Air Command to 2030

For everything else UK defence-related that doesn't fit into any of the sections above.
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AndyC
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Re: Air Command to 2030

Post by AndyC »

Some are arguing you can't have two aircraft types at Marham but at the same time accept three at Lossiemouth (Typhoon, Poseidon and Sea Protector) or are proposing two at Leeming (Typhoon and Hawk).

As current announced plans up to 2025 stand there are due to be six Squadrons at Lossiemouth (3 Typhoon, 2 Poseidon and 1 Sea Protector) and five at Coningsby (all Typhoon) but only three at most at Marham (and one of those will be at sea a lot of the time).

So where to put two more Typhoon Squadrons? Overcrowd Lossiemouth or Coningsby? Go to the expense of a new main operating base at Leeming? Or find a bit of space at Marham - which won't otherwise be full until 2029/30?

topman
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Re: Air Command to 2030

Post by topman »

No one is saying you can't have two aircraft types at one base.

All stations and types are different, what's appropriate for one might not be for another.

If it were me I'd have put them at Leeming, although all options have their advantages and disadvantages.

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Re: Air Command to 2030

Post by Lord Jim »

Yes there is nothing stopping putting two Typhoon squadron at RAF Marham except money. Unless all except the most basic maintenance is undertaken elsewhere you would have to put in the infrastructure to support them. Small detachments, like the Tornadoes that were part of 41 Sqn can operate way for main operating bases, but RAF policy is to minimise the number of station operating a given type to minimise support costs, especially now these are partnership contracts with industry. IN the end they will probably squeeze in and extra squadron at Leuchars and Conningsby with two squadrons using the HAS sites and two using the hard stands. Also remember RAF squadrons are now only 12 aircraft strong now compared to 16 in the past, and there are rumoured they could get smaller to retain squadron badges.

andrew98
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Re: Air Command to 2030

Post by andrew98 »

They'll be bloody 8 aircraft squadron soon with the way defence has been going. ☹️

Defiance
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Re: Air Command to 2030

Post by Defiance »

Are we still hung up on how many aircraft are notionally in a squadron?

Lord Jim
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Re: Air Command to 2030

Post by Lord Jim »

Not really, but the way the RAF operate, it affects the number of aircraft that can be deployed and the number of personnel available to support this. Also we are not talking numbers of available aircraft here. A wing, say at Leuchars will soon only have between 20 and 30 airframes available to it including those in maintenance etc. The Politicians like the quote squadron numbers so to them there would be three front line squadrons stationed at Leuchars. The fact that it station could only generate say 16 aircraft would be left in the small print. Availability rates should be improving but.........

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AndyC
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Re: Air Command to 2030

Post by AndyC »

The number of actual Typhoon aircraft available for operations will be dependent on the success of the TyTAN programme.

If we look at the number of tranche 2 and 3 aircraft and take off those based in the Falklands we have a total of 103.

Under the old maintenance regime each aircraft would undergo a lengthy period of deep maintenance once a year so that at any given time approximately 75% are available for the forward fleet - so that's 77 tranche 2 and 3 Typhoons.

Under TyTAN, deep maintenance will take place only once every eighteen months so around 83% would be available for the forward fleet - that's 86 tranche 2 and 3 Typhoons.

Thus, an additional frontline Squadron (the eighth) could be stood up from the 9 aircraft freed up by TyTAN plus 3 aircraft from the OCU (freed up by the increased use of synthetics).

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AndyC
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Re: Air Command to 2030

Post by AndyC »

Just updated the main article to take into account the early retirement of sixteen two-seat tranche 1 Typhoons http://www.janes.com/article/77413/raf- ... t-typhoons plus the contract to integrate the Meteor on the F-35B http://defense-update.com/20170421_f35_meteor.html, a new order for AMRAAM https://thedefensepost.com/2018/03/23/r ... 3-million/ and more details about the P-8 Poseidon https://ukdefencejournal.org.uk/a-look- ... ne-hunter/

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AndyC
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Re: Air Command to 2030

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Combat Air Budget Priorities to 2026

This assessment is based on the MoD’s defence equipment plan 2017 which can be found here https://www.gov.uk/government/publicati ... -plan-2017 It examines the ‘Equipment Procurement (Uncommitted)’ figure for Combat Air at March 31st 2017 and can be found on pages 28-29.

Combat Air - £5.1 billion in Uncommitted Equipment Procurement

Included in this are:

• the contract to bring the number of F-35B up from 18 to 48 by 2024 as committed to in SDSR 2015 at a cost of £2.66 billion – unit cost under negotiation U$115.5 million; current £/U$ exchange rate 1.30

• an additional £1 billion for the next twelve F-35B for 2025 and 2026 – target unit cost U$108.1 million; £/U$ 1.30

• £750 million for sixteen long-range Protector and eight Sea Protector UCAV – development U$130 million, manufacture of 24 for U$800 million; £/U$1.24 rate in November 2016

• £370 million for Block 4 software upgrade to integrate Meteor B JNAAM, ASRAAM Block 6 and SPEAR 3 on the F-35B – U$486 million; £/U$ 1.30

• £320 million on the Typhoon Phase 4 Enhancements (P4E) programme including Captor E-Scan radar deployment and integration of SPEAR 3 - £3 million per tranche 2 and 3 Typhoon.

The Combat Air budget is fully committed.

In addition, the TyTAN programme plus the retirement of sixteen two-seat tranche 1 Typhoons is targeted to save £800 million that can be re-allocated:

• £70 million to integrate Meteor A BVRAAM on to tranche 1 Typhoons – unit cost £2 million

• £220 million for an order of eleven Advanced Hawks for the Red Arrows – unit cost £20 million

• establishment of an eighth Typhoon frontline Squadron (stated as costing £19 million per annum in a Parliamentary Answer in March 2013) at a cost of £190 million over ten years

• £130 million to integrate the Extended Range SPEAR 4 Storm Shadow on the F-35B – U$162 million; £/U$ 1.30

• £110 million to upgrade all Typhoons to carry six Meteors plus four ASRAAM in QRA and air defence roles – unit cost £750k

• £50 million on fitting tranche 2 and 3 Typhoons with Conformal Fuel Tanks – unit cost £500k

• £30 million to integrate four ASRAAM on the Hawk T2 – unit cost £1 million.

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AndyC
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Re: Air Command to 2030

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Air Support Budget Priorities to 2026

Air Support - £4.25 billion in Uncommitted Equipment Procurement

Included in this are:

• the £2.25 billion contract for nine P-8 Poseidon aircraft – U$3 billion excluding the cost of US weapons; £/U$ 1.34 average exchange rate

• £1.75 billion to replace the E-3 Sentry AWACS aircraft with six E-7 Wedgetail AEW&C

• £140 million to purchase two new Shadow R2 ISTAR aircraft and upgrade the existing six

• £110 million to replace the centre wing of fourteen Hercules C4.

The Air Support budget is fully committed.

Not included in this is the £140 million cost of equipping the Poseidon with US weapons and the future integration of Storm Shadow which can be funded from the Complex Weapons budget.

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AndyC
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Re: Air Command to 2030

Post by AndyC »

An interesting article on a possible alternative to modernising the E-3D Sentry https://ukdefencejournal.org.uk/the-e-7 ... he-sentry/

Australia paid A$3 billion for its six aircraft. At current exchange rates that's slightly under £1.7 billion so would just about fit in the budget.

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AndyC
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Re: Air Command to 2030

Post by AndyC »

Normally I'm quite supportive of the work undertaken by the Defence Committee but on this occasion they've got it wrong. See https://www.flightglobal.com/news/artic ... on-449948/

A solution based on a business jet almost certainly won't be in the same league with the power of its radar, the number of personnel it can have to operate the systems or the range/endurance of the aircraft.

In addition, the Saab Global Eye is yet to actually enter service while the E-7 Wedgetail has proved its effectiveness, so the former system inevitably has a higher degree of risk associated with it.

Finally, as the E-7 is based on the same airframe as the P-8 we should be able to achieve savings by sharing maintenance facilities.

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Re: Air Command to 2030

Post by Lord Jim »

It seems they are more worried about there not being any completion rather than not being happy with the Wedgetail.

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Re: Air Command to 2030

Post by AndyC »

Order for 200 AMRAAM D confirmed https://www.defensenews.com/digital-sho ... d-denmark/

This should cover the gap on the F-35B up to the introduction of the Meteor in 2024.

It leaves most of the AMRAAM C5 currently in service for tranche 1 Typhoons up to its OSD in 2024. Then it's just a question of whether the tranche 1s are upgraded to AMRAAM D or Meteor.

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Re: Air Command to 2030

Post by RetroSicotte »

As mentioned elsewhere, AIM-120D is an unexpected and excellent surprise to see the F-35B will be using in the meantime. The 'D' variant is a very good upgrade, with a very good range and two-way datalink connectivity. Meteor may be more appreciated for the RAF in the long term, but the AIM-120D is the best possible alternative in terms of quality to carry it until then.

A rare good move in munitions acquirement to cover a gap.

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Re: Air Command to 2030

Post by ArmChairCivvy »

RetroSicotte wrote:A rare good move
Yes, agreed. We need common sense to make the broad front move ahead (rather than "free beer tomorrow" all along).

Googled the updated estimate for SW updates/ integration (The cost of F-35 Block 4 software, previously estimated at $8 billion, will now require $10.8 ) and more specifically:
"revealed by defence procurement minister Guto Bebb, in response to a Parliamentary question:

The UK’s contribution will be around 4.5 per cent of F-35 Program common upgrade costs"

So, this would have come anyway, without us changing the plan in any way. Now at least we build an early bridge to the Meteor capability (coming on stream later)
- which clipped-wing version the UK is funding alone (the last I read about that one)
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AndyC
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Re: Air Command to 2030

Post by AndyC »

Latest news on Squadron changes http://www.janes.com/article/81705/raf- ... -squadrons

IX(B) to transition from Tornado to tranche 1 Typhoon and be located at RAF Lossiemouth

12(B) to stand up as tranche 1 Typhoon Squadron and be located at RAF Coningsby

31 to stand down as final Tornado unit in 2019 then to be first Protector UCAV Squadron and be located at RAF Waddington

plus 25(F) to stand up as second Hawk T2 Squadron https://www.raf.mod.uk/news/articles/no ... e-hawk-t2/

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Re: Air Command to 2030

Post by shark bait »

AndyC wrote:A solution based on a business jet almost certainly won't be in the same league with the power of its radar, the number of personnel it can have to operate the systems or the range/endurance of the aircraft.
Not totally true, the SAAB radar is the only Gallium radar in the air, which means more energy transmitted for each unit of energy input.

It is the number of consoles that is most concerning.

Also where are you getting the more detailed cost breakdown from, or is it your estimating?
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AndyC
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Re: Air Command to 2030

Post by AndyC »

Also where are you getting the more detailed cost breakdown from, or is it your estimating?
My initial source for costs are the MoD's annual reports on the Defence Equipment Plan and the associated NAO reports.

When this doesn't suffice I go to the US' foreign military sales statements, UK parliamentary answers and Freedom of Information requests.

After that I look at comparable purchases by other nations of the same or very similar equipment. For multinational projects I look at the UK's percentage of the project and see if any of the other partner nations have released cost figures for their 'share' of the project.

Finally, if I still can't get a precise figure I look into the costs of similar class of weapons and take an average figure.

If these different approaches produce differing estimates I use the most pessimistic.

For foreign exchange rates I use the monthly average figure for when a contract is signed or else I've used the spot rate when I started this latest review.

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Re: Air Command to 2030

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RetroSicotte wrote:As mentioned elsewhere, AIM-120D is an unexpected and excellent surprise to see the F-35B will be using in the meantime. The 'D' variant is a very good upgrade, with a very good range and two-way datalink connectivity. Meteor may be more appreciated for the RAF in the long term, but the AIM-120D is the best possible alternative in terms of quality to carry it until then.

A rare good move in munitions acquirement to cover a gap.
Agreed, while standardisation on Meteor would be better, D is good enough for now.
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AndyC
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Re: Air Command to 2030

Post by AndyC »

A Parliamentary answer has confirmed that when the Poseidon MRA1 enters service in late 2019 it will come armed with Harpoon missiles and Mk 54 torpedoes https://www.parliament.uk/business/publ ... 16/144839/

This should mean we get the Harpoon II+ which enters USN service this year (and there's no reason why we can't specify the longer ranged +ER version) and the High Altitude Anti-Submarine Warfare Weapon Capability (HAAWC) on the MK 54 which the USN ordered in June.

I've also added a 13th proposal to the main article - that if the E-7 Wedgetail is purchased it should utilise the six external weapons hardpoints of the Poseidon to carry a combination of AMRAAM D and ASRAAM for self-defence.

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Re: Air Command to 2030

Post by SW1 »

AndyC

You do realise that E7 and P8 are two very different airframes that share a common name eg 737 the e7 does not have hard points on the wing. Sole source contracts to US company’s becoming to prevalent MPs right to demand a competitive bid.

Also reading up thread about the dedicated typhoon tranche 1 squadrons I believe that plan has changed.

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Re: Air Command to 2030

Post by ArmChairCivvy »

SW1 wrote:about the dedicated typhoon tranche 1 squadrons[,] I believe that plan has changed.
Do you know how? Ditching the two-seaters was announced later (but fairly soon after) than the main decision.
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AndyC
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Re: Air Command to 2030

Post by AndyC »

Yes, I do appreciate that the P-8 and E-7 airframes are not identical but I am suggesting that even if we buy the E-7 'off the shelf' there should still be one adaptation and that should be to add the six external hardpoints and equip them with AMRAAM D and ASRSAAM.

Not sure what change is being referred to about the tranche 1s? It was only just announced that IX(B) and 12(B) would be the separate QRA Squadrons. Also, so far, twelve of the sixteen two-seaters have been demobbed - 8 RTP, 2 WFU and 2 stored.

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Re: Air Command to 2030

Post by SW1 »

If your awac is at the point it’s firing amraam at enemy aircraft it’s already dead.

9 and 12 are not dedicated qra sqns don’t even think it was announced like. Typhoon is fleet managed with pooled a/c allocated to each sqn, there’s been a number of options with what to do and I believe the decision its easier to keep It like that than try to stove pipe 2 units with tranche 1 jets,thou additional sqn markings are starting to be applied to jets.

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