Re: Future UK Combat Aircraft (Project Tempest)
Posted: 27 Jan 2023, 13:53
Certification expertise maybe a place to start. Japan has had several goes and couldn’t design and certify a regional jet.
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That's quite possible, though I think the partners will want an extensive contract covering all eventualities, i.e,the technology utilised and ensuring no-one can potentially put a future spoke in the works regarding exports.TheLoneRanger wrote: ↑28 Jan 2023, 12:20 It is possible that Sweden will help develop technologies, tools as part of "Japan's" workshare allocation of the Tempest programme, hence the bilateral deal whereas the UK and Italy will want their shares for their own industrial capability or they feel Saab does not bring anything to the table that they cannot do themselves - so why share the pot? Japan may feel lacking in areas, where Saab can help ?
Not sure this 3 way becomes a 4 way - i think the 3 main players will remain - but Japan will leverage other partners to keep "its end of the bargin up". Might explain the recent move from the UK to Japan.
Nothingmrclark303 wrote: ↑02 Feb 2023, 08:30Well Ron, if the UK wanted to donate it's tranche one Typhoons to Ukraine, have a guess what Germany would do.
On a wider note, the UK has previously stopped defence equipment being sold to Argentina with UK content, the US controls export sales in the same way.mrclark303 wrote: ↑02 Feb 2023, 08:30Well Ron, if the UK wanted to donate it's tranche one Typhoons to Ukraine, have a guess what Germany would do.
Ah yes, just like Leopard 2, it was only the huge and sustained international pressure and embarrassment by our CH2 donation, that made the ( I'll cheer on from the side lines) Germans, 'very reluctantly' allow export.
Complete different contract set up and a complete different ownership of IP to leopards.mrclark303 wrote: ↑02 Feb 2023, 08:43Ah yes, just like Leopard 2, it was only the huge and sustained international pressure and embarrassment by our CH2 donation, that made the ( I'll cheer on from the side lines) Germans, 'very reluctantly' allow export.
The clear difference between the two situations being that the UK barred sales to a country that initiated an illegal War of Aggression against the UK, whereas Germany is barring allies from transferring equipment to a third country that is itself the victim of an illegal War of Aggression. Rather different situations. Barring sales to the perpetrator is somewhat different to barring sales to a victimmrclark303 wrote: ↑02 Feb 2023, 08:40 On a wider note, the UK has previously stopped defence equipment being sold to Argentina with UK content, the US controls export sales in the same way.
Fair comment....Caribbean wrote: ↑02 Feb 2023, 10:37The clear difference between the two situations being that the UK barred sales to a country that initiated an illegal War of Aggression against the UK, whereas Germany is barring allies from transferring equipment to a third country that is itself the victim of an illegal War of Aggression. Rather different situations. Barring sales to the perpetrator is somewhat different to barring sales to a victimmrclark303 wrote: ↑02 Feb 2023, 08:40 On a wider note, the UK has previously stopped defence equipment being sold to Argentina with UK content, the US controls export sales in the same way.
Until it becomes an actual 'thing' as far as a corporate body is established and the counties contractually signed up, I would expect potential export customers to keep their council and observe with interest.inch wrote: ↑03 Feb 2023, 13:17 Could be Sweden edging closer to actually joining GCAP program and also actually getting the finished fighter, think they must realise it's going to be a powerful aircraft, personally I would like to see Poland buying the aircraft,they have a very close relationship to UK mindset and going forwards a large military,I think they will shy away from German products even if France involved,and if could build GCAP parts in Poland and if Sweden joined as well could see real benefis in future,yes I know they getting f35 ,but don't discount Poland
No it doesn’t. It has to be ITAR free and offer freedom to do with as you please to the purchaser.mrclark303 wrote: ↑04 Feb 2023, 14:38Until it becomes an actual 'thing' as far as a corporate body is established and the counties contractually signed up, I would expect potential export customers to keep their council and observe with interest.inch wrote: ↑03 Feb 2023, 13:17 Could be Sweden edging closer to actually joining GCAP program and also actually getting the finished fighter, think they must realise it's going to be a powerful aircraft, personally I would like to see Poland buying the aircraft,they have a very close relationship to UK mindset and going forwards a large military,I think they will shy away from German products even if France involved,and if could build GCAP parts in Poland and if Sweden joined as well could see real benefis in future,yes I know they getting f35 ,but don't discount Poland
Certainly block 4 plus F35 will be it's main competition.
If ( as rumoured) LM want to knock both the B and C models on the head by 2030, simplifying the programme and really double down on ramping up production of an advanced A model, then Tempest will have a stiff and ( possibly) a much cheaper American competitor.
Tempest has to be a much more capable aircraft than an advanced F35, to successfully compete on the international market.
At some point F-16 will become uncompetitive so the Poles will have to replace. The US never fully followed through on the industrial offsets promised there either....F-35 was a shoo in as they needed an advanced capability. But....they would probably opt for more F-35 and F/A-50 mix in practice.inch wrote: ↑03 Feb 2023, 13:17 Could be Sweden edging closer to actually joining GCAP program and also actually getting the finished fighter, think they must realise it's going to be a powerful aircraft, personally I would like to see Poland buying the aircraft,they have a very close relationship to UK mindset and going forwards a large military,I think they will shy away from German products even if France involved,and if could build GCAP parts in Poland and if Sweden joined as well could see real benefis in future,yes I know they getting f35 ,but don't discount Poland
There is 9 countries operating eurofighter and around 600 manufactured so far, sound pretty good to me for a non US operated aircraft.Spitfire9 wrote: ↑18 Feb 2023, 11:02 I think that the best chance for GCAP to be successful (customers placing large orders) involves roping in countries with a need to place large orders for such an aircraft. Japan, UK, Italy may order 300-500 between them, subject to cost. What other countries with aerospace industries and a future need for very advanced aircraft could be tempted to join the programme (a) to increase production numbers (b) offering lower production costs than Japanese, British, Italian production costs?
I would like GCAP to give itself the best chance of being ordered in numbers by avoiding exceedingly high costs as per Eurofighter. In the last 20 years where countries invited tenders for fighters from LM, Boeing, Dassault, SAAB and Eurofighter, the only manufacturer to fail to secure a single order was Eurofighter IIRC. Let's not repeat the process with GCAP.
It's not bad, but Thypoon could have done better....SW1 wrote: ↑18 Feb 2023, 11:21There is 9 countries operating eurofighter and around 600 manufactured so far, sound pretty good to me for a non US operated aircraft.Spitfire9 wrote: ↑18 Feb 2023, 11:02 I think that the best chance for GCAP to be successful (customers placing large orders) involves roping in countries with a need to place large orders for such an aircraft. Japan, UK, Italy may order 300-500 between them, subject to cost. What other countries with aerospace industries and a future need for very advanced aircraft could be tempted to join the programme (a) to increase production numbers (b) offering lower production costs than Japanese, British, Italian production costs?
I would like GCAP to give itself the best chance of being ordered in numbers by avoiding exceedingly high costs as per Eurofighter. In the last 20 years where countries invited tenders for fighters from LM, Boeing, Dassault, SAAB and Eurofighter, the only manufacturer to fail to secure a single order was Eurofighter IIRC. Let's not repeat the process with GCAP.
Yes but that does not make it competitive. If you want a product to sell loads in a free market, you do your best to make it competitive. Supplying customers who mostly have a history of buying from you for political reasons is not the same as your product winning orders away from the competition due to its merits.SW1 wrote: ↑18 Feb 2023, 11:21There is 9 countries operating eurofighter and around 600 manufactured so far, sound pretty good to me for a non US operated aircraft.Spitfire9 wrote: ↑18 Feb 2023, 11:02 I think that the best chance for GCAP to be successful (customers placing large orders) involves roping in countries with a need to place large orders for such an aircraft. Japan, UK, Italy may order 300-500 between them, subject to cost. What other countries with aerospace industries and a future need for very advanced aircraft could be tempted to join the programme (a) to increase production numbers (b) offering lower production costs than Japanese, British, Italian production costs?
I would like GCAP to give itself the best chance of being ordered in numbers by avoiding exceedingly high costs as per Eurofighter. In the last 20 years where countries invited tenders for fighters from LM, Boeing, Dassault, SAAB and Eurofighter, the only manufacturer to fail to secure a single order was Eurofighter IIRC. Let's not repeat the process with GCAP.
I think Turkey could potentially produce a capable product, they do seem to naturally good engineers.Spitfire9 wrote: ↑18 Feb 2023, 12:41Yes but that does not make it competitive. If you want a product to sell loads in a free market, you do your best to make it competitive. Supplying customers who mostly have a history of buying from you for political reasons is not the same as your product winning orders away from the competition due to its merits.SW1 wrote: ↑18 Feb 2023, 11:21There is 9 countries operating eurofighter and around 600 manufactured so far, sound pretty good to me for a non US operated aircraft.Spitfire9 wrote: ↑18 Feb 2023, 11:02 I think that the best chance for GCAP to be successful (customers placing large orders) involves roping in countries with a need to place large orders for such an aircraft. Japan, UK, Italy may order 300-500 between them, subject to cost. What other countries with aerospace industries and a future need for very advanced aircraft could be tempted to join the programme (a) to increase production numbers (b) offering lower production costs than Japanese, British, Italian production costs?
I would like GCAP to give itself the best chance of being ordered in numbers by avoiding exceedingly high costs as per Eurofighter. In the last 20 years where countries invited tenders for fighters from LM, Boeing, Dassault, SAAB and Eurofighter, the only manufacturer to fail to secure a single order was Eurofighter IIRC. Let's not repeat the process with GCAP.
I don't want to see a repetition of F-22 or B-2 happen here in the UK. They became so expensive that the US decided its flagship products were unaffordable and curtailed its orders. Japan may be prepared to pay an extremely high price for a very advanced fighter (due to China threat) but I am not convinced UK govt will be prepared to do that if costs spiral. In any event GCAP has not progressed to the point where it is actually going ahead. UK may baulk at the cost and buy F-35 instead. IMO the best chance of avoiding that is to make projected GCAP production efficient.
I see another danger on the horizon: 5G projects like Turkey's TF-X and India's AMCA may end up offering 5G+ capabilities at a fraction of the price of 6G GCAP. If GCAP becomes too expensive, some of our traditional export customers may opt to buy TF-X, for example, to replace their Eurofighters. I think that UK may have a fight on its hands to maintain orders from its ME customers due to the advent of a Muslim 5G manufacturer.
I what way do mean competitive? People don’t buy fighters based on performance or price. Politics is king.Spitfire9 wrote: ↑18 Feb 2023, 12:41Yes but that does not make it competitive. If you want a product to sell loads in a free market, you do your best to make it competitive. Supplying customers who mostly have a history of buying from you for political reasons is not the same as your product winning orders away from the competition due to its merits.SW1 wrote: ↑18 Feb 2023, 11:21There is 9 countries operating eurofighter and around 600 manufactured so far, sound pretty good to me for a non US operated aircraft.Spitfire9 wrote: ↑18 Feb 2023, 11:02 I think that the best chance for GCAP to be successful (customers placing large orders) involves roping in countries with a need to place large orders for such an aircraft. Japan, UK, Italy may order 300-500 between them, subject to cost. What other countries with aerospace industries and a future need for very advanced aircraft could be tempted to join the programme (a) to increase production numbers (b) offering lower production costs than Japanese, British, Italian production costs?
I would like GCAP to give itself the best chance of being ordered in numbers by avoiding exceedingly high costs as per Eurofighter. In the last 20 years where countries invited tenders for fighters from LM, Boeing, Dassault, SAAB and Eurofighter, the only manufacturer to fail to secure a single order was Eurofighter IIRC. Let's not repeat the process with GCAP.
I don't want to see a repetition of F-22 or B-2 happen here in the UK. They became so expensive that the US decided its flagship products were unaffordable and curtailed its orders. Japan may be prepared to pay an extremely high price for a very advanced fighter (due to China threat) but I am not convinced UK govt will be prepared to do that if costs spiral. In any event GCAP has not progressed to the point where it is actually going ahead. UK may baulk at the cost and buy F-35 instead. IMO the best chance of avoiding that is to make projected GCAP production efficient.
I see another danger on the horizon: 5G projects like Turkey's TF-X and India's AMCA may end up offering 5G+ capabilities at a fraction of the price of 6G GCAP. If GCAP becomes too expensive, some of our traditional export customers may opt to buy TF-X, for example, to replace their Eurofighters. I think that UK may have a fight on its hands to maintain orders from its ME customers due to the advent of a Muslim 5G manufacturer.