Disappearing Arctic sea ice

[albedo]

Arctic sea ice is very obviously on a downward trend, with minimum extent (usually mid-September) variously forecast to hit zero in 10-25 years' time (possibly other than some coastal residue around northern Greenland and the Canadian Arctic Archipelago). Of course the ice will continue to regrow in the Arctic winter, but maximum winter extent is always likely to be substantially less than in the recent past.

I was just curious as to how much this is likely to affect the efficacy of the SSBN patrols? Is the ice cover nice to have (for patrols that might venture under the ice) but really not that important? Or is it an valuable aid in helping keep the exact location undetected? Or is the ice cover not actually used much anyway, presumably because the SSBN would have to punch through the ice before any potential launch?

Appreciate that some of this is operational stuff but presumably the broad principles are more widely discussed.

[albedo]

Maybe there's no general interest here in the Arctic ice situation or people can't comment for one reason or another, but just in case anyone is interested, we're about 2-3 weeks away from the annual minimum of Arctic ice, which you can see via satellite image (updated daily) at:

http://www.iup.uni-bremen.de:8084/amsr2 ... visual.png (click to enlarge)

The NE passage around the Russian coast is clearly open (to all shipping, politics/permissions aside and without ice-breaker assistance I mean) while the NW passage through the Canadian Arctic Archipelago is tantalisingly close to open though not quite there yet.

This year has been a typical 2010's year with close to record low ice again, but the lack of disruptive Arctic weather this summer (so far at least) has meant that the the 2012 record low figure looks like being unchallenged this year.

[ArmChairCivvy]

The NE passage around the Russian coast is clearly open (to all shipping, politics/permissions aside and without ice-breaker assistance I mean) while the NW passage through the Canadian Arctic Archipelago is tantalisingly close to open though not quite there yet.

Right, hypothetically merge the EU and the Eurasian equivalent that Putin is hell-bent on building. Hence, we will sail to Shanghai from Murmansk assuming a lowered speed for 2000 nm of the total distance:
- with a 60 kt vessel the saving is 2-3%
- up the vessel size to 175 kt and the savings go to 11-18%
- clear sailing, all the way through, yields this sort of saving with a 100 kt vessel

These assumptions are valid for 100-120 days a year; if you want to make it steady going all through the year, the vessels themselves will be more expensive, ie, not economical on other routes. And once you start to go through ice proper, not just a few floaty bits, then the fuel consumption heads for "double".

If you are still keen on the proposition, then you will have to co-opt the Chinese to extend their Silk Road project all the way to Murmansk. As for now, getting anything there is sort of expensive, except for stuff that has been dug from the ground between St. Pete and Murmansk (that will obviously cost something to move anyway, so that cost can be netted in any break-even analysis).

[albedo]

My curiosity was more about any potential impact of waning arctic sea ice on CASD deployments, insofar as anyone is able to comment. The NE/NW passage comments were more idle throwaways about the arctic ice status right now. But there certainly is a body of opinion that foresees significant growth in arctic sea traffic, see eg:

http://e360.yale.edu/features/cargo_shi ... ng_sea_ice

And there's no doubt that on current trends a large fraction of the traditional summertime arctic ice will have disappeared by mid-late 2020's - not that far away and short of events like Jellystone Park blowing up - see eg the top right graph at:

https://sites.google.com/site/arctische ... ome/piomas

which is showing estimated arctic ice _volume_ (probably a better metric than extent) and derived from satellite data since 1979 IIRC. Sure, the ice will continue to regrow in winter, at least to an extent, but the more that the Arctic Ocean warms up in summer the more difficult the regrowth will be.

[ArmChairCivvy]

My curiosity was more about any potential impact of waning arctic sea ice on CASD deployments, insofar as anyone is able to comment. The NE/NW passage comments were more idle throwaways

- indeed