Future UK Combat Aircraft (Project Tempest)

Contains threads on Royal Air Force equipment of the past, present and future.
SW1
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Re: Future UK Combat Aircraft (Project Tempest)

Post by SW1 »

mrclark303 wrote: 09 Jan 2023, 19:33
tomuk wrote: 09 Jan 2023, 14:40
mrclark303 wrote: 09 Jan 2023, 09:20
tomuk wrote: 09 Jan 2023, 07:13
mrclark303 wrote: 09 Jan 2023, 00:28 and would probably be the catalyst for LM to pitch a hostile take over of BAE Systems.
You've suggested this before but why would LM be interested? And would the DOD let LM (largest) takeover their 6th biggest contractor.
Morning, BAE Systems is a big fish in a small pond, it's got fingers in many pies world wide and any cancellation of Tempest would make its aero structures division vulnerable to takeover.

Certainly absorbing it into LM would be 'highly' desirable by LM itself and the US government in general.

It would help cement US market dominance and influence globally. As previously discussed, they would almost certainly 'guarantee' Wartons future by using it as an F35 assembly hub as part of any pitch. Such an offer would be extremely tempting to a future cash strapped UK government and would go a long way towards removing any objections.
The US already have market dominance and influence and specifically for F35 they already have alternative sources and production lines. Matters closer to home with competitiveness in the home market would be of more interest to them then what goes on at Samelsbury or Warton.
I would disagree, the UK still punches above it's weight with world influence and if BAE Systems could be brought under LM's umbrella, it would be a huge feather in their cap, plus it would kill off an entire strand of UK led foreign competition for a generation.
The uk government holds a golden share in BAE, RR and Babcock nuclear dockyards, it would veto any such deal as would the U.S. government for competition reasons.
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Re: Future UK Combat Aircraft (Project Tempest)

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SW1 wrote: 09 Jan 2023, 14:25
mrclark303 wrote: 09 Jan 2023, 13:09
SW1 wrote: 09 Jan 2023, 10:05
mrclark303 wrote: 09 Jan 2023, 00:28
SW1 wrote: 08 Jan 2023, 22:45
mrclark303 wrote: 08 Jan 2023, 21:40
SW1 wrote: 08 Jan 2023, 12:28
mrclark303 wrote: 08 Jan 2023, 11:07
SW1 wrote: 07 Jan 2023, 20:51 Sweden spends 1.3 percent of its GDP ($12b dollars per annum) on defence developed and manufactured a highly capable and credible fast jet aircraft. So as we spend at least 4 times that amount on defence in the U.K. we should be able to do the same.
They do, but Gripen was their key defence programme for the 1980's and even with cold war funding and considerable assistance from BAe, it was a massive and expensive undertaking.

Gripen E is a successful way of squeezing another 20 years out of the aircraft with some clever
re-engineering.

The UK has many diverse defence programmes, a good number of them extremely expensive and running over budget.

In my opinion, the current black hole in the defence budget can't sustain Tempest, without a substantial lift, or a defence review that makes significant cuts elsewhere to free up funding. When we consider just about every part of defense is now below critical mass, I genuinely can't see what could possibly be cut!

30 years of cuts have disproportionately effected the RAF, they have gone from 30 plus combat aircraft squadrons to 7!!

I seriously doubt the RAF could deploy and sustain any more than two squadrons today, any more than 24 aircraft for a few months and you would stress the force to breaking point. I take the point that today's multirole Thypoon and F35 are infinity more capable than the ranks of Phantoms, Tornados, Harriers etc they replace, but allowing the RAF to drop below 12 combat aircraft squadrons was a dangerous and utterly reckless move.
Gripen E is basically a new aircraft. The UK also has a significantly larger budget, and tempest will be the principle air warfare program going fwd.

It depends what you consider a combat Sqn I would include the reaper soon to be protector sqns in your count so on paper that would make 10 combat Sqn available. That’s a sizeable number for a country our size. We are not conducting large scale independent air operations, so beyond the primary task of providing air defence to UK and its territories we have the ability to contribute to a coalition operation. The problem is in the number of people and spares holdings to sustain that not the number of a/c.

If the manned program of record for tempest is in the order of 100-150 a/c then it is a viable program for the UK.
If we are talking fast jet Squadrons, then the UK barely has enough to defend UK airspace, that's the stark reality of the situation.

I wouldn't call it sizable, I would call it woefully inadequate to be honest.

Is Gripen E a brand new aircraft, well no, it's a progression of an existing design, in much the same way as the Buccaneer morphed from S1 to S2. It carries on the baton from the C/D, taking unfunded design alterations that SAAB had been quietly working on for many years and packaging them together with new avionics and an existing proven engine.

The difference between this and a clean sheet design, with new engines and avionics is chalk and cheese and an order of magnitude expence wise.

I still stand by the fact that at 2% GDP on defence, with an existing huge black hole in defence spending and projects in deficit,coupled with a responsibility for a third of Tempest and a very tight deadline, we can't afford it....

I had high hopes when 3% was promised, but it was snatched away, just as fast, can anyone explain where the money will suddenly magically appear from???

I hope somehow it happens....
Even at the end of the Cold War the No11 group was 7 f3 sqns and 2 phantom sqns and that was facing a soviet force orders of magnitude larger and more competent than today so if that was sufficient then we have enough today. With the air launched nuclear role now gone the strike force that supported it went too.

The gripen e is a new airframe, new engine (new to Sweden and development is required to go from a twin engine construct to single), new radar and avionics and a full flight test campaign. So if you don’t think that’s a new plane that’s ok I do.

Granted we are developing engine and airframe
from scratch but we aren’t doing it alone and the engine and centre fuselage development is the main reason Japan is involved. The budget line is already in place for tempest development.

You can of course take the position there will be no further funding of fastjet capability for the next 15 years and take that investment into other areas but what happens in 20 years time needs to be answered and of course fast jet final
Assembly and flight test, sensor and engine manufacture which will as a result close out in the meantime. It a valid decision but one that needs taken with eyes wide open.
Evening SW1, I 'really' hope Tempest proceeds, cancellation would be a body blow to the UK's ability to carry on as an airframe maker and would probably be the catalyst for LM to pitch a hostile take over of BAE Systems.

An order for F35A would be a forgone conclusion in its place.

I'm of an age where I've seen this all before and the cynic in me struggles to square the 'huge' current hole of funding, never mind launch a new multi billion pound combat aircraft.

Extra money will have to be found or something substantial cancelled in its place.

However you crunch the numbers, it will likely be Mr Starmer who has to write the cheque...
That’s not saving money that’s just spending a whole lot of money on another plane.

The crown jewel in this enterprise is Rolls Royce. They are one of 3 prime aero engine producers in the world RR, GE and Pratts. That’s the ultra high end engineering that China, Russia, India and the like can’t copy. Are you willing to get out of military aero engine manufacturing business.
It depends on what you regard as saving money, obviously at face value, simply replacing Typhoon with F35A would be vastly cheaper than Tempest.

It all depends if it can be financed in lock step with a very tight deadline. The French and Germans are looking towards 2040 plus and intend to drip feed funding, we are talking wheels up at Warton by 2035, that's a tight development schedule that requires serious and sustainable funding from all three partners ... Pretty much right now!

Am I personally willing to let Tempest go, hell no, I hope someone starts writing cheques!
10 years would be a very normal development time scale for a new aircraft program. So times are about par for the course.

There is significant development work ongoing right now and has been for the past 12 months..
Unfortunately it's been many years since a complex fighter aircraft programme reached fruition in 10 years.

20 is 'closer' to the norm in the last 30 years.

Tempest promises great things in automated assembly and rapid prototyping, couple this with the three countries bringing their individual technical expertise to the table bringing down costs and time scales.

If we allocate the necessary funding (the sticking point), we might actually turn the established world military aircraft 'order' on it's head!

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Re: Future UK Combat Aircraft (Project Tempest)

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SW1 wrote: 09 Jan 2023, 19:40
mrclark303 wrote: 09 Jan 2023, 19:33
tomuk wrote: 09 Jan 2023, 14:40
mrclark303 wrote: 09 Jan 2023, 09:20
tomuk wrote: 09 Jan 2023, 07:13
mrclark303 wrote: 09 Jan 2023, 00:28 and would probably be the catalyst for LM to pitch a hostile take over of BAE Systems.
You've suggested this before but why would LM be interested? And would the DOD let LM (largest) takeover their 6th biggest contractor.
Morning, BAE Systems is a big fish in a small pond, it's got fingers in many pies world wide and any cancellation of Tempest would make its aero structures division vulnerable to takeover.

Certainly absorbing it into LM would be 'highly' desirable by LM itself and the US government in general.

It would help cement US market dominance and influence globally. As previously discussed, they would almost certainly 'guarantee' Wartons future by using it as an F35 assembly hub as part of any pitch. Such an offer would be extremely tempting to a future cash strapped UK government and would go a long way towards removing any objections.
The US already have market dominance and influence and specifically for F35 they already have alternative sources and production lines. Matters closer to home with competitiveness in the home market would be of more interest to them then what goes on at Samelsbury or Warton.
I would disagree, the UK still punches above it's weight with world influence and if BAE Systems could be brought under LM's umbrella, it would be a huge feather in their cap, plus it would kill off an entire strand of UK led foreign competition for a generation.
The uk government holds a golden share in BAE, RR and Babcock nuclear dockyards, it would veto any such deal as would the U.S. government for competition reasons.
Well it's all to play for I suppose, nothing to stop the aero structures business being sold off.

The next two years will dictate the future of British military aviation for the next 30.

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Re: Future UK Combat Aircraft (Project Tempest)

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mrclark303 wrote: 09 Jan 2023, 19:50
Unfortunately it's been many years since a complex fighter aircraft programme reached fruition in 10 years.

20 is 'closer' to the norm in the last 30 years.

Tempest promises great things in automated assembly and rapid prototyping, couple this with the three countries bringing their individual technical expertise to the table bringing down costs and time scales.

If we allocate the necessary funding (the sticking point), we might actually turn the established world military aircraft 'order' on it's head!
Well that wouldn’t be correct Lockheed Martin was selected as winner of the f35 bid in October 2001 and the first a/c were delivered to Eglin air force base for training in July 2011.

Even eurofighter with significant political wrangling with set up in 1987 had production contracts signed at farnborough in 1996 and the first aircraft delivered for case white in 2002.

Or a400m, Airbus was placed on contract for a400m in 2003 and the first aircraft entered service with the French airforce in 2013.

So it’s in the ball park, what usually takes the longest is the political wrangle that precedes the oem being put on contract.

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Re: Future UK Combat Aircraft (Project Tempest)

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mrclark303 wrote: 09 Jan 2023, 00:28 Evening SW1, I 'really' hope Tempest proceeds, cancellation would be a body blow to the UK's ability to carry on as an airframe maker and would probably be the catalyst for LM to pitch a hostile take over of BAE Systems.
UK Gov has a golden share in BAE...there isn't ever going to be a takeover....
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Re: Future UK Combat Aircraft (Project Tempest)

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SW1 wrote: 09 Jan 2023, 20:19
mrclark303 wrote: 09 Jan 2023, 19:50
Unfortunately it's been many years since a complex fighter aircraft programme reached fruition in 10 years.

20 is 'closer' to the norm in the last 30 years.

Tempest promises great things in automated assembly and rapid prototyping, couple this with the three countries bringing their individual technical expertise to the table bringing down costs and time scales.

If we allocate the necessary funding (the sticking point), we might actually turn the established world military aircraft 'order' on it's head!
Well that wouldn’t be correct Lockheed Martin was selected as winner of the f35 bid in October 2001 and the first a/c were delivered to Eglin air force base for training in July 2011.

Even eurofighter with significant political wrangling with set up in 1987 had production contracts signed at farnborough in 1996 and the first aircraft delivered for case white in 2002.

Or a400m, Airbus was placed on contract for a400m in 2003 and the first aircraft entered service with the French airforce in 2013.

So it’s in the ball park, what usually takes the longest is the political wrangle that precedes the oem being put on contract.
Re the F35, it depends where you draw the lines, the JAST programme started in the mid 90's and operational squadron ready F35's were a lot later than 2011.

The definitive fully operational block 4 won't be available until 2028.

In a similar format, Thypoon was in development in 1987, yet its fully operational, swing role Tranche 2 format wasn't available for more than 20 years.

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Re: Future UK Combat Aircraft (Project Tempest)

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mrclark303 wrote:
Well it's all to play for I suppose, nothing to stop the aero structures business being sold off.

The next two years will dictate the future of British military aviation for the next 30.
The ability to build military aircraft is not going to be allowed to be sold off to any non UK company, even if they are a close allied nation.

LM, Boeing and GD will be scrutinised extremely closely in any future deals by the US government purely on competition grounds

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Re: Future UK Combat Aircraft (Project Tempest)

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I think you mean Northrop Grumman not GD.

But yes I've seen reports that the Pentagon is a bit concerned about LM becoming a fighter monopoly, and Northrop a bomber monopoly.

Boeing is just falling off a cliff. After F18 and C17 are closed what do they have? A JV trainer and a couple of helicopters that have been around for decades.
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Re: Future UK Combat Aircraft (Project Tempest)

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SD67 wrote: 10 Jan 2023, 12:34 I think you mean Northrop Grumman not GD.

But yes I've seen reports that the Pentagon is a bit concerned about LM becoming a fighter monopoly, and Northrop a bomber monopoly.

Boeing is just falling off a cliff. After F18 and C17 are closed what do they have? A JV trainer and a couple of helicopters that have been around for decades.
F-15 too.

For the longest time the UK government and Bae execs desired a merger with Boeing because there was little overlap after Bae had divested itself of commercial aircraft.

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Re: Future UK Combat Aircraft (Project Tempest)

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SD67 wrote: 10 Jan 2023, 12:34 I think you mean Northrop Grumman not GD.
Yes NG not GD, sorry :oops:
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Re: Future UK Combat Aircraft (Project Tempest)

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Ron5 wrote: 10 Jan 2023, 15:37
SD67 wrote: 10 Jan 2023, 12:34 I think you mean Northrop Grumman not GD.

But yes I've seen reports that the Pentagon is a bit concerned about LM becoming a fighter monopoly, and Northrop a bomber monopoly.

Boeing is just falling off a cliff. After F18 and C17 are closed what do they have? A JV trainer and a couple of helicopters that have been around for decades.
F-15 too.

For the longest time the UK government and Bae execs desired a merger with Boeing because there was little overlap after Bae had divested itself of commercial aircraft.
Well the Rolls powered 757 had alot of UK content. But I'd steer clear now, ever since they moved the head office to Chicago it seems bankers have taken over.

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Re: Future UK Combat Aircraft (Project Tempest)

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SD67 wrote: 11 Jan 2023, 00:15
Ron5 wrote: 10 Jan 2023, 15:37
SD67 wrote: 10 Jan 2023, 12:34 I think you mean Northrop Grumman not GD.

But yes I've seen reports that the Pentagon is a bit concerned about LM becoming a fighter monopoly, and Northrop a bomber monopoly.

Boeing is just falling off a cliff. After F18 and C17 are closed what do they have? A JV trainer and a couple of helicopters that have been around for decades.
F-15 too.

For the longest time the UK government and Bae execs desired a merger with Boeing because there was little overlap after Bae had divested itself of commercial aircraft.
Well the Rolls powered 757 had alot of UK content. But I'd steer clear now, ever since they moved the head office to Chicago it seems bankers have taken over.
Spelled with a "w" ?
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Re: Future UK Combat Aircraft (Project Tempest)

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Any guesses as to when there will be an update on the GCAP programme along the lines of development funding split, whether it will be based on the Japanese airframe or the BaE airframe, who will be making what parts of the aircraft's structure, how many final assembly lines etc?

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Re: Future UK Combat Aircraft (Project Tempest)

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Spitfire9 wrote: 23 Jan 2023, 19:53 Any guesses as to when there will be an update on the GCAP programme along the lines of development funding split, whether it will be based on the Japanese airframe or the BaE airframe, who will be making what parts of the aircraft's structure, how many final assembly lines etc?
I think negotiations are ongoing, the results and formal launch will probably be 2025.

I personally think, if it goes ahead, it will be a large F22 sized amalgamation of the Japanese and British design.

The Japanese want a long range aircraft able comprehensively beat Chinese 5 generation fighter.

We need a similar machine, as the RAF shrinks ever smaller, it needs a full on, supremely capable Gen 6 air dominance fighter, to make up for the ever shrinking mass.

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Re: Future UK Combat Aircraft (Project Tempest)

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mrclark303 wrote: 23 Jan 2023, 20:52
Spitfire9 wrote: 23 Jan 2023, 19:53 Any guesses as to when there will be an update on the GCAP programme along the lines of development funding split, whether it will be based on the Japanese airframe or the BaE airframe, who will be making what parts of the aircraft's structure, how many final assembly lines etc?
I think negotiations are ongoing, the results and formal launch will probably be 2025.

I personally think, if it goes ahead, it will be a large F22 sized amalgamation of the Japanese and British design.

The Japanese want a long range aircraft able comprehensively beat Chinese 5 generation fighter.

We need a similar machine, as the RAF shrinks ever smaller, it needs a full on, supremely capable Gen 6 air dominance fighter, to make up for the ever shrinking mass.
According to reliable press reports, both the UK and Japan want an affordable GCAP that can be purchased in quantity rather than a few exquisite aircraft. A new generation Hunter not a new generation F-22.

Your guess on project schedules ain't worth shit.

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Re: Future UK Combat Aircraft (Project Tempest)

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https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles ... ighter-jet

Germans are showing muscles (financial)

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Re: Future UK Combat Aircraft (Project Tempest)

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Ron5 wrote: 24 Jan 2023, 15:23
mrclark303 wrote: 23 Jan 2023, 20:52
Spitfire9 wrote: 23 Jan 2023, 19:53 Any guesses as to when there will be an update on the GCAP programme along the lines of development funding split, whether it will be based on the Japanese airframe or the BaE airframe, who will be making what parts of the aircraft's structure, how many final assembly lines etc?
I think negotiations are ongoing, the results and formal launch will probably be 2025.

I personally think, if it goes ahead, it will be a large F22 sized amalgamation of the Japanese and British design.

The Japanese want a long range aircraft able comprehensively beat Chinese 5 generation fighter.

We need a similar machine, as the RAF shrinks ever smaller, it needs a full on, supremely capable Gen 6 air dominance fighter, to make up for the ever shrinking mass.
According to reliable press reports, both the UK and Japan want an affordable GCAP that can be purchased in quantity rather than a few exquisite aircraft. A new generation Hunter not a new generation F-22.

Your guess on project schedules ain't worth shit.
No Grinch, that would be your input that "ain't worth shit" to quote your rather limited vocabulary...

Still haven't changed the name here yet Ron aka the Grinch ... Looking forward to calling your debt in on our $1000 Puma replacement bet....👍

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Re: Future UK Combat Aircraft (Project Tempest)

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Re: Future UK Combat Aircraft (Project Tempest)

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Sounds very cautiously optimistic,be very appreciated and valuable partner if join program tbh
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Re: Future UK Combat Aircraft (Project Tempest)

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From Flight:
Italy’s leading defence companies have signed a contract to advance the nation’s role in the UK-led Global Combat Air Programme (GCAP), which seeks to deliver a new manned Tempest fighter and complementary systems for operational use from 2035.

Strategic partner Leonardo heads the Italian team, which also involves engine company Avio Aero, electronic warfare specialist Elettronica, and guided-weapons house MBDA Italia.

Italian involvement in Tempest development is led by Leonardo, with Avio Aero, Elettronica and MBDA Italia

Under the new contract agreement, the companies say they will “progress technology development in support of the GCAP system of systems concept, based on sixth-generation combat air platforms operating in multi-domain scenarios”.

Rome has so far pledged to allocate €6 billion ($6.5 billion) in support of the GCAP initiative. The latest funding “will allow for the launch of technology development projects in areas of strategic interest”, the industry partners say.

The development follows the formal launch of the GCAP project’s concept and assessment phase last December, which sets the course for equipment demonstration activities to commence later this decade. The trinational effort also involves UK Team Tempest industry partners BAE Systems, Leonardo UK, MBDA UK and Rolls-Royce, plus Japanese industry.

“Industry will collaborate with universities, research centres, SMEs and start-ups, allowing for the exchange of knowledge and growth of skills at a national level, all in close partnership with the Italian Ministry of Defence,” the Italian companies say.

“This new phase is a crucial step in the process of identifying and making available the innovative technologies that will ensure our defence capabilities make the necessary generational, technological and operational leap forward, allowing our national enterprise to reach the highest level of excellence and strategic autonomy,” says Leonardo chief executive Alessandro Profumo.

Work “will take place in a framework of growth that strengthens the operational capacity of our armed forces while at the same time generating positive returns including technological, economic and social progress for the entire national ecosystem”, Profumo adds.

“With the launch of this new phase of the GCAP programme, we are developing a plan for technology and industry that will move Italy’s technology sector from the [Eurofighter] Typhoon era, into a new era of combat air underpinned by sixth-generation capabilities,” says Elettronica chief executive Enzo Benigni.

“Italian industry’s significant role will secure a national, European and international legacy, helping to cement the concepts of strategic autonomy and technological sovereignty,” he adds.

Italy’s defence ministry in December 2021 made an initial funding allocation for the “Typhoon to GCAP” effort. Research and development activities “include the study of requirements and solutions necessary to define the overall system, the creation of a technology development plan for a demonstrator that can support the roadmap and technology development and de-risking”.
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Re: Future UK Combat Aircraft (Project Tempest)

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inch wrote: 26 Jan 2023, 13:31 Sounds very cautiously optimistic,be very appreciated and valuable partner if join program tbh
It seems to be good news, I thought it was a crying shame that Sweden appeared to have put the breaks on.

Perhaps a lot of very hard lobbying by SAAB, pointing out the government is effectively signing the companies death warrant if they didn't sign up to Tempest..

SAAB is doomed to a lingering death without it...
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Re: Future UK Combat Aircraft (Project Tempest)

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How does Sweden signing an agreement with Japan fit in more broadly with UK and Italy?
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Re: Future UK Combat Aircraft (Project Tempest)

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dmereifield wrote: 27 Jan 2023, 09:03 How does Sweden signing an agreement with Japan fit in more broadly with UK and Italy?
What can Sweden offer to Japan - aerodynamics expertise? ew expertise? If Sweden has know-how superior to Japanese know-how, is there any reason why Japan should not exploit that knowledge? Cost-wise and time-wise it makes sense for Japan to gain access to expertise Sweden has rather than to develop it itself.

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Re: Future UK Combat Aircraft (Project Tempest)

Post by jedibeeftrix »

i was led to the understanding that in the absence of stealth Saab/Sweden had chosen to mitigate the lack by specialising in ECM - and that they were generally regarded as very expert in this...

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Re: Future UK Combat Aircraft (Project Tempest)

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jedibeeftrix wrote: 27 Jan 2023, 11:18 i was led to the undertsnading that in the absence of stealth Saab/Sweden had chosen to mitigate the lack by specialising in ECM - and that they were generally regarded as very expert in this...
They will certainly head towards being a 'Systems' company as the next decade dawn's, moving away from an airframe manufacturing company.

SAAB's input into Tempest will be highly valued and a boost to the whole programme.
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