not dispute that it would be extremely expensive and so would getting any platform with similar capability ,its like you need to be an economist balancing some very large numbers.
It's all about the deterrent. The US provides an explicit nuclear umbrella that *should* ensure that any nuclear attack on Australia is answered in kind (it's always theoretical until it happens, but that's always been the case). Now if any US administration was to waver on this commitment (and the Trump administration came close with its isolationism), Australians might reassess their nuclear posture (and their commitment to non-proliferation treaties), but that hasn't happened yet. So, what we're really talking about is some sort of conventional weapon that provides sufficient *hurt* in numbers, location and effect that it *should* deter the Chinese.
The idea was that the "future submarine", first diesel powered and then later nuclear, would provide this deterrent (especially by getting in close to deliver the payload). 10 or 15 years ago, when the project first started, it was assumed there was time – strategic warning. Then stuff like this happened:
Now everyone is in a hurry to deliver some sort of *hurt* quicker, still with aggressive aspirations as to how far they can penetrate the Chinese IADS, still with sufficient payload and numbers. The B21 is definitely a possibility, but so are stealthy cruise missiles and hypersonic missiles with sufficient range and payload, provided some lesser aircraft can get close enough to launch them in sufficient numbers. Some of our strategic commentators (like ASPI), have a hard on for the B21 and have been pushing this wheelbarrow for a while. But there are usually other more sensible folk in the room when these things get decided, and I'm sure an analysis of effects will help them decide (and it's probably already been done a few times at this point). The Defence Minister has already discussed the possibility of hypersonic weapons:
"As well as the long-range nuclear submarines that will be delivered under the AUKUS pact, he pointed to the possible acquisition of hypersonic missiles that can be fired thousands of kilometres."
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal ... 5bd3x.html
I personally think that the review being undertaken at the moment will be very modest in its *improvements*. The whole government, let alone the Defence Minister and his review, would be very brave to embark upon an extremely expensive B21 program as well as a nuclear submarine program. The bleeding in the budget would be absolutely epic and I'm quite sure the government would be scaring the shit out of us to prepare for a commitment like that. There's a bit of that, but very modest. I think they would be doing a lot more to prep the public to this sort of commitment, and frankly the B21 might not be the best capability to deliver the effect. The US obviously think it has its uses, but they're doing all the other stuff as well, so read whatever you like into that.
So, my own personal opinion is that any changes will be flashy in PR terms, but probably not a huge financial commitment and definitely conventional weapons. They would have to double or triple the scare campaign for a B21 and probably blackmail bunch of "Green" politicians to get us to change our nuclear posture. It's less impossible than it once was – and some strategic commentators definitely talk about it – but that sort of change still seems pretty unlikely, so far. I think hypersonic weapons will get thrown into the mix, and that's it for now. If they win another election and the Chinese keep scaring them a bit, the government might feel more ambitious, but not yet.
Just my thoughts.