Air Command to 2030
Posted: 08 Nov 2016, 09:12
The clear winner from SDSR15 was the Royal Air Force with the announcement of two additional Typhoon Squadrons, an order for nine Boeing P-8 Poseidon maritime patrol aircraft, at least sixteen new long-range Protector UCAVs, two new Shadow R2 aircraft and the retention of a Hercules C4 Squadron.
By 2023 four frontline Squadrons will be available for QRA, three for swing-role operations (so that one can be deployed globally at any time), two for carrier operations (so that one is always at sea) plus the Flight in the Falklands. A tenth frontline Squadron could be created thanks to the Typhoon’s TyTAN programme. These will be supported by two UCAV Squadrons and six reserve Squadrons – one Operational Conversion Unit and one Test & Evaluation Squadron for each of the F-35B and Typhoon respectively plus two armed aggressor and exercise support Squadrons.
Since 2015, Air Command has gone beyond SDSR15 by ordering five Boeing E-7 Wedgetail AEW1 and committing to the upgrading of tranche 2 and 3 Typhoons with the world leading European Common Radar System Mark 2 (ECRS2) multi-function array AESA radar after 2025.
The 2020 four-year Spending Review allows for a 5% increase in real spending on day-to-day expenditure, including personnel. For the RAF that means an additional 1,600 full-time personnel which should be sufficient to stand up a tenth frontline Squadron, create a Squadron of Sea Protector UCAVs plus maintain and upgrade the Sentinel R2 Squadron.
A priority for the Integrated Review (IR) should be to join the French-Italian Ballistic Missile Defence project and order an initial total of 500 Aster 30 Block 1NT very long-range SAM, which are able to intercept ballistic missiles and aircraft up to 1,500 kilometres away. They should equip both Type 45 destroyers and a Squadron of twelve launch vehicles. The launch vehicles could be divided between three Flights and each assigned to a Sky Sabre Battery for the defence of the UK.
F-35B Lightning II
The F-35B Lightning II has principally been designed to operate from aircraft carriers. Each QE class aircraft carrier is capable of operating up to three Squadrons. Financial constraints and delays in the development of the aircraft have slowed down its entry into frontline service with the result that there will be just 42 F-35B aircraft in service by 2023. With so few it is inevitable that they will be required to concentrate on fleet air defence and anti-shipping, and mostly be carrier based.
Only when numbers are increased during the late 2020s and the third and fourth frontline Squadrons are stood up will there be sufficient aircraft for it to take on a significant land strike role. If the rate of purchasing new aircraft averages six per year after 2024 there will be 84 F-35B in service by 2030.
In its initial configuration the F-35B is rated to operate only AMRAAM AIM-120C5, ASRAAM Block 4 and Paveway IV. After 2024, the Block 4 software upgrade will enable the integration of the Meteor B JNAAM with Mitsubishi AESA seeker, ASRAAM Block 6 and SPEAR 3/-EW medium-range precision strike missiles.
In the fleet air defence role the F-35B is currently armed with four AMRAAM AIM-120C5 and two ASRAAM Block 4. After 2026, they will carry four Meteor B JNAAM and two ASRAAM Block 6. For anti-shipping, land strike and Suppression of Enemy Air Defences (SEAD) they will principally be armed with eight SPEAR 3/-EW missiles.
Peak Typhoon
In the short-term, the backbone of the air defence fighter force will continue to be the tranche 1 Typhoon. With the slow rate of purchasing the F-35B these older aircraft will continue in service until at least 2030. Their Captor M-Scan radar is the best in its class and due to regular software upgrades is able to match the performance of many more modern fixed plate smaller AESA radars in the air defence role. To remain capable of dealing with any likely threat these aircraft require a more advanced beyond-visual-range air-to-air missile. This is being achieved by the integration of the longer ranged AMRAAM AIM-120D which is equipped with the latest electronic countermeasures.
Tranche 1 aircraft will specialise in the QRA and red air roles with one Squadron based at RAF Lossiemouth and one at RAF Coningsby. This will ensure the maximum use of older airframes while preserving more advanced tranche 3 airframes to 2040 and beyond.
The latest tranche 2 and 3 Typhoons will be upgraded with the world leading ECRS2 multi-function array AESA radar after 2025. They should be further enhanced to carry six Meteor A BVRAAM and four ASRAAM Block 6 as their standard weapons mix in the QRA and air defence roles.
Project Centurion has led to the full integration of Paveway IV, Storm Shadow, Meteor A BVRAAM, Brimstone 3A and a common weapons launcher for all tranche 2 and 3 Typhoons. This is being followed by the integration of SPEAR 3/-EW under the Phase 4 Enhancements (P4E) programme.
There are plans for standing up an eighth frontline Typhoon Squadron by 2023 thanks to efficiencies delivered by the Typhoon Total Availability eNterprise (TyTAN) contract which will see more Typhoons available for frontline service. As a result, Air Command will be able to operate a total of ten frontline Squadrons. Additional efficiency savings have been made by retiring sixteen two-seat tranche 1 Typhoons in a Reduce to Produce (RTP) programme involving the recycling of spare parts.
MPA/ISTAR
The requirement for a long-range anti-submarine patrol aircraft to guard the approaches to Faslane, defend naval battle groups and cover the large areas of sea around the UK has been met by the purchase of nine Boeing P-8 Poseidon maritime patrol aircraft. The Poseidon has been purchased with as few modifications as possible to control cost. Each aircraft is equipped with 129 sonobuoys, five Mk 54 light torpedoes fitted with High Altitude Anti-submarine Weapons Capability (HAAWC) in a specialist anti-submarine warfare role, four long-range Harpoon II+ anti-shipping missiles and two AMRAAM AIM-120C5 for self-defence.
The only significant long-term modification of the Poseidon should be to integrate the UK’s Storm Shadow cruise missile to provide a long-range strike capability.
This leaves relatively few aircraft to cover a vast area of ocean. It has been estimated that a minimum of sixteen aircraft are required to meet the UK’s requirements. This is not affordable under budget constraints. A cost effective option would be to purchase eight Sea Protector UCAVs each capable of deploying up to 100 sonobuoys, two Mk 54 light torpedoes fitted with the HAAWC system and advanced maritime surveillance radar.
To improve land ISTAR and assist with future conflicts against insurgents the RAF will receive sixteen long-range Protector UCAV to replace its existing Reaper UCAV. These will usually be armed with up to twelve Brimstone 3A or Paveway IV and have more than twice the flight endurance.
A significant modernisation of the radar used for airborne and ground based early warning is being undertaken. Due to the age and increasing obsolescence of the E-3 Sentry aircraft the decision was taken in 2019 to purchase a more modern system, the Boeing E-7 Wedgetail AEW1. This has the advantage of being based on a similar Boeing 737NG airframe to the Poseidon, so saving on maintenance costs, and has been ordered with only minor modifications to minimise cost.
The long-range wide area battlefield surveillance Sentinel R1 is much in demand and should be upgraded and maintained in service for the foreseeable future along with the more tactical eight Shadow R1/2.
Complex Weapons: The Next Generation
The most significant gap in the UK’s defences is the lack of a Ballistic Missile Defence. The MoD should join the French-Italian project to upgrade the Aster 30 to Block 1NT (New Technology) standard to allow it to intercept Short and Medium Range Ballistic Missiles and aircraft up to 1,500 kilometres.
A number of new and upgraded complex weapons are already on order or under development and will enter service in the next ten years including:
• Meteor BVRAAM (B version) also known as the Joint New Air-to-Air Missile using an advanced Japanese AESA seeker provided by Mitsubishi and with clipped tail fins so that it is able to fit inside an F-35
• AMRAAM AIM-120D to supplement and replace the older AMRAAM AIM-120C5 on tranche 1 Typhoons plus give the Advanced Hawk and Poseidon an area defence capability
• ASRAAM Block 6 incorporating a new seeker designed for the CAMM family of Surface-to-Air Missiles with the capability to intercept incoming missiles
• Brimstone 3A anti-armour missile with double the range of its predecessor when launched from aircraft and Brimstone 3B to meet the Future Attack Helicopter Weapon (FAHW) requirement for Apache AH-64E and Wildcat AH1
• a Penetrator Warhead for Paveway IV and
• Sky Sabre ground based air defence system.
There is no doubt that ground based air defences are becoming more effective. One answer is the stealth of the F-35 but another is to extend the range of stealthy stand-off cruise missiles. Improvements in engine technology and the use of lighter materials are enabling these missiles to be effective at much longer ranges. The US has embarked on an ‘-Extended Range’ programme. SPEAR 4 should be more ambitious and aim to nearly double the range of the Storm Shadow missile to a maximum of 600 miles/1,000 kilometres.
The planned addition of a two-way datalink would enable retargeting so that Storm Shadow can be used against surface vessels and this would make it worthwhile integrating on the Poseidon, even if its range is not increased, in addition to the Typhoon.
The SPEAR 3 medium-range precision strike missile is being developed to enable the Suppression of Enemy Air Defences (SEAD) and the targeting of multiple mobile ground targets at distances of up to 90 miles/140 kilometres. In particular the SPEAR-EW variant will be a vital tool to enable both F-35B and Typhoon swing-role fighters to deal with mobile radar and SAM launchers in highly contested environments at the start of a conflict, while minimising their vulnerability. SPEAR 3/-EW will also be effective weapons against ship based missile launchers and radar which it could disable prior to the use of heavier anti-shipping missiles.
From 2031 air-launched Harpoon II+ and then Storm Shadow will be replaced by the air-launched variant of the Future Cruise/Anti-Ship Weapon (FC/ASW) developed under the SPEAR 5 programme. The ship-launched variant will equip Type 45 destroyers and Type 26 Global Combat Ships.
Hawk Replacement
UK air defence can be supplemented by armed aggressor, exercise support and advanced fast jet training aircraft. The Hawk T1/1A currently fulfils the first two of these roles but has already been in service for over forty years and is in need of replacement.
With the Red Arrows the Hawk T1/1A fulfils a valuable role promoting the RAF and British engineering. It is currently planned to be retired in 2030 and needs to be replaced by a British aircraft, which effectively means the Advanced Hawk.
In its aggressor and air combat training role with 100 Squadron the Hawk T1/1A could be replaced by a mixture of tranche 1 Typhoons and Advanced Hawks. In its maritime aggressor support role with 736 NAS it could also be replaced by the Advanced Hawk.
In an emergency, both the Advanced Hawk and the Hawk T2 could have the role of escorting significant air assets and defending them from the growing threat of Very Long Range Air-to-Air Missiles (VLRAAM) and Very Long Range Surface-to-Air Missiles (VLRSAM).
The Advanced Hawk is based on the airframe of the already in-service two seat Hawk T2 with a more powerful engine, new combat wing and digital controls. It should come equipped with fixed plate AESA radar together with two AMRAAM AIM-120D and two ASRAAM Block 6. Pairs of Advanced Hawks could be assigned the specific task of escorting Voyager KC2/3 aerial tankers and Air Seeker R1 ISTAR aircraft.
The RAF operates the Hawk T2 as its advanced fast jet training aircraft. While there is no internal space for radar, pairs of Hawk T2s could use Link 16 and be armed with four ASRAAM Block 6 to provide a dedicated fighter escort for P-8 Poseidon maritime patrol aircraft and E-7 Wedgetail AEW1 aircraft.
Basing
Altogether, the programme outlined in A Better Defence Estate, November 2016 and two announcements made since then will result in the disposal of up to fourteen airfields by 2030.
While the Strategic Approach for this rationalisation may have made sense in the world prior to Russia’s growing assertiveness, this is clearly no longer the case today. There are potentially militarily valuable airbases on the current disposal list that should be maintained at a minimum operational level. This could even mean that they are used commercially, but for purposes that do not harm their runways and buildings.
There are several criteria that could be used to assess the military value of these bases including the presence of hardened facilities such as Hardened Aircraft Shelters (HAS), a long runway of at least 2,500 metres and significant dispersal areas. This new criteria need not apply to bases in the South East where additional housing is most required.
The four airbases below are not situated on especially commercially valuable land and should not be sold.
1. MoD Woodbridge Airfield. Due to close in 2027 but has eighteen HAS and a 2,700 metre runway. The airfield was saved in 2019;
2. RAF Mildenhall. Currently a USAFE base due to close in 2024 with a 2,800 metre runway. USAFE decided to keep their base open in 2020;
3. RAF Scampton. Due to close in 2022 when the Red Arrows will have to be relocated but has a 2,700 metre runway and could become the home of the RAF Regiment, if it moved from RAF Honington;
4. RAF Wyton. Permission given for car storage up to 2028 but has a 2,500 metre runway.
As the MoD needs to reduce its running costs and maximise the proceeds it receives from selling land it should re-examine several airbases located in London and the South-East, particularly those with good transport links. Prime amongst these should be RAF Northolt. Located within the M25, next to the A40 with both mainline and underground rail services. This site could reach a premium price in the hands of the right developer.
Consideration should also be given to re-locating Air Command Headquarters from RAF High Wycombe to a geographically central, but cheaper, location such as RAF Shawbury or RAF Syerston.
Responding to Russia’s growing assertiveness three forward air bases are currently being operated from in Eastern Europe at Amari in Estonia, Siaulia in Lithuania and Mihail Kogalniceanu in Romania.
Conclusion
In total, there are fifteen proposals to be considered here as part of the Integrated Review, four+ of which have already been agreed since SDSR15.
Those that are essential include:
• ordering six F-35B a year from 2025 onwards
• joining the French-Italian Ballistic Missile Defence project and ordering 200 ground-launched Aster 30 Block 1NT
• integrating AMRAAM AIM-120D on to tranche 1 Typhoons (200 ordered July 2018)
• developing an Extended Range Storm Shadow under SPEAR 4 for tranche 2 and 3 Typhoons
• equipping Poseidon with 60 air-launched Harpoon II+ and 70 Mk 54 light torpedoes with HAAWC (as confirmed in a Parliamentary answer in May 2018)
• purchasing five E-7 Wedgetail AEW1 (ordered March 2019) and
• replacing remaining Hawk T1/1A with 32 Advanced Hawk.
Those that are desirable include:
• standing up tenth frontline Squadron
• enabling tranche 2 and 3 Typhoons to carry six Meteor A BVRAAM plus four ASRAAM Block 6 as their standard weapons mix in the QRA and air defence roles
• integrating Storm Shadow on the Poseidon and
• developing and ordering eight Sea Protector UCAV with sonobuoys and 30 Mk 54 light torpedoes with HAAWC.
And those that are optional include:
• maintaining and upgrading the Sentinel R2 Squadron
• integrating four ASRAAM Block 6 on the Hawk T2
• maintaining four additional airbases that have hardened facilities, long runways or significant dispersal areas (of which, MoD Woodbridge and RAF Mildenhall already announced to stay open) while developing RAF Northolt and RAF High Wycombe for housing and
• operating three forward air bases in Eastern Europe (Amari in Estonia, Siaulia in Lithuania and Mihail Kogalniceanu in Romania).
Air Command 2023-30 would operate:
• 42 F-35B Lightning II in 4 Squadrons to 84 in 6 Squadrons
• 139 Typhoons in 10 Squadrons to 115 in 8.5 Squadrons
• 10 Reaper UCAV in 2 Squadrons to be replaced by 16 Protector UCAV
• 9 P-8 Poseidon in 2 Squadrons
• 8 Sea Protector UCAV in 1 Squadron from 2025
• 3 E-3 Sentry AWACS in 1 Squadron to be replaced by 5 E-7 Wedgetail AEW1 from 2023
• 3 Air Seeker R1 in 1 Squadron
• 4 Sentinel R1/R2 in 1 Squadron
• 8 Shadow R1/R2 in 1 Squadron
• 200 ground-launched Aster 30 Block 1NT
• 500 Meteor B JNAAM from 2026
• 820 to 920 Meteor A BVRAAM
• 200 AMRAAM AIM-120D
• 300 AMRAAM AIM-120C5, OSD 2027
• 920 to 1,150 ASRAAM Block 6
• 400 Storm Shadow to be upgraded under SPEAR 4
• 2,040 SPEAR 3/-EW from 2025
• 1,600 to 1,360 Brimstone 3A
• 1,350 to 2,120 Brimstone 3B
• 400 Hellfire, OSD 2024
• 4,200 Paveway IV
• 60 air-launched Harpoon II+
• 70 to 100 Mk 54 light torpedoes with HAAWC
• 66 Hawk T1/1A in 3 Squadrons to 32 Advanced Hawk in 2.5 Squadrons
• 28 Hawk T2 in 2 Squadrons
• 14 Voyager KC2/3 in 2 Squadrons
• 8 C-17 Globemaster in 1 Squadron
• 22 Atlas C1 in 3 Squadrons and
• 14 Hercules C4 in 1 Squadron.
See Appendix 3a: Air Joint Force 2024 for details of combat aircraft based on SDSR15 together with the extra proposals contained here and how this changes in Appendix 3b: Air Joint Force 2032.
By 2023 four frontline Squadrons will be available for QRA, three for swing-role operations (so that one can be deployed globally at any time), two for carrier operations (so that one is always at sea) plus the Flight in the Falklands. A tenth frontline Squadron could be created thanks to the Typhoon’s TyTAN programme. These will be supported by two UCAV Squadrons and six reserve Squadrons – one Operational Conversion Unit and one Test & Evaluation Squadron for each of the F-35B and Typhoon respectively plus two armed aggressor and exercise support Squadrons.
Since 2015, Air Command has gone beyond SDSR15 by ordering five Boeing E-7 Wedgetail AEW1 and committing to the upgrading of tranche 2 and 3 Typhoons with the world leading European Common Radar System Mark 2 (ECRS2) multi-function array AESA radar after 2025.
The 2020 four-year Spending Review allows for a 5% increase in real spending on day-to-day expenditure, including personnel. For the RAF that means an additional 1,600 full-time personnel which should be sufficient to stand up a tenth frontline Squadron, create a Squadron of Sea Protector UCAVs plus maintain and upgrade the Sentinel R2 Squadron.
A priority for the Integrated Review (IR) should be to join the French-Italian Ballistic Missile Defence project and order an initial total of 500 Aster 30 Block 1NT very long-range SAM, which are able to intercept ballistic missiles and aircraft up to 1,500 kilometres away. They should equip both Type 45 destroyers and a Squadron of twelve launch vehicles. The launch vehicles could be divided between three Flights and each assigned to a Sky Sabre Battery for the defence of the UK.
F-35B Lightning II
The F-35B Lightning II has principally been designed to operate from aircraft carriers. Each QE class aircraft carrier is capable of operating up to three Squadrons. Financial constraints and delays in the development of the aircraft have slowed down its entry into frontline service with the result that there will be just 42 F-35B aircraft in service by 2023. With so few it is inevitable that they will be required to concentrate on fleet air defence and anti-shipping, and mostly be carrier based.
Only when numbers are increased during the late 2020s and the third and fourth frontline Squadrons are stood up will there be sufficient aircraft for it to take on a significant land strike role. If the rate of purchasing new aircraft averages six per year after 2024 there will be 84 F-35B in service by 2030.
In its initial configuration the F-35B is rated to operate only AMRAAM AIM-120C5, ASRAAM Block 4 and Paveway IV. After 2024, the Block 4 software upgrade will enable the integration of the Meteor B JNAAM with Mitsubishi AESA seeker, ASRAAM Block 6 and SPEAR 3/-EW medium-range precision strike missiles.
In the fleet air defence role the F-35B is currently armed with four AMRAAM AIM-120C5 and two ASRAAM Block 4. After 2026, they will carry four Meteor B JNAAM and two ASRAAM Block 6. For anti-shipping, land strike and Suppression of Enemy Air Defences (SEAD) they will principally be armed with eight SPEAR 3/-EW missiles.
Peak Typhoon
In the short-term, the backbone of the air defence fighter force will continue to be the tranche 1 Typhoon. With the slow rate of purchasing the F-35B these older aircraft will continue in service until at least 2030. Their Captor M-Scan radar is the best in its class and due to regular software upgrades is able to match the performance of many more modern fixed plate smaller AESA radars in the air defence role. To remain capable of dealing with any likely threat these aircraft require a more advanced beyond-visual-range air-to-air missile. This is being achieved by the integration of the longer ranged AMRAAM AIM-120D which is equipped with the latest electronic countermeasures.
Tranche 1 aircraft will specialise in the QRA and red air roles with one Squadron based at RAF Lossiemouth and one at RAF Coningsby. This will ensure the maximum use of older airframes while preserving more advanced tranche 3 airframes to 2040 and beyond.
The latest tranche 2 and 3 Typhoons will be upgraded with the world leading ECRS2 multi-function array AESA radar after 2025. They should be further enhanced to carry six Meteor A BVRAAM and four ASRAAM Block 6 as their standard weapons mix in the QRA and air defence roles.
Project Centurion has led to the full integration of Paveway IV, Storm Shadow, Meteor A BVRAAM, Brimstone 3A and a common weapons launcher for all tranche 2 and 3 Typhoons. This is being followed by the integration of SPEAR 3/-EW under the Phase 4 Enhancements (P4E) programme.
There are plans for standing up an eighth frontline Typhoon Squadron by 2023 thanks to efficiencies delivered by the Typhoon Total Availability eNterprise (TyTAN) contract which will see more Typhoons available for frontline service. As a result, Air Command will be able to operate a total of ten frontline Squadrons. Additional efficiency savings have been made by retiring sixteen two-seat tranche 1 Typhoons in a Reduce to Produce (RTP) programme involving the recycling of spare parts.
MPA/ISTAR
The requirement for a long-range anti-submarine patrol aircraft to guard the approaches to Faslane, defend naval battle groups and cover the large areas of sea around the UK has been met by the purchase of nine Boeing P-8 Poseidon maritime patrol aircraft. The Poseidon has been purchased with as few modifications as possible to control cost. Each aircraft is equipped with 129 sonobuoys, five Mk 54 light torpedoes fitted with High Altitude Anti-submarine Weapons Capability (HAAWC) in a specialist anti-submarine warfare role, four long-range Harpoon II+ anti-shipping missiles and two AMRAAM AIM-120C5 for self-defence.
The only significant long-term modification of the Poseidon should be to integrate the UK’s Storm Shadow cruise missile to provide a long-range strike capability.
This leaves relatively few aircraft to cover a vast area of ocean. It has been estimated that a minimum of sixteen aircraft are required to meet the UK’s requirements. This is not affordable under budget constraints. A cost effective option would be to purchase eight Sea Protector UCAVs each capable of deploying up to 100 sonobuoys, two Mk 54 light torpedoes fitted with the HAAWC system and advanced maritime surveillance radar.
To improve land ISTAR and assist with future conflicts against insurgents the RAF will receive sixteen long-range Protector UCAV to replace its existing Reaper UCAV. These will usually be armed with up to twelve Brimstone 3A or Paveway IV and have more than twice the flight endurance.
A significant modernisation of the radar used for airborne and ground based early warning is being undertaken. Due to the age and increasing obsolescence of the E-3 Sentry aircraft the decision was taken in 2019 to purchase a more modern system, the Boeing E-7 Wedgetail AEW1. This has the advantage of being based on a similar Boeing 737NG airframe to the Poseidon, so saving on maintenance costs, and has been ordered with only minor modifications to minimise cost.
The long-range wide area battlefield surveillance Sentinel R1 is much in demand and should be upgraded and maintained in service for the foreseeable future along with the more tactical eight Shadow R1/2.
Complex Weapons: The Next Generation
The most significant gap in the UK’s defences is the lack of a Ballistic Missile Defence. The MoD should join the French-Italian project to upgrade the Aster 30 to Block 1NT (New Technology) standard to allow it to intercept Short and Medium Range Ballistic Missiles and aircraft up to 1,500 kilometres.
A number of new and upgraded complex weapons are already on order or under development and will enter service in the next ten years including:
• Meteor BVRAAM (B version) also known as the Joint New Air-to-Air Missile using an advanced Japanese AESA seeker provided by Mitsubishi and with clipped tail fins so that it is able to fit inside an F-35
• AMRAAM AIM-120D to supplement and replace the older AMRAAM AIM-120C5 on tranche 1 Typhoons plus give the Advanced Hawk and Poseidon an area defence capability
• ASRAAM Block 6 incorporating a new seeker designed for the CAMM family of Surface-to-Air Missiles with the capability to intercept incoming missiles
• Brimstone 3A anti-armour missile with double the range of its predecessor when launched from aircraft and Brimstone 3B to meet the Future Attack Helicopter Weapon (FAHW) requirement for Apache AH-64E and Wildcat AH1
• a Penetrator Warhead for Paveway IV and
• Sky Sabre ground based air defence system.
There is no doubt that ground based air defences are becoming more effective. One answer is the stealth of the F-35 but another is to extend the range of stealthy stand-off cruise missiles. Improvements in engine technology and the use of lighter materials are enabling these missiles to be effective at much longer ranges. The US has embarked on an ‘-Extended Range’ programme. SPEAR 4 should be more ambitious and aim to nearly double the range of the Storm Shadow missile to a maximum of 600 miles/1,000 kilometres.
The planned addition of a two-way datalink would enable retargeting so that Storm Shadow can be used against surface vessels and this would make it worthwhile integrating on the Poseidon, even if its range is not increased, in addition to the Typhoon.
The SPEAR 3 medium-range precision strike missile is being developed to enable the Suppression of Enemy Air Defences (SEAD) and the targeting of multiple mobile ground targets at distances of up to 90 miles/140 kilometres. In particular the SPEAR-EW variant will be a vital tool to enable both F-35B and Typhoon swing-role fighters to deal with mobile radar and SAM launchers in highly contested environments at the start of a conflict, while minimising their vulnerability. SPEAR 3/-EW will also be effective weapons against ship based missile launchers and radar which it could disable prior to the use of heavier anti-shipping missiles.
From 2031 air-launched Harpoon II+ and then Storm Shadow will be replaced by the air-launched variant of the Future Cruise/Anti-Ship Weapon (FC/ASW) developed under the SPEAR 5 programme. The ship-launched variant will equip Type 45 destroyers and Type 26 Global Combat Ships.
Hawk Replacement
UK air defence can be supplemented by armed aggressor, exercise support and advanced fast jet training aircraft. The Hawk T1/1A currently fulfils the first two of these roles but has already been in service for over forty years and is in need of replacement.
With the Red Arrows the Hawk T1/1A fulfils a valuable role promoting the RAF and British engineering. It is currently planned to be retired in 2030 and needs to be replaced by a British aircraft, which effectively means the Advanced Hawk.
In its aggressor and air combat training role with 100 Squadron the Hawk T1/1A could be replaced by a mixture of tranche 1 Typhoons and Advanced Hawks. In its maritime aggressor support role with 736 NAS it could also be replaced by the Advanced Hawk.
In an emergency, both the Advanced Hawk and the Hawk T2 could have the role of escorting significant air assets and defending them from the growing threat of Very Long Range Air-to-Air Missiles (VLRAAM) and Very Long Range Surface-to-Air Missiles (VLRSAM).
The Advanced Hawk is based on the airframe of the already in-service two seat Hawk T2 with a more powerful engine, new combat wing and digital controls. It should come equipped with fixed plate AESA radar together with two AMRAAM AIM-120D and two ASRAAM Block 6. Pairs of Advanced Hawks could be assigned the specific task of escorting Voyager KC2/3 aerial tankers and Air Seeker R1 ISTAR aircraft.
The RAF operates the Hawk T2 as its advanced fast jet training aircraft. While there is no internal space for radar, pairs of Hawk T2s could use Link 16 and be armed with four ASRAAM Block 6 to provide a dedicated fighter escort for P-8 Poseidon maritime patrol aircraft and E-7 Wedgetail AEW1 aircraft.
Basing
Altogether, the programme outlined in A Better Defence Estate, November 2016 and two announcements made since then will result in the disposal of up to fourteen airfields by 2030.
While the Strategic Approach for this rationalisation may have made sense in the world prior to Russia’s growing assertiveness, this is clearly no longer the case today. There are potentially militarily valuable airbases on the current disposal list that should be maintained at a minimum operational level. This could even mean that they are used commercially, but for purposes that do not harm their runways and buildings.
There are several criteria that could be used to assess the military value of these bases including the presence of hardened facilities such as Hardened Aircraft Shelters (HAS), a long runway of at least 2,500 metres and significant dispersal areas. This new criteria need not apply to bases in the South East where additional housing is most required.
The four airbases below are not situated on especially commercially valuable land and should not be sold.
1. MoD Woodbridge Airfield. Due to close in 2027 but has eighteen HAS and a 2,700 metre runway. The airfield was saved in 2019;
2. RAF Mildenhall. Currently a USAFE base due to close in 2024 with a 2,800 metre runway. USAFE decided to keep their base open in 2020;
3. RAF Scampton. Due to close in 2022 when the Red Arrows will have to be relocated but has a 2,700 metre runway and could become the home of the RAF Regiment, if it moved from RAF Honington;
4. RAF Wyton. Permission given for car storage up to 2028 but has a 2,500 metre runway.
As the MoD needs to reduce its running costs and maximise the proceeds it receives from selling land it should re-examine several airbases located in London and the South-East, particularly those with good transport links. Prime amongst these should be RAF Northolt. Located within the M25, next to the A40 with both mainline and underground rail services. This site could reach a premium price in the hands of the right developer.
Consideration should also be given to re-locating Air Command Headquarters from RAF High Wycombe to a geographically central, but cheaper, location such as RAF Shawbury or RAF Syerston.
Responding to Russia’s growing assertiveness three forward air bases are currently being operated from in Eastern Europe at Amari in Estonia, Siaulia in Lithuania and Mihail Kogalniceanu in Romania.
Conclusion
In total, there are fifteen proposals to be considered here as part of the Integrated Review, four+ of which have already been agreed since SDSR15.
Those that are essential include:
• ordering six F-35B a year from 2025 onwards
• joining the French-Italian Ballistic Missile Defence project and ordering 200 ground-launched Aster 30 Block 1NT
• integrating AMRAAM AIM-120D on to tranche 1 Typhoons (200 ordered July 2018)
• developing an Extended Range Storm Shadow under SPEAR 4 for tranche 2 and 3 Typhoons
• equipping Poseidon with 60 air-launched Harpoon II+ and 70 Mk 54 light torpedoes with HAAWC (as confirmed in a Parliamentary answer in May 2018)
• purchasing five E-7 Wedgetail AEW1 (ordered March 2019) and
• replacing remaining Hawk T1/1A with 32 Advanced Hawk.
Those that are desirable include:
• standing up tenth frontline Squadron
• enabling tranche 2 and 3 Typhoons to carry six Meteor A BVRAAM plus four ASRAAM Block 6 as their standard weapons mix in the QRA and air defence roles
• integrating Storm Shadow on the Poseidon and
• developing and ordering eight Sea Protector UCAV with sonobuoys and 30 Mk 54 light torpedoes with HAAWC.
And those that are optional include:
• maintaining and upgrading the Sentinel R2 Squadron
• integrating four ASRAAM Block 6 on the Hawk T2
• maintaining four additional airbases that have hardened facilities, long runways or significant dispersal areas (of which, MoD Woodbridge and RAF Mildenhall already announced to stay open) while developing RAF Northolt and RAF High Wycombe for housing and
• operating three forward air bases in Eastern Europe (Amari in Estonia, Siaulia in Lithuania and Mihail Kogalniceanu in Romania).
Air Command 2023-30 would operate:
• 42 F-35B Lightning II in 4 Squadrons to 84 in 6 Squadrons
• 139 Typhoons in 10 Squadrons to 115 in 8.5 Squadrons
• 10 Reaper UCAV in 2 Squadrons to be replaced by 16 Protector UCAV
• 9 P-8 Poseidon in 2 Squadrons
• 8 Sea Protector UCAV in 1 Squadron from 2025
• 3 E-3 Sentry AWACS in 1 Squadron to be replaced by 5 E-7 Wedgetail AEW1 from 2023
• 3 Air Seeker R1 in 1 Squadron
• 4 Sentinel R1/R2 in 1 Squadron
• 8 Shadow R1/R2 in 1 Squadron
• 200 ground-launched Aster 30 Block 1NT
• 500 Meteor B JNAAM from 2026
• 820 to 920 Meteor A BVRAAM
• 200 AMRAAM AIM-120D
• 300 AMRAAM AIM-120C5, OSD 2027
• 920 to 1,150 ASRAAM Block 6
• 400 Storm Shadow to be upgraded under SPEAR 4
• 2,040 SPEAR 3/-EW from 2025
• 1,600 to 1,360 Brimstone 3A
• 1,350 to 2,120 Brimstone 3B
• 400 Hellfire, OSD 2024
• 4,200 Paveway IV
• 60 air-launched Harpoon II+
• 70 to 100 Mk 54 light torpedoes with HAAWC
• 66 Hawk T1/1A in 3 Squadrons to 32 Advanced Hawk in 2.5 Squadrons
• 28 Hawk T2 in 2 Squadrons
• 14 Voyager KC2/3 in 2 Squadrons
• 8 C-17 Globemaster in 1 Squadron
• 22 Atlas C1 in 3 Squadrons and
• 14 Hercules C4 in 1 Squadron.
See Appendix 3a: Air Joint Force 2024 for details of combat aircraft based on SDSR15 together with the extra proposals contained here and how this changes in Appendix 3b: Air Joint Force 2032.