South America

[The Armchair Soldier]

A topic to discuss defence in South America.

[arfah]

.................

[JayDee]

Venezuelan president Nicolas Maduro was the only leader to take time during the recent Celac summit, to make a public statement on the Falklands/Malvinas pledging full support for Argentina's sovereignty claim over the Islands and promising not to rest until “the dream of Malvinas Argentinas comes true”.

That part says alot, venezuela can't do anything either..sigh.

[ArmChairCivvy]

Things are changing in Venezuela, even though the President still sits (as a relic):

"President Nicolas Maduro was elected in April 2013 to a six-year term.
Up until 5 January 2016, his party, the socialist PSUV, had a majority in the National Assembly, allowing him to pass laws smoothly and even allowing him to govern temporarily by executive decree.
President Maduro will now face a National Assembly in which the opposition MUD coalition is in the majority."

[ArmChairCivvy]

Maduro will now face a National Assembly in which the opposition MUD coalition is in the majority.

He wouldn't like to compared to Trump (same kind of gridlock; and equally unimpressive measures from the President, to break it). But Venezuela, since, has not quite managed to better Zimbabwe with 1000% inflation hitting... Reuters piece of today traces some parallels in the efforts to grapple with the problem:
"“On the issue of raising enough foreign currency to introduce the new currency, we (Zimbabwe) are on our way already, give us months, not years,” he said.

Zimbabwe currently has less than two weeks import cover, according to central bank data, and the government has previously said it would only consider launching a new currency if it had at least six months of reserves.

Locals are haunted by memories of the Zimbabwean dollar, which became worthless as hyperinflation spiraled to reach 500 billion percent in 2008, the highest rate in the world for a country not at war, wiping out pensions and savings.

A surrogate bond note currency introduced in 2016 to stem dollar shortages has also collapsed in value. "
- Venezuela thought that was so 'yester-year' and tried a similar crypto-currency scheme... which also collapsed
Maduro regime would itself have collapsed by now (supporting Cuba itself is in a crisis), were Putin and Iran not supportive - the latter sending oil and petroleum products to a country that based on data from OPEC has the highest proved oil reserves including non-conventional oil deposits: Venezuela (20% of global reserves), topping Saudi Arabia (18% of global reserves)
- and adding to that Corbyn's pal in Mexico (the new president) has effectively withdrawn from the Lima Alliance that promotes restoring stability to Venezuela, and by so doing eased the pressure (but only somewhat)

[ArmChairCivvy]

So wrecking the Venezuelan economy and making people (if they can) flee has now, with the latest developments, had the supporters to stand up and be counted:
Russia, Turkey, Iran, Bolivia
China (more mutedly) and Cuba (struggling with its own economic chaos)
Mexico (conditionally)

On this scale ( a reuters piece from today), should Maduro get 25 years?
"A Ukrainian court on Thursday sentenced former president Viktor Yanukovich in absentia to 13 years in jail on treason charges, a judge said, saying his conduct in office had opened the door to Russia's annexation of Crimea and conflict in eastern Ukraine."

[abc123]

About Maduro, I sincerely hope that they will throw him out of country ASAP. But, I'm afraid that a civil war ( or US intervention ) will be necesarry for that.

And about Yanukovich, he could argue that while he was the president, Crimea was firmly part of Ukraine.

[ArmChairCivvy]

about Yanukovich, he could argue that while he was the president

+
"The National Assembly argues that the presidential position is actually vacant because the election was unfair - and that under the constitution this means that Mr Guaidó, as head of the National Assembly, should take over as acting president instead."

But unlike the Romanian dictator, or Yanukovich, there is no hard core like Berkut or Securitate
"Following the 2014 Ukrainian revolution, Berkut was accused of historic illegal activities against Ukrainian citizens, such as racketeering, terrorism, physical violence, torture, voter intimidation against those who would elect non-Yanukovych candidates, and violence against protesters during Euromaidan"
to commit extreme acts. Rather, Maduro has bribed the upper echelons of the armed forces, which however have representation from the larger society at every other level.
- so tell them to shoot the demonstrators, and instead they might shoot those who gave the order

[ArmChairCivvy]

Soon the 300 millionaire Venezuelan generals and 400 Russian "private" contractors will be the only ones around Maduro; https://www.reuters.com/article/us-vene ... SKCN1PJ22M

Great efforts have been made to conceal the arrivals (the early ones offloaded in Cuba and came in on commercial flights):
"A Russian Ilyushin-96 flew into Havana late on Wednesday after starting its journey in Moscow and flying via Senegal and Paraguay, the data showed.

The aircraft, a civilian jet, is owned by a division of the Russian presidential administration, according to a publicly-available procurement contract relating to the plane.

Between Dec. 10 and Dec. 14 last year, an Antonov-124 heavy cargo aircraft, and an Ilyushin-76 transport aircraft, carried out flights between Russia and Caracas, flight-tracking data showed. Another Ilyushin-76 was in Caracas from Dec. 12 to Dec. 21 last year. All three aircraft belong to the Russian air force"

[ArmChairCivvy]

It took a bit more than that https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/872/cpspr ... 976-nc.png before Mugabe was dumped

Zimbabwean dollar[, which] became worthless as hyperinflation spiraled to reach 500 billion percent in 2008

and it took a long time, too
- but Venezuela is no Zimbabwe (the first one has the potential to be the richest country on their continent; the latter WAS the richest country on theirs)

[ArmChairCivvy]

Just what happened to Spanish gold reserves, in the closing days of their civil war (though in those days it took warships to transport it):
"
Russian authorities have moved to quash suspicions that 20 tonnes of gold are about to be moved from the Venezuela’s national bank to Moscow.
Allegations that a Russian jet which landed in Caracas was due to load an $840 million portion of the country's gold reserves surfaced early on Wednesday.
Venezuela’s opposition-controlled parliament, sidelined by the Maduro regime, said in a tweet that they received information from the Bank of Venezuela that a plane from Moscow arrived to Caracas to “extract at least 20 tons of gold” - 20 per cent of the bank’s holdings.
“We are demanding the Bank [to reveal] details of what is happening. That gold does not belong to Calixto Ortega, [head of the Bank]. It belongs to the Venezuelan people,” the tweet read. "
and the quote is from The Telegraph

It could be of course that Maduro will travel with the bullion and resurface where Yanukovich did... so is it pocket money, or foreclosing on loans collateral? Time will tell - soon.

[ArmChairCivvy]

A bit naive:
"World News
January 30, 2019 / 4:03 AM / Updated 36 minutes ago
Don't deal in Venezuelan gold, White House says, in anti-Maduro push"

Once it has been melted and recast into ingots, these will be "new production, from some unnamed Russian mine"

Whereas here the flows are traceable
"Bolton, the national security adviser, said he had a “very productive meeting” on Wednesday with the executive team of Citgo, the U.S.-based refining business of Venezuela’s state-owned oil firm PDVSA, two days after Washington slapped sanctions on PDVSA. "
- you know, the same guy who had read Tom Clancy "Mission in Colombia" and had made a note to self:
this time "send 5000 troops, not a handful"

[ArmChairCivvy]

Just what happened to Spanish gold reserves, in the closing days of their civil war (though in those days it took warships to transport it)

Ten days later the Beep has put a good "explainer" on-line:

[ArmChairCivvy]

And about (Venezuelan) oil:
Venezuela is skirting U.S. sanctions by moving oil through Russia’s Rosneft:
- Rosneft buys the oil at a discount and resells cargoes to international buyers at the full price and Venezuela then receives the money upfront rather than at a later date.

Also, Spain’s Repsol has suspended fuel swaps with [state oil company] PDVSA, fearing retaliation from American sanctions. Respol had been sending gasoline in exchange for crude oil, helping ease a fuel crisis in the country.